Barack Obama re-election odds 50-50

PRESIDENT Barack Obama's standing in a new Associated Press-GfK poll suggests he could be in jeopardy of losing a re-election bid in November 2012 even as the survey showed that the US public's outlook on the economy appears to be improving.

Entering 2012, Obama's re-election prospects are essentially a 50-50 proposition, according to the poll. It found that most Americans say the president deserves to be voted out of office even though they have concerns about the Republican alternatives.

For the first time since the northern spring, more people said the economy got better in the past month than said it got worse. The president's approval rating on unemployment shifted upwards - from 40 per cent in October to 45 per cent in the latest poll - as the jobless rate fell to 8.6 per cent last month, its lowest level since March 2009.

But Obama's approval rating on his handling of the economy overall remains stagnant: 39 per cent approve and 60 per cent disapprove.

Heading into his re-election campaign, the president faces a conflicted public. It does not support his steering of the economy, the most dominant issue for Americans, or his overhaul of health care, one of his signature accomplishments, but it also is grappling with whether to replace him with Republican contenders Mitt Romney or Newt Gingrich.

The poll found Americans were evenly divided over whether they expect Obama to be re-elected next year.

For the first time, the poll found that a majority of adults, 52 per cent, said Obama should be voted out of office while 43 per cent said he deserves another term. The numbers mark a reversal since last May, when 53 per cent said Obama should be re-elected while 43 per cent said he didn't deserve four more years.

Obama's overall job approval stands at a new low, with 44 per cent approving and 54 per cent disapproving. The president's standing among independents is worse: 38 per cent approve while 59 per cent disapprove. Among Democrats, the president holds steady with an approval rating of 78 per cent while only 12 per cent of Republicans approve of the job he's doing.

Despite the soft level of support, many are uncertain whether a Republican president would be a better choice.

Asked whom they would support next November, 47 per cent of adults favoured Obama and 46 per cent Romney, a former Massachusetts governor.

Against Gingrich, the Republican front-runner and former speaker of the US House of Representatives, the president holds a solid advantage, receiving 51 per cent compared with 42 per cent.

The potential match-ups paint a better picture for the president among independents. Obama receives 45 per cent of non-aligned adults compared with 41 per cent for Romney. Against Gingrich, Obama holds a wide lead among independents, with 54 per cent supporting the president and 31 per cent backing the former Georgia congressman.

Another piece of good news for Obama is that people generally like him personally. Obama's personal favourability rating held steady at 53 per cent, with 46 per cent viewing him unfavourably. About three-quarters called him likable.

The economy remains a source of pessimism, although the poll suggests the first positive movement in public opinion on the economy in months. One in five said the economy improved in the past month, double the share saying so in October. Still most expect it to stay the same or get worse.

Despite the high rate of joblessness, the poll found some optimism on the economy. Although 80 per cent described the economy as "poor", respondents describing it "very poor" fell from 43 per cent in October to 34 per cent in the latest poll, the lowest since May. Twenty per cent said the economy got better in the past month while 37 per cent said they expected the economy to improve next year.

Yet plenty of warning signs remain for Obama. Only 26 per cent said the US is headed in the right direction while 70 per cent said the country was moving in the wrong direction.

The Associated Press-GfK poll was conducted on December 8-12 by GfK Roper Public Affairs and Corporate Communications. It involved landline and mobile-phone interviews with 1000 adults nationwide and has a margin of sampling error of plus or minus four percentage points.

-AP