Fighting for swing votes

Prime Minister Datuk Seri Najib Razak said that it is not the right time to hold the next general election as the government's reform initiatives are not in full swing yet. In my opinion, it should not be delayed later than June.

If the general election is held after June, the Europe's debt crisis might have spread to Southeast Asia. Economists predicted that the Eurozone has began to decline since the fourth quarter of last year. Although our exposure to the European Union (EU) in terms of total trade is only about 9%, we can never be spared once big Asian countries are affected.

The economies of Singapore and China have slowed and the Malaysian manufacturing sector has began to feel the chill. Unless if the Economic Transformation Programme (ETP) and domestic demand can bring vitality to the economy, or the market is expected to be more quiet in the second half year.

Another reason is, the good feeling brought by the distributions of aid might dissipate after June. The 1Malaysia People's Aid (BR1M) of RM500 will be valid until 15 April. Unless if there are other aid distribution plans or the BN will miss the opportunity to take advantage of it.

It is not the right time to hold the election now also because the government has not fulfilled the promise of democratic reform. Najib is going to table two new acts to replace the Internal Security Act (ISA) in March. However, the main reason is because the BN is not having enough confidence yet to win back the two-thirds majority. The key lies on swing votes. Taiwan's President Ma Ying-jeou was able to win the recent presidential election because he has successfully won the support of swing voters.

Umno is confident in keeping its basic votes, particularly in rural areas. However, it lacks confidence in winning swing votes. Therefore, Najib has made great efforts in it. The new acts to be proposed in March will reflect the government's extent in accepting the aspiration for democracy.

The proposed Peaceful Assembly Bill has triggered a rebound from non-governmental organisations, including the Bar Council. Meanwhile, the UPSI peaceful demonstration had ended up as a conflict. These incidents have affected the efforts to win swing voters and therefore, the police was restrained during the Free Anwar rally.

The BN is facing a fierce competition from the Pakatan Rakyat, including the public declaration of assets made by Penang Chief Minister Lim Guan Eng and his state executive councillors. Therefore, the BN is expected to ensure that the new acts to be proposed in March and the electoral reform are flawless.

To win more swing votes, the BN must implement more open and liberal policies, and should not be hesitant or indecisive due to the fear of losing the basic votes. Otherwise, it could be easily beaten by the Pakatan Rakyat, while causing the democratic reform meaningless.

In addition, the BN should also make greater efforts in addressing its internal problems before the damages expand. For example, if the National Feedlot Centre (NFC) scandal was solved earlier, the situation would be different today.

In view of the uncertainty and the its refusal to lose even a vote, the BN is committed to gain more votes. In addition to stepping up visits around the country and distributing money, the Skim Amanah Rakyat ( Sara 1Malaysia) has also been introduced. Under the scheme, those eligible can invest RM5,000 to enjoy monthly returns of RM134.

However, it is worrying that such a populist trend might force the government to increase funding, which could lead to the rise of budget deficit.

Perhaps the majority swing voters are still waiting and observing. Let's see how the Pakatan Rakyat is going to fight for swing votes soon.

-Sin Chew Daily