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Monday, September 28, 2015

Who after Najib?

Has Tun M found the heir apparent for Malaysia?

It is a Sunday. Not the best day to talk politics. Time for family, leisure and errands.

Those going balik kampong for Hari Raya Haji and school holidays will be streaming back to their respective homes. The highway will be packed and traffic will be slow. Hmmm ... why not as it provide something to read on the smartphone? 

More so, there are something interesting in Tun Dr Mahathir's latest posting here 2 days ago. One particularly, he seemed to have reached a phase of repeating himself.

According to Joseph Goebbel, repeating is an integral part of propaganda. But then, there will be those especially the Kelab Che Det-type that will vehemently oppose the description of propaganda.

1MDB thinks otherwise. They regret that "Mahathir easily forget". They felt he "continues to reuse and recycle stale and unproven allegations, which have repeatedly been proven wrong."

It is convenient to forget because according to a World War II propaganda manual, it is to address to "the least intelligent". Roosevelt said, "Repetition does not transform a lie into a truth."

Instead of repeating himself in the last two months of postings, Tun M should lay out the proofs to justify his refusal to believe the explanations. Creeping normality propaganda gave the impression the majority agreed Najib halted investigation.

Without doing so, there is insufficient legal basis for Tun M to get him to withdraw. His rationale is subjective as one opinion against another.

If the past is a predictor of the future, the repeating phase is the crossroad where Tun M is unable to go forward or will go down to reach out to the masses. It could spell the end of Najib.

The new target being bandied around is December. Time to think of a successor.

Zahid 

Thus far most visible, Najib has chosen Dato Ahmad Zahid Hamidi as his successor by removing Tan Sri Muhyiddin Yassin.

It automatically dispel the popular believe that he will bring up his cousin, Dato Hishamuddin Hussein Onn as successor.

Though Hishamuddin has more exposure and trained for the position than Zahid, many felt it is not viable for Hishamuddin since he came third in the VP race by miles to Zahid and Dato Shafie Apdal. Zahid came first twice.

Shafie is hardly an option. His mind is only set on being Sabah Chief Minister. Has exceptionally too many skeleton in his cupboard. Approach to remain in power in his constituency is to perpetuate a dependent mentality. That sucks to high heaven!

To be fair to Zahid, he is not the same person of the past. High time to let bygone of his Youth Chief and reformasi days be bygone. Thus far, he has been steady in his various Ministerial positions. He has not meddle in the process and structure of government. Relatively much controversy.   

One handicap is English. He does not sound comfortable speaking it. Eventually address the United Nation General Assembly. Can be hyped for the pejuang bahasa's false sense of pride.

Remember that Malaysia is the 16th largest trading nation. English is important in communication for trade, diplomacy, law, etc. The Prime Minister cannot be someone insular but global in outlook, awareness and presence.

Muhyiddin

Many has discounted Tan Sri Muhyiddin Yassin as possible the next Prime Minister but lets not forget that he is still the Deputy UMNO President. Say something happened to Najib like arrested by FBI or abducted by CIA, then he could not stay on.

Zahid can deputise for a while but not on a permanent basis. Void of any other influential personality, Tun M's loudmouth voice and chorused by others like Pak Lah, and Tun Musa will want Muhyiddin as PM. He is still member of Parliament and still Chief Whip.

Maybe Muhyiddin is not as exposed and groomed for Premiership like Najib or Hishamuddin. In football, there is the spine. Similarly, in administration, there are the important positions like Finance, Foreign Affairs, Home, Defense, and Information.

Education used to be for its political value but not any more. Most important UMNO positions are not held by the Cikgu as it used to in the past. That is the only key position Muhyiddin have held.

In the previous cabinet, Muhyiddin is a long serving member. He can match Najib in terms of capability but trails in terms of expose and global presence. Remember 16th largest trading nation.

The worry is his past as Johor Menteri Besar will be dug back.  

Muhyiddin is loyal to the Amirul Mukminin. He has been reluctant to express anything visionary to not supercede Najib. However, when it warrants for, he is unafraid to speak up as he did to Pak Lah and it led him to willingly withdraw. Najib side had long been wary of this.

In the latest episode, someone did a number on him to viral a closed session speech at Janda Baik. Since it is already out, he had to meet audience expectation to explain himself. Not to be forgotten that his first public "outburst" on 1MDB was to call for the resignation of the Board of Directors. It was a sensible move but Najib is not in the habit of sacking people and keeps all the deadwoods.

The rumour making it's round is Muhyiddin had collaborated with former Attorney General, Tan Sri Gani Patail to arrest Najib and it was planned after the cancelled UMNO Supreme Council Meeting. The absurd thing is he is not Home Minister to do so.

Zahid has no issue and still remain cordial with Muhyiddin. At one time when there was talk of a Najib-Hishamuddin tag team, there was also the Muhyiddin-Zahid tag team. It is not impossible for Zahid to give way to Muhyiddin.

Having once been Najib's political secretary, Zahid had always been a Najib man.

It is widely made known by Muhyiddin that he had been reluctant to be PM. Some quarter said he is not excited to clean Najib's mess. Najib's mess is also Pak Lah and Tun M legacy issues. There are those in the late 60s saying he better not cause he is the same age as them.

Others

Also along the issue of age is Tengku Razaleigh.

There is a group of dreamers still thinking he is the only choice left for Malaysia. None in the current crop of leaders fit the bill.

If calls for Muhyiddin to be appointed PM, it will be Ku Li's boys that will whack him down though they were the batu api(instigator) to push Muhyiddin in the ring with Najib.

Ku Li has credentials but that is the past. Someone whose left a particularly branch of law enforcement only 8 years ago had to relearn again. His last days in cabinet was 1987. That's the year most of the Gen Y executives in the mid-20s were born.

He is out of touch. The world have changed for this Keynesian practitioner. Malaysia is no more in the phase of rural development. Institutional building is an out-dated idea. The man's 78 year old for crying out loud.

The country need a PM not a royal still berpatik patik ... Lets bite the bullet and move on.

There are other long shots like Dato Nazri Aziz and Dato Mustapha Mohamed.

One interesting out-of-the-box theory, not the one claiming Qada and Qadar do not exist in Islam, is heard.


One officer to a "Minister" was saying, "Enough enough with all these old leaders and their past. Be it Pak Lah or Najib, it is about a past leader or generation of leaders till grappling to hold on to the past. Whether it is Najib or Muhyiddin or even Zahid, it will bring back the past in one way or another."

When asked for his solution, in which even Tun M does not have one but only obsessed to bring those not subjugating themselves to him down, he said to cut off the past and start afresh.

"Let's put Hishamuddin as PM, then Mukhriz and after that KJ."

One theory say Hishamuddin will be Deputy Prime Minister when Najib solve all the issues before passing the mantle to Zahid.

But now Hishamudfin to be PM directly. Without delving into his endless fumbling, the idea of a clean cut is interesting.

Mukhriz has some experiance in management and admistration but he is too much a nice guy in politics. His dad maybe dragging him down now but he almost thrown out Hishamuddin with only a ragtag campaign team.

KJ could stop Mukhriz so Hishamuddin should convince him to give way. After all, he is now in sync with Tun M. Thus far, KJ has to still learn the ropes in management or administration. Its a different ball of wax from being a smart alec than debating.

Opposition

It will not be fair to discount opposition leaders since they could be taking over the country. Who are the likely one?

PAS will offer Dato Haji Hadi Awang. But, he failed as Menteri Besar of Terengganu.

He was more of a Ustaz teaching at masjid and left the running to Dato Mustapha Ali. Unfortunately, we can forget of Stopa who had been known in PAS circle as Anwarinas in disguise.

If Hadi can't, the Deputy Tuan Ibrahim is far from able.

If Tan Sri Khalid Ibrahim join PAS, he is an option. However, he is as old as Muhyiddin and his foray as Selangor MB shows he is only a corporate man.

But can PAS takeover the country after being left out of Pakatan Harapan?  


Say DAP supported her since she is Opposition leader, could dizzy Datin Seri Dr Wan Azizah be PM? 

Nah ... she can't. Too blur.

She will be PM long enough to get Anwar pardoned and wait out till Anwar could run again for Permatang Pauh to quit. Already first of PH agenda is for Anwar to be PM.

Supposed Kak Wan give way to Azmin Ali. After all, she said, "Saya cuma nenek. Nak jaga cucu." Thus far, Azmin Ali is no better than KJ or Mukhriz but the Gen Y will presumably be OK.

However, Anwar knows when in power, it is difficut to let go. Will he allow Azmin since he was pissed as hell when Azmin seized it from Kak Wan to be MB of Selangor?    

There is Mat Sabu of PAN with a silent tart. Are you kidding?


Then bite the bullet and have Lim Kit Siang or Lim Guan Eng as PM.

Forget about Kit Siang having no confident Najib can be toppled now by vote of no confidence [read his blog here]. Lets not bother about his already advanced age.

After all, some of Tun M people are already saying it is no more about saving UMNO but the country. Tun M is willing to use foreign medias, work with foreign subversive elements and attend Bersih rally.

Off course, DAP must have Tun M consent and not disappoint him or they will suffer the same fate as many in UMNO. -Another Brick in the Wall

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