Of 'hungry ghosts', 3R and the ballot box

CAMPAIGN ROUNDUP II | In the Simpang Jeram and Pulai constituencies, red and blue flags dot the landscape to remind voters of who they ought to vote in the by-elections tomorrow.

Coincidentally, most urban areas in the two constituencies are also sporting flags of another kind - the kind that served as a guide for the “wandering spirits” to entertainment events set up for them, and the living, during the “Hungry Ghost Festival”.

Apart from visitors from other realms, these events also attract “wandering politicians” eager to showcase their ties with the community and shake hands with potential voters.

At the Ang Tey Fui temple in Perling last night, one such politician was Pakatan Harapan’s Suhaizan Kaiat, who is vying for the Pulai seat.

Although many Muslims may find such an event to be in conflict with their faith because it featured “spirits”, deities, ge tai (singing performances) and copious amounts of beer, Amanah’s Suhaizan steadfastly trudges on with his campaign.

As Suhaizan hopped from one table to the next, elderly Chinese people greeted the candidate with warmth. Some put down their beer cans to take selfies with him. Many struggled to communicate with Suhaizan, but the red Harapan logo on his shirt transcends language barriers.

“I am candidate No 3,” he repeatedly told well-wishers.

“He goes wherever there’s a crowd,” one local DAP activist who accompanied Suhaizan told Malaysiakini, when asked why the Johor Amanah vice-chief had to push his boundaries beyond what he might be comfortable with.

For certain, the novelty of a Muslim candidate at a Hungry Ghost Festival will make news in Chinese newspapers and social media the next day.

PN chooses familiar route

Over the past two weeks, Suhaizan and Harapan candidate for Simpang Jeram, Nazri Abdul Rahman, have been dividing their campaign schedule between Malay and non-Malay areas.

Perikatan Nasional’s campaign, however, has taken a much simpler path.

Both Simpang Jeram and Pulai are constituencies with near equal proportions of Malay and non-Malay voters. In both cases, PN started on the back foot.

During the 2022 parliamentary election, PN won 17.6 percent and 27.1 percent of the vote share in Pulai and Simpang Jeram respectively.

(Editor’s note: Simpang Jeram vote share could be calculated based on Election Commission granular data which Malaysiakini acquired.)

Despite needing to win a portion of non-Malay votes for a chance at victory, both PN candidates - Zulkifli Jaafar for Pulai and Dr Mohd Mazri Yahya for Simpang Jeram - have been campaigning almost exclusively in Malay areas.

In Simpang Jeram, PN’s primary campaign mechanism was holding multiple “ceramah kelompok” every night to gather voters so that Mohd Mazri could meet them.

While PN’s slogan throughout the campaign has been “Biar doktor jaga SJ” (Let the doctor take care of Simpang Jeram), the narrative being played out at these gatherings is largely about race, religion and national issues.

PN’s Dr Mazri Yahya (in a plaid shirt) making his rounds.

Even though the Simpang Jeram polls was for a state legislative assembly constituency 150km from Pulai, voters were being warned that if the Anwar Ibrahim-led administration held a two-thirds majority in Parliament, then it would indulge in “gerrymandering” by creating more urban constituencies.

DAP and its new allies Umno, who were not participating in either by-election, are also main targets for the PN campaign.

PN chairperson Muhyiddin Yassin, fully aware of the potency of religious rhetoric, even “issued” a fatwa (religious edict) declaring during a rally that voting for Harapan was “haram”. Although it was clearly said in jest, Muhyiddin was forced to clarify the matter later after opponents pounced on him for “issuing an edict” without proper credentials.

What was glaringly obvious was that while every Harapan party has been bringing on the big guns, PN coalition partner Gerakan’s presence in both campaigns has been extremely low-key, despite non-Malays being their assigned demographic.

BN campaign overdrive

In contrast, Harapan’s new partner BN has been actively working with the Malay voters in Simpang Jeram and Kempas - one-half of the Pulai constituency and the half with a clear Malay majority.

BN vote canvassers told Malaysiakini that the main challenge was convincing traditional BN supporters of the need to vote for former arch-rival, Harapan.

In Simpang Jeram, BN typically campaigns through leafleting and house visits without Nazri, the Harapan candidate, and without media coverage, even when Johor BN chief and Menteri Besar Onn Hafiz hits the campaign trail.

“BN needs some ‘space’ in order to convince our supporters to vote for our allies,” a BN activist told Malaysiakini.

During the 2022 parliamentary elections, BN won around a quarter of the vote in both Pulai and Simpang Jeram. Should BN convince just half of its supporters to vote for Harapan, it would ensure Harapan’s convincing victory.

In Pulai, it was observed that most of Suhaizan’s engagement events with Malay voters would involve having Johor or national Umno leaders.

“Our focus is Kempas. We are targeting our 16,000 ‘white’ voters,” said an Umno activist campaigning in Pulai, referring to the colour code the party uses to identify supporters. “Black” was used to label voters they could not win over and “grey” was for fence-sitters.

During the 2022 election, BN’s Nur Jazlan Mohd obtained 31,098 votes, which meant that most of the remaining votes would come from MCA and MIC members or supporters.

What constitutes a win for PN?

Several analysts, contacted by Malaysiakini, believed that PN’s strategy and tactics over the past two weeks have made it abundantly clear that they do not have high expectations of winning either polls.

Analyst Asrul Hadi Abdullah Sani said PN’s core audience was Malays and understood the realities of their chances.

“Its primary strategy is to continue chipping away at the Malay support for Umno and Harapan, not necessarily winning Malay-minority seats,” said Asrul, who is the deputy managing director of risk intelligence firm Bower Group Asia.

Similarly, Nusantara Academy of Strategic Research (NASR) analyst Azmi Hassan said the reality was PN was “too reliant” on its Malay base.

“If they can reduce Harapan’s majority, they can later claim that PN is getting stronger,” he said.

Azmi opined that Gerakan was the chink in PN’s armour that has contributed little to the campaign, whereas Harapan component party DAP had been successfully connecting the Harapan candidates with the non-Malay voters.

Thus, the race for Simpang Jeram and Pulai appeared to be a contest of who is capable of mobilising their core supporters to turn up at the polls tomorrow.

Some party activists estimate that up to 20,000 voters combined are working in Singapore. To bolster their chances, PN will have to hope that they do not make their way back. - Mkini