The Muslims Are Going From Worst To Even More Worse. Do They Care?

 Lets look at modern day Muslims over three time periods - from the end of WW2 until 1979, then from 1980 till 2000. After that from 2001 until now 2023. 

And also perhaps some crystal balling - going into the future - the next 20 years, until about 2043. What is going to happen to them? 

It has all to do with incubation. 
Or gestation periods. 
Or how long will it take for the pot to boil over. 

Please recall I have mentioned this before. When you wear or try on the wrong pair of shoes you will know it immediately. It will start pinching your feet immediately. This means you can also fix the problem immediately.

Other mistakes may not be 'fixable' as quickly.

For example the Soviet Union chose the wrong ideology (for them) in 1917 and it took 72 years for them to realise that communism was the wrong solution for them. The Berlin Wall fell 72 years later in November 1989.

Tun Razak messed up the Malaysian education system. 53 years later the system has collapsed but they still dont know how to fix it.

The Iranian people made a terrible mistake in 1979 by putting the Ayatollahs in power.  Within 30 to 40 years later they realised they had made a terrible mistake. How long more will it take for them to rectify their mistake?  

Wouldnt it be the great salvation of the human race if we can find out immediately whenever we make a wrong choice? As quickly as feeling the pinch of a wrong shoe. Then you can fix the problem immediately and save your society generations of suffering.

Sadly it is not that easy. Everything takes time to collapse (or bloom). This is the gestation period, the incubation period. The length of time it takes for the pot to boil over.  You make civilisational mistakes and your civilisation will collapse over a whole civilisation amount of time.

After WW2 many Islamic countries achieved independence from their colonial masters especially from the French and the British - in Africa, the Middle East and Asia. Some countries like Jordan and Pakistan were simply created out of thin air (and may disappear into thin air as well).

In the immediate decades after WW2 these Islamic countries still functioned to an extent because they had inherited workable systems of administration from the colonials which did help otherwise rural and village folks to face the 20th century and also to aspire to catch up with their colonial masters. 

But soon, one by one,  they began failing. They all became dictatorships, insane monarchies, autocratic and all the horrors that came with being so. Then they went through revolutions and coup d'etats (into the 1950s and some until today). But they were still dictatorships, autocracies and tribal or racial outfits. Until today. 

At the ground level they did not develop modern methods of economy, business, finance and management. Land was usually in the hands of the few (like in Pakistan), some tribes established their tribal laws as the law of the land (just about everywhere) which were quite devoid of justice (and more importantly devoid of solving real problems).

At this time religion did not play a very big part yet. But after so much failure, soon the pan-religious groups began popping up. One in particular the Ikhwan Muslimin or Muslim Brotherhood began spreading its tentacles from Egypt. In Iran the Ayatollahs began revolting against the tyrannical regime of the Shah. They finally succeeded in 1979. 

In the 1980s (to counter the Shia Ayatollah revolution in Iran) the Wahabis in Saudi Arabia started exporting their Wahabi cult (including its terrorism) as their version of a great Islamic cure-all.

The 80s saw the great resurgence of pan-Islamic movements like the Wahabis, the Muslim Brotherhood, the Iranian Shias and other lesser but still influential outfits like the Tabligh folks and the Sufis from Turkey.

But nothing much was getting better for the Islamic countries. The lucky ones who had oil wealth were able to provide some development for their people but largely welfare help. Or straight handouts. They never became competitive or productive - not even one of them. Or creative. That was zilch or zero. 

The plight of the people was still weak, unproductive and non-competitive. To pull the wool over the eyes of the people the religious charlattans kept them fooled with useless slogans like 'neither east nor west, scrambled eggs are the best' and crap like that.

This kept going on from the 1980s until the 9-11 event in 2001. It also marked the beginning of the genocidal War on Terror by the British and their American stooges. 

For over 20 years, until the fall of Kabul back to the Taliban on August 15, 2022 the War on Terror kept the religious freaks in check. The American bombing of Iraq, the invasion of Afghanistan, the expanded war against Islamic countries in Africa and the Middle East, locking up the Al Qaeda fellows in Guantanamo until today effectively saw the end of the pan-Islamist movements and also dampened more theocracies from being created. Only Afghanistan and Iran remain as theocracies. 

Along the way the Arab Spring in 2011 also saw the crash and doom of the Arab countries. The effects of which are still being felt. The Arab Spring was not a spring by any measure of the word. It was simply a violent change in government by societies that did not understand five-yearly elections. After they threw away the old dictatorships the Arab Springers set up new dictatorships. El Sisi is now president of Egypt since 2014 - its been nine years already. The new Arab Spring dictator. 

Sudan broke into two with the new entity known as South Sudan.  Iran still has violent uprisings among the people which are brutally put down by the Ayatollahs. Pakistan has collapsed on itself with the people not even having clean water to drink. Bread has also become scarce.

Another by-product of the Arab Spring was the millions of Arabs, north African Muslims, Afghans, Iranians who left their countries and became asylum seekers in Europe. This is still an ongoing problem. They are simply giving up their ghosts and running away from their own mostly Islamic countries.

In another twist of confusion, Saudi Arabia has given up Wahabism, especially pan-Islamic Wahabism (meaning the export variety) and has turned to night clubs and bikini beaches instead. This is the land where the prophet was buried.

Saudi Arabia is becoming the land of night clubs and bikini beaches.

So what is going to happen in the Islamic countries and Islamic societies over the next 20 years?

In Turkey, Recip Erdogan faces run off presidential elections on May 28th 2023 because he failed to secure 50% of the vote for a third term. But in a twist of Turkey's fate the No. 3 candidate has suddenly endorsed Erdogan for the run offs, which Erdogan is now expected to win.

Erdogan has already caused Turkey much economic suffering. But perhaps not enough. More dangerously Erdogan has tried to revive some delusions of grandeur of the old Ottoman empire - perhaps as a vote getting gimmick as well. Turkey's hopes of being admitted to the European Union have been dashed. Erdogan's vision of a Turkish Caliphate stretching into Central Asia (up to the banks of the Yenisey River in northern Russia, according to the head-chopping Turkish language movie in Netflix) will also not materialise. 

I see Turkey (or Turkiye) entering a period of prolonged confusion over the coming years.

The Middle East has not reached its full boiling points yet. Egypt still has no system of changing its government peacefully. Sometime in the dont know when future, El Sisi will likely leave office feet first - either by natural or unnatural causes. 

Saudi Arabia exists at the mercy of a single bullet. Or a head chopping sword. One swing of the sword and the Saudis can be thrown into the Lawrence of Arabia movie set again - for a very long time. 

After breaking into two, Sudan may break into three.  The Arab speaking Sudan may separate from the non-Arab (but also Muslim) regions like Darfur.

Pakistan is going to break up into at least three entities - Balochistan, Pushtunistan or Pukhtunistan and the remaining rump Pakistan. Sindh may also want to leave. In the recent flood devastation international food aid to Pakistan did not reach some places in Sindh. Or all of Sindh - depending on who you listen to. They really hate each other.

But whether they are monarchies, autocracies, 'democracies', psycho-pathies etc the Islamic countries ALL suffer systemic failures.  

They have tried to implement various flavours of religious laws which just do not exist.

There is no standard system of religious laws common to any Islamic country.  There is no such thing.

So there is going to be plenty of bungling around. At the cost of their societies. At the cost of their progress, in the 21st century, which is very, very late in the day.

But doom and destruction are only the symptoms. The main causes of their doom is the incapacity to discuss intelligently. The criminalisation of thinking, the criminalisation of writing words on paper are the main reasons keeping them down. 

Criminalisation means the use of violence. If I dont like what you say I will kill you. Or throw you in jail. Or a whole spectrum of other types of chastisement and expulsions in between. They are just not learned. Despite their western inspired PhDs or their madrasa granted ijazahs they are just villagers. These are not a learned people. 

They have not even arrived in the 20th century. But this is the 21st century already.

How long will be the gestation period? How much longer for their pots to keep boiling over - again and again?

The views expressed are those of the writer and do not necessarily reflect those of MMKtT.