Will Sarawak BN parties realign for political survival?

ANALYSIS | Will Sarawak BN, led by Parti Pesaka Bumiputera (PBB), shift to Pakatan Harapan? The simple answer seems to be no, but something more complicated may transpire.

In less than 72 hours since assuming federal power, Harapan needs as much support as it can get from the remaining members of the Parliament to implement the items on their agenda.

Malaysiakini's exclusive report on the meeting between Prime Minister Dr Mahathir Mohamad, former finance minister Daim Zainuddin and Sarawak governor Abdul Taib Mahmud has stirred much conversations in the East Malaysian state.

Sarawak DAP and PKR chiefs, Chong Chieng Jen and Baru Bian, vehemently rejected the idea of PBB and other state BN component joining Harapan – with Chong saying yesterday that it would be akin to “Umno joining Harapan at the national level.”

Though Taib is no longer chief minister, he still appears to wield much influence within the party and state coalition – evidenced by his daughter, Hanifah Hajar Taib, making her political debut in the recent polls, winning the Mukah seat.

Though the state elections are only slated for 2021, GE14 saw Sarawak BN lose six of the 25 parliamentary seats it held previously, which may in turn affect their chances in the state election – especially with Harapan components PKR and DAP gaining ground.

In 2013, DAP only managed to win Bandar Kuching, Stampin, Sarikei and Lanang, while PKR won a solitary seat, Miri.

In this week’s polls, however, Harapan managed to unlock traditional Dayak votes in the interiors, taking the Bidayuh-majority seats of  Mas Gading and Puncak Borneo, the Iban-majority seats of Selangau, and Saratok.

Two other interior seats in Julau and Lubok Antu were snatched by Harapan-aligned independents, Larry Sng and Jugah Muyang.

No Satem factor

Chief Minister Abang Johari Abang Openg may not survive the 'tsunami' against BN that may jeopardise the results of the landslide victory the late Adenan Satem delivered in 2016.

Sarawak BN won the state election with 87.8 percent supermajority in the house, with PBB’s 39 seats – three seats short of a majority that would allow it to govern on its own – later increasing to 45.

Banking on Adenan and state nationalism sentiment in 2016 election, Sarawak BN was able to counter the ongoing scandals involving former prime minister Najib Abdul Razak.

But since the tide has turned at the federal level, this may force Abang Johari to consolidate power by forming a state-based coalition, comprising PBB, PRS, PDP and SUPP, to push for the Sarawakian agenda and rights promised under Malaysia Agreement 1963.

The general sense of trepidation is likely to be exacerbated by BN component parties in neighbouring Sabah defecting from the coalition after the defeat.

To date, Liberal Democratic Party (LDP), Parti Bersatu Rakyat Sabah (PBRS) and United Pasokmomogun Kadazandusun Murut Organisation (Upko) have announced their departure from BN.

There is a possibility that the meeting between Mahathir and Taib was intended to bring about such a state coalition, which could be ‘friendly’ to Harapan in Parliament though not joining it outright.

With the additional 19 MPs from Sarawak to support Harapan, they will be able to push for the agenda to recognise and reinstate the status of East Malaysian territories with greater autonomy, as Harapan promised to do in its agenda.

Sarawak BN are expected to hold a meeting this Wednesday to discuss the next course of action, and it remains to be seen whether they will formally leave the coalition. -Mkini