BARBARIANS AT THE GATE IN SG LIMAU: An acid test for Dr M more than for Mukhriz

KUALA LUMPUR - Mukhriz may not be former prime minister Mahathir Mohamad’s favourite child, those close to the family say his sister Marina is. But the rivalry between Mukhriz and arch rival Khairy Jamaluddin may spark another Mahathir-Badawi cold war.

The feud between Mahathir and his self-picked successor Abdullah Badawi began in the mid-2000s after Khairy urged his father-in-law, Badawi, to drop Mahathir's prized mega project in Johor - the S-shaped or crooked bridge to Singapore.

Immediately after the 13th general election, Mahathir blamed lackluster Prime Minister Najib Razak for the Umno-BN's poor performance. But the wily veteran politician stopped short at riddling Najib with the same merciless machine-gun fire he had applied to the hapless Badawi.

Why? Well, Mahathir still needed Najib to help get Mukhriz into the top rung of leadership at Umno. He wanted Mukhriz to be made one of the party's 3 vice presidents.

As it turned out, Najib betrayed Mahathir and avoided showing any support for Mukhriz, who lost despite a late-minute fight-back.

Biding his time for Mukhriz

Mahathir, ruthless and Machiavellian he may be, is not short of grey matter.

He could immediately tell Najib was very different from Badawi, who had scored the hugest landslide win ever for the Umno-BN during the 2004 general election. It was an achievement that Mahathir himself was never able to clinch despite his 22-year-monopoly over the country.

Najib, dogged by his corruption and murder scandals as well as his infamous 'bathe the keris in Chinese blood' battle-cry, could at best scrape through, and this was exactly what happened.

If Mahathir had rocked Umno in the same way he had when he attacked Badawi, the party could have collapsed and the Opposition would have easily swept to power. This would be the worst scenario for Dr M, who perhaps has the most to lose since his sons Mirzan and Mokhzani are already among the world's wealthiest people.

While Khairy - often called the richest unemployed young Malay politician - is no slouch when it comes to wealth accumulation, and neither are Najib and his own sons for that matter, Mahathir and former finance minister Daim Zainuddin are probably still ahead in the 'plunder Malaysia' game given their fantastic and prolonged head-start.

Mahathir knew that he still had to hold Najib by the hand. He needed to help Najib or the Umno-BN would be finished. But the GE13 is now over.

So too is the Umno election and Mukhriz has failed to win one of the 'great' VP posts, largely because Najib did not support him and even allowed other candidates, such as cousin Hishammuddin Hussein, to publicly call for the incumbent VPs to be retained for another term.

This, UMNO insiders say, was tantamount to Najib asking Umno member to vote back the existing team, which meant rebuffing Mukhriz.

Najib can now stand up to Dr M should he choose to

When Mahathir decided Mukhriz should go for a vice presidency, he went all out to help his son.

Knowing that it would be tough for Mukhriz to break through Najib’s fortress manned by incumbent musketeers – Zahid Hamidi, Shafie Apdal and Hishammuddin Hussein -- Mahathir publicly announced that his son had only a 50-50 chance to win.

Mahathir blamed this on money politics in UMNO. Some say this was the 'safe ground' that the former prime minister took to in order not to suffer a loss of face that his influence in UMNO had waned over the years.

With Khairy Jamaluddin helming the Youth Wing once again and corruption-tainted Shahrizat Jalil also re-elected the Women's chief, Najib has done well to consolidate his power in Umno.

The 60-year-old Najib can now stand up to Mahathir, should he wish to do so. But chances are Najib is likely to continue to put his priorities on stuff like grand overseas trips and setting up mega deals to boost his family and inner circle.

Door slammed shut on Mukhriz

With hindsight, it is easy to see that it was Najib who tricked Mahathir. And Mahathir knows it, he was lulled into complacency.

To be fair, Mahathir's hands were also tied by the delay in holding the general election, which finally took place on May 5 2013, almost at the end of the Umno-BN's 5-year mandate. He had no choice but to cooperate with Najib so as to assure an Umno-BN victory.

But by holding back the worst of the infighting till after GE13, Mahathir lost the opportunity to put in place the intricate schemes and plots necessary to pull the rug out from under Najib's feet. In the last mile in the Umno-VP race, his supporters just could not kick up enough speed to cut Najib's at the finish line.

Those close to Mahathir say, there is no question of revenge, only a matter of timing - when to exact the vengeance for the hurt and loss of pride from Mukhriz's loss.

They say it is not just about Mukhriz failing to get enough VP votes. The fact is, the most important door in Umno - the gateway to the topmost chamber - has been slammed shut on Mukhriz.

Who will open the door for Mukhriz? Najib? Hisham? Zahid? Would these men be so kind or would they already have started preparing their own heirs for the PM's chair?

And Mukhriz represents the entire Mahathir family and their clan of cronies. They want a Mahathir heir to sit in the PM's office and soon. So it comes as no surprise that Mahathir has started to use his old strategy of calling wolf!

Chinese tsunami and money politics

Without being facetious, perhaps it is a blessing that the Chinese are not allowed to join Umno or they would have been blamed for Mukhriz's loss. And if not by the Mahathir faction, then by the Najib faction. It is laughable, yes, and also sad at the same time because it shows the sheer bankruptcy of political vision in the once-mighty Umno.

Anyway, Mahathir has already grabbed at the next easy straw - money politics! That's the cause of Mukhriz's downfall, says the man who was Umno president for 22 years. If true, he has to shoulder a large part of the blame for not having done enough to stamp corruption in his own party.

Although, this money politics claim was vehemently by the party’s senior people, Mahathir has planted the seed of doubt amongst Umno members that his son would have beaten Hishamuddin, if not for cheating by the Najib faction.

Some say the entire episode of Mukhriz failing to garner enough support is a reminder to Mahathir, harking back to the time when he was kicked out of Umno by first prime minister Tunku Abdul Rahman. Mahathir didn't give up then. It is unlikely he will now.

Mahathir has been calling Najib a ‘weak’ leader, even before the May 5 general election and the October 19 Umno poll. This gambit to tear away at Najib's credibility is likely to intensify soon. Mahathir's underlings and die-hard loyalists have also taken to the blogs and the media to paint Najib in a bad light.

To be fair, they are not wrong. Najib has little to offer Malaysians. He has shown himself to be equally without principles and can back-stab the Chinese, Indians and other minorities as cruelly as Mahathir did. There is no reason for the non-Malays to support Najib.

If Najib had been strong, he would have confronted Mahathir. He would have arrested Mahathir and the Malay extremist group, Perkasa, and jailed them all for sedition.

But chicken-hearted Najib could only try to out 'Malay-ise' Mahathir, because it was far easier to bully the non-Malays than to tell the Malays that Umno had led them down the wrong and the worst path for the past 5 decades!

Malays don't need Mahathir anymore

Straight after GE13, Najib personally blamed the Chinese for his own dismal failure. The rabid Malay-championing role has now been passed over to trusted lieutenant Zahid Hamidi. With this maneuver, the Najib faction has effectively locked out Mahathir.

The Malays don't need Mahathir to champion their rights anymore. They can easily frighten Najib into giving out more privileges than it was ever possible under Mahathir. As for bullying the non-Malays, Zahid Hamidi, the powerful Home Minister, can for sure snarl much more fiercely than a Mahathir in retirement.

As such, these days, it won't be a surprise to catch Mahathir in a pensive mood and reflecting about his past glory. Even so, don't count him out yet. Whatever his faults, Mahathir is a very unique personality, otherwise he wouldn't be called a Devil by so many in the country.

But for Mukhriz, it is different. He has to deal with people every day, make decisions every day. He can't be bitter and reflect on the past when his dad was omniscient.

Many of Mukhriz's mates also say he never wanted this job. He is already 'filthy rich' and like Sarawak Chief Minister's son Sulaiman Taib Mahmud, he may question the need to hang out in a 'kampung' like Kuala Lumpur when the bright lights of Monte Carlo, New York and Paris beckon? Why indeed?

Najib may not be able to reform Malaysia but he will laugh all the way to the bank

There is already a chasm forming between father-and-son, and the father with the current Umno leadership.

Perkasa’s president, Ibrahim Ali has also echoed Mahathir’s dissatisfaction with Umno when he was quoted in a local daily that Umno’s betrayal still hurts. This line of attack will continue to keep Najib on his toes.

Najib will find he won't be able to reform Malaysia or bring the progress the country deserves and longs for. But that may not be his primary aim in the first place. Najib, sad to say, doesn't appear to be a sincere leader. He appears more to be out for the glamor and the goodies.

As such, Najib may welcome the noise from the Mahathir side as it helps him and his clique to mask their 'covert operations' of digging further into the national treasury.

Sg Limau banana peel for Mukhriz to step on

In the Sg Limau by-election, which many have labelled a critical test for Mukhriz, none of the 3 newly elected vice presidents have been active in campaigning for him.

Deputy Prime Minister Muhyiddin Yassin even made a spectacular faux-pas related to diabetes and former PAS leader Azizan Abdul Razak that may cost BN the by-election. Many in Umno are not sure if it wasn't deliberate and to sabotage Mukhriz.

If Mukhriz won Sg Limau, it would immediately raise his stock and make him a hero in Umno. He would be regarded as another shining light for the Malay community. Obviously, this is not what the Najib faction wants. To some in Umno, it is incredible that Najib could announce GST and the removal of the sugar subsidy before Sg Limau's Nov 4th balloting day. They wonder why the Election Commission did not announce an earlier by-election date.

Really, Mukhriz should not fret too much if he loses Sg Limau. He should know who are his friends and who are his foes by now. Tactically, he should highlight and amplify these facts more frequently so as to shield himself from future sabotage, rather than to keep playing the part of the beloved Prince, which he no longer is due to his dad's retirement.

Mahathir - down and almost out

While the focus is on Mahathir and what he can fire off at the Najib faction, the fact is the Najib faction may be even more toxic. They certainly have a much greater arsenal than Mahathir.

With the government machinery behind him, it is actually very much easier for Najib to attack Mahathir than for Mahathir to attack him.

Badawi, being the first new PM after 22 years of Mahathir dominance, couldn't catch on fast enough to counter his old boss.

But 10 years have passed since Mahathir retired, and Mahathir's enemies have been able to read his game and analyze his moves. They know how to neutralize him.

The outlook for Mahathir is no longer bright as far as politics in Malaysia is concerned. The same would apply for Mukhriz.

It looks like Sg Limau may be safe for PAS after all.

Malaysia Chronicle