Johor polls a preview of GE15?

 

The results of the upcoming Johor elections could tell what the future might hold for Putrajaya.

PETALING JAYA: Johor is set to go to the polls and the result could have huge ramifications on the outcome of the next general election, and when it is held.

On Jan 22, Johor’s Sultan Ibrahim Sultan Iskandar agreed to dissolve the state assembly, paving the way for state elections some time before March 23.

The majority held by the Barisan Nasional/Perikatan Nasional government had been reduced to just a single seat in December following the death of Kempas assemblyman Osman Sapian, which led to speculation that elections would soon follow.

The Election Commission will announce the dates for polling and nominations on Feb 9. But speculation has already begun not just on the dates but the possible candidates.

Already, key figures such as former prime minister Muhyiddin Yassin and former Johor menteri besar Khaled Nordin have ruled themselves out, while Muda is tipped to field party president Syed Saddiq Syed Abdul Rahman.

Whether SOPs differ much from those in Melaka and Sarawak will also be a talking point. The opposition has said that the rules disadvantaged them in the previous state elections, and has called for relaxations this time out.

What happens over the next two months will be telling.

Umno, fresh off its big win in Melaka, has all the momentum heading into the clash in Johor, and another victory could give the party leadership the confidence that it can ride the groundswell of support into a general election.

For Pakatan Harapan and Perikatan Nasional, this is an opportunity for redemption. Neither has given a strong account of itself of late, but inroads in Johor could instill in them the belief that they can compete successfully when Parliament is eventually dissolved.

The reins in Putrajaya may well be at stake, albeit indirectly. Another big Umno win would point to support moving back in the direction of a party embarrassed by its first ever general election defeat in 2018. A soft showing could indicate the severity of new wounds that have emerged, like the much-maligned handling of December’s floods by Prime Minister and Umno vice-president Ismail Sabri Yaakob.

While state elections typically involve less fanfare than a general election, many will keep a close eye on the campaign trail and the results, searching for hints of what the future might hold for Putrajaya.

All Malaysians can do now is wait. - FMT