BN-PN poised to take Negeri Sembilan, says Kian Ming

 The former Bangi MP projects the informal electoral pact could win 23 to 25 seats, leaving Pakatan Harapan with 11 to 13 seats.

DAP’s ex-Bangi MP Ong Kian Ming said he expects combined Malay support for BN and PN to exceed 70%, giving them an advantage in Malay-majority seats.

PETALING JAYA:

Barisan Nasional and Perikatan Nasional are on track to jointly take control of the Negeri Sembilan government, winning between 23 and 25 of the 36 state seats in the Aug 1 election, according to former Bangi MP Ong Kian Ming.

In his latest election projection, the DAP leader said Pakatan Harapan is expected to win between 11 and 13 seats, with PKR likely to secure one seat and the rest going to DAP.

Ong, now an adjunct professor at Taylor’s University, said the BN-PN electoral pact gives the two coalitions an advantage by preventing the split in Malay votes, which had benefitted PH in several seats in previous elections.

“With the electoral pact between PN and BN, it is very likely that Malay support for both coalitions will exceed 70% and allow candidates from both coalitions to avoid splitting the Malay vote,” he said in his analysis.

Ong’s projection draws on turnout assumptions of 80% among Malay voters, and 65%, 60% and 65% among Chinese, Indian and other voters respectively.

In this election, PH is contesting all 36 seats on its own.

BN is contesting 25 seats under an electoral pact with PAS-led PN, which is contesting the remaining 11 seats without overlapping contests. Bersatu, although still a PN component party, is separately fielding candidates in 24 seats under its own logo

Ong also identified 10 closely contested seats that could determine the final outcome, including Chennah, Klawang, Serting, Jeram Padang, Temiang, Sikamat, Ampangan, Linggi, Sri Tanjung and Repah.

Of these, he expects BN to win Jeram Padang and Linggi, while PN is expected to take Klawang, Serting, Sikamat and Ampangan.

However, Chennah, where DAP secretary-general Loke Siew Fook is defending against BN’s Siow Kong Choon, was flagged as “too close to call”.

He said anti-DAP and anti-PH sentiments among Malay voters could prove difficult for Loke to overcome, while a swing among the Orang Asli voters “may be sufficient to give BN a small margin of victory”.

As for Bersatu, Ong said the party could act as a “spoiler” in some seats by drawing votes away from BN or PH, but there were not many seats where its candidates could make a huge difference.

PH support has declined since 2018

Ong said PH’s support in the state had declined since 2018, when it won 53% of the popular vote and 20 seats, with Bersatu still part of the coalition.

He said PH’s vote share fell to 44.4% in the 2022 general election. Based on those results, PH would have won only 17 of the 36 state seats, compared with BN’s 18 and PN’s one.

“It was only via a seat-sharing agreement in the 2023 state election that PH maintained control of the state assembly with 17 seats and BN with 14 seats,” he said. - FMT