Will Anwar be more effective in or out of jail?

Both sides of the political divide have come with their versions on the possible aftermath of the High Court’s verdict on Anwar Ibrahim.

KUALA LUMPUR: In four days, Anwar Ibrahim will either be found guilty or acquitted of sodomy. And the question people with any political inkling are asking is will he be more effective inside or out of jail.

Anwar, 64, faces 20 years in prison if found guilty of sodomizing a 24-year-old former male aide in 2008, a charge he has vehemently denied and claimed was concocted by political foes.

Both sides of the political divide will off course have differing views. Some say that if Anwar is jailed there will be a wave of sympathy for Pakatan. If he is acquitted, he will remain the biggest and sharpest thorn in Barisan National’s side.

Take the view of MIC central working committee member S Vell Paari. He feels that whether Anwar is in or out of jail, he will still remain a powerful figure.

“You must understand Anwar. No matter if he is inside or outside, he is still a powerful person. I don’t think this will be major issue,” said the son of former MIC president S Samy Vellu.

Vell Paari said that in terms of voter sentiments, the battle lines have also been drawn much earlier and the verdict won’t make a big difference in voter swing.

“I think if you look at this particular case, you already have people who are his supporters and people who are not his supporters. Obviously his supporters will be upset if he is jailed. It’s like asking a Manchesty City fan in a Manchester United game if he is happy his team is losing,” said Vell Paari.

“In my honest opinion I feel that by jailing him, more people are going to go out and campaign . But Pakatan voters and BN voters are already settled on who they are. Their minds are set on who to vote for .”

Of Anwar being touted as the best option for Prime Minister, Vell Paari said that the true progress for the community, he believed, was through a Prime Minister such as Najib Tun Razak.

“I believe, we do have a Prime Minister who is very people oriented and genuine. Of course people jump at him from time to time, but we must remember Rome was not built in a day,” said Vell Paari, who cited the example of Najib being the first PM to admit to mistakes and pledging to amend them.

Effective outside

PKR strategic director Rafizi Ramli sums up the opposition’s most popular view. He says that Anwar would clearly be more effective outside of jail and would be crippled, as what BN intends, if put behind bars.

Rafizi argued that Anwar’s direct involvement in politics has contributed tremendously to the current political scenario

“One of his biggest contributions to Malaysian politics is bringing Pakatan Rakyat together. He is the most credible alternative candidate for Prime Minister,” said Rafizi.

An example of Anwar’s influence, said Rafizi, is how he effectively galvanised support and achieved the political tsunami of March 2008.

“That is, I suppose, the big motivation to try to limit his involvement in direct politics, by imprisoning him and taking out his eligibility in the next general election. With such a direct access, he is a big threat to Barisan Nasional,” he said.

Rafizi said that things were very different today compared to 1998 when Anwar was sacked and faced his first sodomy accusation.

“The situation today is different, the challenges are different, back then it was a shock to everyone that this could happen because everyone thought our country was rosy and nice,” said Rafizi, who was a student leader in university at the time.

A new awakening
Rafizi said in 1998 a large majority of Malaysians who were very pro-establishment came together and formed the “reformasi” groups as they were suddenly “aware and disillusioned”.

“There was a spike of anger, without too much light at the end of the tunnel. It was a question of how we could sustain that spike of anger, and it was hard for those reformists to capitalise on that anger as the non-existent PKR then had no organization, no system, and was not clear-cut in what we wanted to do,” he said.

“After 10 years, after 2008, there is now a clear segment of society that wants political reform and wants a two-party system. That is Anwar’s value to this segment of society which is no longer the same motivation as in 1998, which was simply anger over his victimisation,” he said.

Rafizi said comparatively, Anwar was now much more valuable to the rakyat. “He can still galvanise people on his latest tour, I would expect 15,000 -20,000 as his minimal crowd. But whether you would see an outpouring of 100,000 or 200,000 remains to be seen in a week’s time,” admitted Rafizi.

Rafizi said the younger generation, who do not actually remember what transpired in 1998, are also going through a similar “awakening” but through other issues including academic freedom, electoral reform and other scandals.

“But today, people who go (to support Anwar), go with a purpose, people know there is a finality to this—which is the opposition taking over Putrajaya.”