WHY BARISAN NASIONAL MIGHT LOSE THE NEXT ELECTION

And the actions of the Umno veterans and party leaders in running down their own President, aided by the ‘fuel’ thrown in by the opposition regarding many issues concerning the Prime Minister, can only ensure that Barisan Nasional will be in deep shit in the next general election.

THE CORRIDORS OF POWER

Raja Petra Kamarudin

There has been a lot of talk over the last week or so regarding the possibility of Barisan Nasional losing the coming general election and the reason why this may happen. The interesting thing is this talk is coming from veteran Umno leaders such as Tun Dr Mahathir Mohamad and Tan Sri Tengku Razaleigh Hamzah. Nevertheless, what they are expressing is what many Umno people themselves are concerned about.

Actually, analysing the voters’ sentiments is easier on hindsight. On foresight even the experts can be wrong, as the 2008 and 2013 general elections have proven. And this is because there is no one factor but many factors that make up voter’s sentiments and this changes from place to place and even from time to time.

I would say the following factors are probably the crucial issues to take into consideration, although not necessarily in that order of priority.

One would be the candidate. A popular candidate, local born, one with charm and charisma who can also speak well, friendly and humble, and so on, would give that person an edge if the opposing candidate is the opposite to all that.

There is no denying that money also plays a part. A candidate who has bottomless pockets compared to one who is working on a shoestring budget would make a vast difference, especially when it comes to ‘motivating’ the machinery to work. Parties like PAS and DAP, however, might not face so much of a problem but as for the others, PKR included, it is still about ‘money talks, bullshit walks’.

Machinery is very important. If you do not have anyone working for you then you are at a disadvantage — like what happened to PKR Deputy President Abdul Rahman Othman in 2004 as one example, who only had his family and no one else and hence lost his deposit.

Another very crucial factor would be internal sabotage. Many strong candidates have been known to lose when his or her own machinery sabotaged him or her. This was mainly due to internal rivalry and unhappiness with the candidate (such as when an outsider or newcomer is fielded). Internal sabotage is probably one of the more crucial factors and many a ‘giant’ has fallen because of this.

The above are all factors related to the candidate. At the same time, however, we need to also look at the factors related to the voters. Different voters at different times and at different places have different reasons why they vote one way or another.

One thing that cannot be denied is that the Internet and social media play a big role in elections since 2005/2006. This is not only true for Malaysia but is the phenomena the world over. In fact, President Obama conducted his entire campaign and fund raising exercise by just using the Internet.

At the time of Merdeka, 80% of the voters lived in the rural areas while 20% in the urban areas. That trend is very rapidly changing to the other way around and this is bad news for Barisan Nasional that requires more rural support since the urban voters are anti-establishment by nature (the world over).

We must admit that the opposition has not only taken advantage of the Internet but is also very good at that game. In late 2007, the Minister of Information said that the Internet is no threat to Barisan Nasional. The Internet is only for kids to play games and to look for cheap air tickets. That assumption was proven wrong just five months later in March 2008.

And we cannot deny that urban voters are more Internet-savvy (plus anti-establishment, of course). And to make matters worse, you do not need a computer or Internet connection any longer since almost everyone owns a smart phone and all you need is your phone to read the news. And Internet news is not yesterday’s news like the print media but can be seen in ‘real time’.

Next we have the trend (or ‘fashion’), and trend here can mean many things plus the trend can be influenced by events that happen all over the world or in the neighbouring countries. And that is why countries, say, like Singapore are watching events in Malaysia with interest and concern because what is happening in Malaysian can spill over into Singapore.

For example, the 1999 election success for the opposition on the back of the Reformasi movement was partly influenced by the Reformasi wave in Indonesia. It was no accident that Anwar Ibrahim used ‘Reformasi’ as his rallying call after he saw that it triggered changes in Indonesia.

Today, of course, the trend is on freedom of information/media and freedom of opinion, speech, and so on. Hence the spate of arrests under the Sedition Act may actually work against Barisan Nasional.

The government can argue that they are just applying the law (which, therefore, is legal) but the unhappiness of Malaysians is regarding whether Malaysia still needs such a law when the ‘maker’ of that 1948 law, Britain, has abolished their own Sedition Act on 1st January 2010.

I fear that the Sedition Act, or rather its use against opposition leaders, may backfire on the government. And this is something the government needs to seriously consider, amongst many other issues no doubt.

Race and religion are two very strong factors in an election, especially for Malaysia. On top of that we have parochialism, territorialism and nationalism. For example, Kelantanese think of themselves as Muslims first, Kelantanese second, Malays third, and Malaysians last. And that is why Kelantanese vote the way they do.

In Sabah and Sarawak this trend is moving in that direction as well. Sabahans and Sarawakians think of themselves as Sabahans and Sarawakians first and race and religion have no place in East Malaysian politics. Many Sabahans and Sarawakians do not think so much in terms of being Malaysian and some, in fact, resent their states being part of Malaysia. This is the reality in Sabah and Sarawak.

Then, of course, we have the economy. At the end of the day people vote government when the economy is good and they are not troubled by financial problems. But when money becomes an issue they will vote opposition. This, again, is a world trend.

And the opposition has successfully convinced Malaysians that the country is going bankrupt due to the government’s bad economic policies and wastage of public funds and that the people are going to suffer even more as time goes on if the government is not changed. And the Internet is the tool the opposition is using, successfully too, to sway public sentiments and influence public opinion.

Hence the talk over the last few days that this or that may cause Barisan Nasional to lose the coming election is not as simple as these critics make it sound. There are many factors and at times a combination of some or all these factors. And different people in different places will have different reasons for voting this way or the other.

In short, there is no such thing as one cure for all. For example, in Sabah, immigration and federalisation are big issues whereas in Kelantan it would be Islam and Hudud. The fact that the Barisan Nasional machinery is unable to respond to those issues raised by the opposition would, in turn, have a bearing on voters’ sentiments in the urban areas.

Finally, of course, would be party or coalition solidarity. This, currently, is lacking in both Barisan Nasional and Pakatan Rakyat. But we are yet to know which coalition is going to suffer the most due to internal bickering. But if Umno continues to demonstrate division and lack of confidence with the party leadership, the Prime Minister in particular, rest assured that Barisan Nasional will be paying the price in the coming general election, as the Umno veterans are saying.

And the actions of the Umno veterans and party leaders in running down their own President, aided by the ‘fuel’ thrown in by the opposition regarding many issues concerning the Prime Minister, can only ensure that Barisan Nasional will be in deep shit in the next general election.