What can Johor by-elections tell us about Pelangai?

Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim’s coalition government was granted a slight reprieve when both his ally’s candidates won during the Sept 9 by-elections for Pulai and Simpang Jeram.

This was after his administration was dealt a serious blow during the Aug 12 state elections, in which rival Perikatan Nasional clinched landslide victories in three states while making in-roads in states held by Pakatan Harapan-BN.

On Oct 7, the Anwar government will face another test in the form of a by-election for Pelangai, where BN will be attempting to defend the Pahang legislative assembly seat against PN.

The stakes in Pelangai are very high because Pahang does not have laws to discourage the defection of lawmakers and there is speculation that a win by PN could cause dominoes to fall, leading to another abrupt change of government.

To understand possible voting trends ahead of the Pelangai polls, this article will examine shifts in voting sentiments during the Sept 9 by-elections for Pulai and Simpang Jeram in Johor.

PN urban expansion

Harapan won both Pulai and Simpang Jeram convincingly, more so in Pulai, an urban constituency that is part of the greater Johor Bahru area.

Although turnout was only 47.3 percent, Harapan, which draws its support from mostly city folks and non-Malays, won 61.6 percent of the vote, upgrading Pulai’s status to a “very safe” seat (over 60 percent vote-share) from a “safe” seat (55-60 percent vote-share) during the 2022 general election.

Upon closer inspection of granular voting data, it was revealed that it was in fact PN that gained the most ground.

Although PN lost during the Simpang Jeram and Pulai by-elections, they are closing the gap

The Pulai constituency is divided into 40 voting districts (voting centres).

During the 2022 parliamentary elections, PN did not have an outright majority or even a plurality vote (more votes than any opponent) in any voting district. During the Sept 9 by-elections, however, PN won 15.

In the Sri Jaya voting district - a 77 percent Malay area at the northwestern fringe of Johor Bahru - Harapan retained nearly the same number of votes it got in 2022.

However, the number of votes received by PN increased by an impressive 50 percent.

Therefore, there is evidence to suggest the vast majority of those who voted for BN in Sri Jaya last year transferred their vote to PN.

A similar situation played out in 15 out of 20 Malay-majority voting districts in Pulai.

Of the 15, the voting district with the lowest proportion of Malay voters was Tarom (58 percent Malay), which saw PN increasing their number of votes there by 55 percent.

Harapan was only able to win five Malay-majority voting districts. Of the five, the voting district with the highest percentage of Malay voters was Jalan Tampoi (60 percent Malay).

Despite BN’s heavy presence in Pulai during the campaign, it would seem that their efforts bore little fruit as Harapan’s vote share across the 40 voting districts increased by only 6 percent on average, while PN’s vote share increased by 22 percent.

Some polling districts won by BN in 2022 were taken over by PN

Surprisingly, PN’s gains in Simpang Jeram - a more rural constituency where PAS usually performs better - were less impressive. Of the 11 voting districts, PN only won four.

The voting district with the lowest number of Malay voters that PN won was Jalan Haji Abdullah, where 63 percent of the voters are Malay.

PN’s vote share gains were also more muted compared to Pulai, increasing by 16 percent on average, while Harapan’s vote share increased by 10 percent on average.

Unlike Pulai, PN started with a higher base in Simpang Jeram. During the 2022 parliamentary election, PN won 27 percent of the vote share, edging out BN.

In both Pulai and Simpang Jeram, there were ample clues to suggest the majority of those who voted for BN in 2022 transferred their vote to PN, more so in the case of Pulai.

There were also clues that the Harapan-BN pact was still struggling to win over the Malay vote, as most of the voting districts with more than 60 percent of Malay voters sided with PN.

Pakatan Harapan’s Suhaizan Kayat won the Pulai parliamentary by-election on Sept 9

PN eating into BN’s base

Although it has long been established that younger non-urban Malay voters played a key role in PN’s success during the Aug 12 state elections, there is evidence PN now attracted some of BN’s core constituents - older voters.

Most voting districts can be subdivided further into “saluran” or streams. These streams are numbered and arranged according to age.

An analysis of the generational gap in voting behaviour by Kini News Lab during the 2022 parliamentary elections revealed that BN tended to do better in “Stream 1” - older voters.

However, the Pulai and Simpang Jeram by-elections showed PN is gaining ground among this key demographic.

In 2022, BN won, by plurality or majority, 14 “Stream 1” in Pulai, and six in Simpang Jeram, while PN did not win any.

This time around, PN won seven “Stream 1” in Pulai and three in Simpang Jeram.

Although Harapan also made gains by winning more “Stream 1” in both constituencies, in terms of absolute votes, it was PN that achieved net gains while Harapan suffered a net loss in both constituencies.

Among younger voters, PN was on par with Harapan, winning an almost equal number of “last streams”. However, their vote share among the younger voters received a mild boost in both constituencies.

This has major implications for PN because granular data from the “streams” indicated the drop in turnout during the Sept 9 by-elections increases as the age cohorts get younger, suggesting that a higher turnout would likely translate to better PN performance.

Malays, older folks, more motivated to vote

Granular voting data also suggests that Malays and older voters were more motivated to vote during the Sept 9 by-elections.

In voting districts where Malays were the majority, the number of votes cast was reduced by 30 percent on average compared to during the 2022 elections.

In contrast, in voting districts where non-Malays were the majority, the reduction in the number of votes cast was higher at 40 percent on average.

More urban areas tend to experience a higher drop in turnout. The voting districts of Ayer Molek, Kampong Pahang, and Bandar - the three voting districts closest to the Causeway - saw an average 60 percent drop in the number of votes cast.

There were also indications that younger voters are less motivated to vote in by-elections, based on a sampling of large voting districts.

Typically, the first few streams in these voting districts would see a proportion of turnout roughly equal compared to 2022. However, the difference in proportion is more apparent in later streams (see chart below).

Conclusions

In summary, this article attempts to put into perspective Harapan’s two by-election victories on Sept 9. Although Harapan did better, so did PN.

Harapan went into both elections as the incumbent while PN came in third place in Pulai and second place in Simpang Jeram during the 2022 parliamentary elections.

Granular voting data suggested that BN vote-transferability to its allies in Harapan was low and Harapan generally performed better when the proportion of Malay votes was below 60 percent.

PN also made substantial gains among “Stream 1” voters, who are older and were generally more inclined to vote BN during the 2022 elections.

PN’s gains among the “youngest” voters were marginal, but the voting sentiment among this cohort suggests that had the turnout been better, the opposition coalition would have performed better.

Finally, the Simpang Jeram and Pulai polls suggest that Malays were slightly more motivated to vote compared to their non-Malay counterparts.

Going into the Pelangai polls, PN will be in a much stronger position than they were during the Sept 9 polls.

This is because PN is in a better starting position, as they won 40.39 percent of the vote in Pelangai during the 2022 Pahang state election.

Furthermore, Pelangai is a 72 percent Malay-majority constituency - the type of constituency that proved very challenging for Harapan and BN during the Aug 12 state elections.

Should the voting trends of Simpang Jeram and Pulai make their way to Pelangai, BN and Harapan will have a tough time maintaining enough of their base to pull them through. - Mkini

Note: The Simpang Jeram and Pulai by-election data cited in this article are from unofficial sources and not from the Election Commission, which only sells the data after it is gazetted - a process that takes several months.

Countries such as Indonesia, Taiwan, and Australia make such data available in a timely manner and for free.