EPISODE 12: Pak Lah was ousted because of 16th September

Anwar Ibrahim, on September 18th, only hours before the UMNO meeting, urged the Prime Minister to call a special session of Parliament by September 23rd in order to hold a vote of no-confidence against the PM. Abdullah's detractors, led by UMNO VP Muhyiddin Yassin, asked Abdullah to step down so that UMNO can be under Najib's stronger leadership when it faces Anwar and the threat of a no-confidence vote after Parliament reconvenes. - US Embassy, KL

THE CORRIDORS OF POWER

Raja Petra Kamarudin

The issue of 16th September 2008, the day when Pakatan Rakyat was supposed to have formed the new federal government after at least 30 Barisan Nasional Members of Parliament cross over to join the opposition ranks, is still clouded in intrigue.

In Episodes 7 and 8 of this series of reports, Malaysia Today revealed how John Soh was supposed to fund the RM300 million take-over exercise. In short, the 30 BN MPs were supposed to be paid RM10 million each as an inducement for them to cross over.

John Soh, however, refused to fork out the money seeing that the exercise was very risky since there was no guarantee they would cross over after receiving the money. Furthermore, Umno would have enough financial resources to counter-offer these 30 defectors a bigger sum of money and that would thwart the whole attempt.

Nevertheless, while the 16th September exercise may have ended in a fiasco for the opposition, it actually worked in Tun Dr Mahathir Mohamad’s favour. The ex-Prime Minister was able to use this as leverage to force Tun Abdullah Ahmad Badawi (Pak Lah) into retirement, as what he had been relentlessly trying to do for two years since 2006.

Anwar’s 16th September, which eventually was a non-event, was postponed to 1st October. Anwar was supposed to meet His Majesty the Agong to impress upon His Majesty that the opposition had the numbers. And although this may represent a narrow majority, once Pakatan Rakyat takes over they are confident that more BN MPs will cross over.

Umno was not that confident that it might not happen. After all, anything is possible in politics. That was why they flew as many MPs as possible to Taiwan for an agricultural ‘study tour’. The main issue was Pak Lah -- at least that was what Dr Mahathir argued. Hence, to ensure that Anwar fails to get the 30 BN MPs that he needs, Pak Lah must be ousted and replaced with his 'stronger' Deputy, Najib.

Meanwhile, Anwar already knew that 16th September was not going to happen. And he knew because the RM300 million was not forthcoming. John Soh made that point very clear. But Anwar still created the impression that it was going to happen as planned, maybe with just a few days or a couple of weeks delay.

And that accelerated Pak Lah’s exit and ensured a regime change with Najib Tun Razak as the new Prime Minister and Dr Mahathir as the de facto Prime Minister.

Maybe Pak Lah would still have been ousted, eventually, and Najib would have taken over, eventually. But the 16th September panic only made it happen earlier. And this was the gist of the Secret Report from the US Embassy in Kuala Lumpur to Washington on 19th September 2008, as revealed by Wikileaks, which you can read below:

Prime Minister Abdullah Badawi failed to quell dissent or gain consensus support for his 2010 transition plan during a very heated September 18th UMNO Supreme Council meeting, which featured calls for Abdullah to step down led by UMNO VP Muhyiddin Yassin. Following the meeting, Muhyiddin and other advocates of Abdullah's early exit reiterated their positions in public, while Abdullah and his camp appeared defensive. 

The Prime Minister hinted he could leave sooner than the 2010 handover, but affirmed that the decision on when to step down in favour of Deputy Prime Minister Najib was his (Abdullah's) alone.

Continuing his psychological warfare, Opposition Leader Anwar Ibrahim called for a special session of Parliament on September 23rd to hold a vote of no-confidence against the PM, a suggestion immediately shot down by PM Abdullah.  Over the next two weeks, Anwar is focused on gaining the King's approval and recognition of his would-be new majority, according to a senior opposition source. The Opposition reportedly welcomed Abdullah's removal of Najib as Defense Minister, but remains concerned that Najib could become Prime Minister.

This is a low point for Abdullah. The Prime Minister's failure to quell dissent in the UMNO Supreme Council is a serious, though not yet fatal, blow to his hopes of remaining in power and gaining re-election in the December party polls. Two dates in early October will serve to push UMNO elites toward a decision point on the leadership issue, namely the October 9th start of the UMNO divisional elections and the October 13th reconvening of Parliament. 

Abdullah's party critics already are arguing that they cannot sell Abdullah's re-election to the UMNO divisions come October 9th. Abdullah's detractors may also urge that UMNO be under Najib's stronger leadership when it faces Anwar and threat of a no-confidence vote after Parliament reconvenes. Under these circumstances, Anwar has more incentive to move as aggressively as he can in the coming weeks, though doubts remain over Anwar's crossover support, and the possibility of a government crackdown against Anwar and the Opposition cannot be dismissed.

The United Malays National Organization (UMNO) Supreme Council met on September 18th in a session intended to address PM Abdullah's plan to seek re-election as party president in December and remain power until 2010, when Abdullah would step down in favour of DPM Najib Tun Razak. Abdullah sought to regain the Supreme Council's endorsement of the plan and thereby quell calls for his speedy resignation, which have resurfaced over the past few weeks.

Prior to the meeting, Embassy sources as well as various media accounts stated that UMNO leaders opposed to Abdullah's continuation in power, including UMNO VP Muhyiddin and possibly DPM Najib himself would use the meeting to reject the 2010 transition plan and seek Abdullah's removal. Former PM Mahathir reportedly lent renewed support to the effort to remove Abdullah.

The closed-door meeting ended after only two hours. Immediately afterward, PM Abdullah spoke to reporters, but focused his comments on dismissing Anwar Ibrahim's call for an emergency parliamentary session. In response to questions, Abdullah said he had not used the Supreme Council meeting to explain again his transition plan. Sounding beleaguered, Abdullah told reporters: "Because the (UMNO division) meetings have not started, and whatever things that I need to do, whatever action that I will take, it's all up to me.  I will talk to Najib (regarding future decisions), there's no need to repeat." 

The Prime Minister added that, "I did not explain again. I just said that I'm aware, I'm putting my ears close to the ground." Abdullah did not offer a strong reaffirmation of the transition plan to the public, as he did earlier in the week after meeting with Najib. Likewise, the UMNO-affiliated media, such as the dailies Utusan and New Straits Times, that had trumpeted the transition as a fait accompli and already in train only several days, took this issue off the front page and also carried criticisms from Abdullah's rivals.

In the clearest public signal that the meeting went poorly for Abdullah, UMNO VP Muhyiddin met reporters afterward and confidently explained that he had reiterated his stance to the Supreme Council, namely that Abdullah should step down soon, adding that "none of my colleagues criticised me over the remarks...." Apparently pressed for details on when Abdullah should hand over to Najib, Muhyiddin replied, "No specific date, we just gave our views and that of the grassroots who want it to be done as soon as possible. We gave space for the president (Abdullah) to discuss it with Najib."

A major daily, The Star, reported on September 19th that Supreme Council members had endorsed a "speedier transition," quoting one unidentified council member as saying, "Let's just say this time the president got the message." According to on-line reports, including that of Malaysia Insider, Foreign Minister Rais Yatim, UMNO women's wing leader Rafidah Aziz and Culture Minister Shafie Apdal supported Muhyiddin in the meeting. Najib and several others reportedly spoke in defense of Abdullah.

A local press source, with close links to UMNO leaders who has reported accurately in the past, provided us with his second-hand account of the UMNO meeting. He described the discussion as "very heated." In addition to those UMNO leaders noted in press accounts, Domestic Trade Minister Shahrir Samad, who has appeared loyal in the past, urged Abdullah not to run for party re-election because it was "untenable" with UMNO grassroots, and Abdullah's nomination could not to presented to the UMNO divisions in October.

Rafidah Aziz was more strident and told the PM who he "would not get even 10 nominations (from the hundreds of UMNO divisions)." After hearing this criticism, Abdullah reportedly became emotional, at which point DPM Najib intervened to stop the discussion.

DPM Najib carried out good-bye ceremonies at the Defense Ministry on September 19th, two days after PM Abdullah decided with "immediate effect" to take on the Defense Minister role himself in a swap with Najib taking the Finance

Minister I portfolio. Meanwhile, the Malaysian military appears uncertain of its civilian chain of command. A top Malaysian military official told Embassy DAO on September 19 that he did not know who was overseeing the armed forces at this moment, but it would be worked out.

Press announced on September 19th that Najib had cancelled his plans to visit the Middle East, a trip originally scheduled to begin today, and will delay his arrival in New York for the UN General Assembly.  Najib's office informed polchief that the DPM will be in New York November 25th-29th, and in Washington from September 30th until October 2nd.

Continuing his psychological warfare, Opposition leader Anwar Ibrahim on September 18th, only hours before the UMNO meeting, urged the Prime Minister to call a special session of Parliament by September 23rd in order to hold a vote of no-confidence against the PM. Abdullah immediately and predictably dismissed Anwar's request after the UMNO Supreme Council meeting.

Tian Chua (protect), the PKR information chief and close aide to Anwar, told polchief September 19th that Anwar's call for an emergency session of Parliament and the earlier request to meet with PM Abdullah to convince him the Opposition now has the majority were merely "diversions." Instead, Anwar was focused on bringing down the government before October 1st by making an approach to the King (who has the constitutional authority to determine who commands the majority in Parliament). 

Tian Chua claimed Anwar had already provided the King with information on those government MPs who intended to defect, but that Anwar believed he would need to present these MPs physically before the King and that was a practical obstacle. Tian Chua said the number of immediate crossovers would not provide a comfortable majority in Parliament, and that some but "not enough" ethnic Malay/Muslim MPs would be among those defecting. 

However, the Opposition hoped that once Anwar had a slim majority more ethnic Malay MPs from UMNO would jump to Anwar's side. Tian Chua said that UMNO veteran Tengku Razaleigh Hamzah had not agreed to switch to the Opposition, contradicting public pronouncements from others in Anwar's circle.

Tian Chua concluded that the uproar over the government's recent use of the Internal Security Act to arrest three people, and the immediate release of one detainee, significantly reduced the chance Abdullah could invoke the ISA to detain more opposition figures. Nevertheless, Anwar had decided to tone down his messages over the next few days to avoid giving the BN government a pretext for a crackdown. 

Tian Chua stated that the Opposition was benefiting from the disarray in Abdullah's government, and was pleased that Najib was no longer Defense Minister. He added that if he became Prime Minister, Najib would be much more difficult opponent and more likely to use harsh measures to stop the Opposition, a view we have heard consistently from Anwar and senior Opposition leaders.