WRONG GAME NAJIB: Pakatan split over hudud won't benefit Umno-BN but will boost DAP

THE unanimous approval of the Kelantan Syariah Criminal Code II 1993 aka Hudud on March 19 by the Kelantan State Legislative Assembly will test the ability of the Barisan Nasional (BN) and Pakatan Rakyat (PR) to continue to survive as multi-ethnic and multi-faith coalitions.

The Kelantan vote introduces a new element to the multi-ethnic and multi-faith politics of the country i.e voting based on individual conscience.

The bill would not have received unanimous “ayes” from all the 44 members – 31 PAS, 12 BN (Umno) and one PKR – had it not been for the conscience vote.

The Kelantan Umno and PKR state assembly members, being Muslims, clearly voted not on partisan ground but for their religious conscience.

Policy wise, both the BN and PKR are against the Kelantan Hudud. Even among Umno legislators not all are for the code. But all the Umno and the solitary PKR representatives voted for the amendments.

The BN parties like the MCA and Gerakan squarely condemned the bill. The Gerakan had gone to the extent of taking the issue to court. In condemning the bill, they indirectly condemned Umno whose legislators voted for the bill.

Interestingly, the chiefs of the BN parties chose the same day (March 19) to pledge their support to the Prime Minister, (Datuk Seri) Mohd Najib Abdul Razak who is facing discontent of his own party members.

The PKR President (Datin Seri) Dr Wan Azizah Wan Ismail accused PAS of betraying the 2011 PR agreement on the issue.

The MCA uses the event to smear the DAP and many in Umno are hoping that Kelantan Hudud will deliver a deathblow to the PR.

How Will Voters React?

There is confusion and uncertainty all around. The question is how will the voters break all this down and decide which of the two coalitions to support in future.

Many non-Muslim voters will from now on be more circumspect when supporting Muslim candidates from both camps because when it comes to the crunch (like Hudud) they will vote not according to party policies but individual conscience.

Theoretically, this will make it more difficult for the DAP to continue to partner PAS and PKR while the non-Malay parties of the BN would find it harder to attract non-Muslim votes. This will further benefit the DAP that already has the monopoly over Chinese votes and make the Chinese parties of the BN even weaker.

Even without Hudud issue the MCA, Gerakan and the MIC are already finding it hard to attract non-Malay support, in particular among the Chinese.

The Kelantan vote could also dampen the DAP’s quest to add more Malays and Muslims to its ranks. There is no guarantee that a DAP Muslim legislator would not vote based on his or her religious conscience when facing the Hudud-type issues.

Another danger that cannot be overlooked is the possibility that issues like Hudud and the demand by some Christians to use the word “Allah” in the Peninsula will radicalise some Muslims and turn them into extremists and militants.

The Hudud issue will become even more complicated and challenging for the BN and PR if PAS succeeds in tabling a private member’s bill in the Dewan Rakyat.

Online media reports said PAS President, (Datuk Seri) Abdul Hadi Awang, plans to table such a bill in the Parliament in May to enable Kelantan to implement the March 19 amendments.

If the PR breaks up due to Hudud, there is no guarantee that the BN will reap the harvest. The Chinese could become even more resolute in their support for the DAP.

Umno will have to compete for Malay votes with PAS and, to a lesser degree, with PKR. The Malay votes will still split three ways unless Umno and PAS get back together once again but that may have the effect of dampening further the support of the non-Muslims for the BN. - http://kadirjasin.blogspot.com/