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Wednesday, December 29, 2010

The Big Riddle


The hot topic, rather the Big Riddle, now is when will be the next general election. Of course, the only person who will know is the prime minister, and even though there are rumours that GE is near, I suspect even the PM has not decided for sure when to call for the next one.

There are rumours that it will be in March next year. Of course, those who say so may be right. But I personally think it is unlikely.

To call for an election is like fighting a major war. To mount a major offensive, even American cannot do it in a stealthy manner. There will be signs , there will be logistic preparation, there will be wikileaks malaysia-leaks.

On top of that, many of the Duns and MPs are first timers in 308, and they need to be in office for 3 years ( till next march or April depending on when they were sworn in) in order to qualify for the minimum pension, and this group as grass root leaders and mobilisers do exert certain influence on the top leadership.

Although BN may feel that there are some signs of pendulum swinging back to them -mainly because of PR keep shooting their own feet), I suspect privately they are not so sure. How accurate are those commissioned private surveys? Let me tell u something. Before 308,the major party in Penang thought they would again win the right to govern, based on these so-called surveys, but in the end, they were routed and up-rooted . The main reason being that they were seen to be subservient to the Big Brother, and that their Four heavenly kings were fighting for the prized post of CM, even before the voters had cast their votes, That was a sign not only of arrogance but also of total disregard of camaraderie and brotherhood. That gave an impression that they only cared for positions. I had then written on this issue and I had even given my feedback on KL seats and told the top leadership that the seats in KL were ‘Black” but my views was totally ignored and the party went into the fight as if they have already won.. In the end, that was the worse ever defeat they suffered.

Back to signs of next GE. There were no logistic preparation from BN as yet, and I think this time, they wont be so arrogant as before. and probably will use the Terang by-election as well as the Sarawak State election as a litmus paper to test the voters’ sentiments.If they cannot win big in Terang, or even lose the seat, and if in Sarawak, they cannot even win two third of the state seats, then election will not be called next year. It would probably be in 2012.

Another reason was the postponement of the party elections of some of the component parties. Some of these parties have postponed their party election by 18 months, meaning that the party election will only be held in 2013. If election is to be in March or even May next year, there is just no reason to postpone these party elections since most of these elections are due only end of next year.

Of course, as heads of the component parties, many of these leaders would be happy to follow UMNO style of postponing the party elections. For those who went in through the senate, especially those who were appointed senatorship after present PM has assumed his premiership in April last year, it means that they will have another term of senatorship since their present term expires on 2012. For their own interest, why not follow UMNo style and call for party election postponement? Another term of senatorship, and probably another few years as ministers.

Of course, the official reason will be they have to concentrate on the preparation for the GE. But if party election is held in the true spirits of democracy, and even if there are contests, there is no reason why members cannot close ranks. The important thing is to close rank and not to witch-hunt after a contest .

Lincoln invited his political rivals into his cabinet to hold important posts after winning the presidency. Tang Tai Zong ( Lee Shi Min), after killing his brothers (his big brother Lee Jian Cheng was the anointed Crown Prince) in a coup in the Xuan Wu Men incident, he treated his brothers’ families well, and he appointed some of his brother’s capable advisers to important positions, based on merits and morality; Tang Taizong stressed a lot on merits and morality in his choice of ministers and advisers . That was the basis of unity he enjoyed and his period of reign , the “Reign of Zhenguan”, was the most prosperous, least corrupted, and most crime free period of China.. He was regarded as one of the best, if not the best ,emperors of China. ( I may write an article on how he ruled his country and how he managed his ministers).

Alas, here in our country, after a party election, the winner will practice ” Chop’ technique while palying tai chi at the same time. Chop chop chop, and all capable materials are chopped and thrown into the dustbins, and all these chopping done in the name of consolidation and in the name of unity. I just dont understand how to have unity when you chop chop chop those losing factions. The lucky opposing head may be appointed to a minor post, but be sure, none of his people would be appointed, so his wings are clipped and chopped.

So back to the main topic. I think the election will be in 2012, unless BN wins big in Sarawak, and the Terang election. Do you think this is possible? I dont want to comment and i will leave it to your judgment. As the saying goes, the ball is round!!

courtesy of Dr Hsu's forum

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