Intrigue in Umno: Najib plotting May 26 'surprise' to free himself from Dr M?

It looks like the election date guessing game is back in favor, with May 26 - a Saturday - being touted as a possible date. However, given Prime Minister Najib Razak's obvious reluctance to call for polls sooner than he must, despite his advisers trying to mask the fact with 'elections are near' stories to the press, this could turn out to be the next 'big miss'.

"Frankly speaking, I don't think Najib himself knows GE-13 will be. Until he can sort out the succession plan with Mahathir, he won't dare call for polls," an Umno watcher told Malaysia Chronicle.

Others that Malaysia Chronicle spoke to pointed to May 26 being the last Saturday of the month, which could be why speculators seized on the date.

Yet there are some who are convinced that this is Najib's latest game plan - to spring a surprise when virtually everyone had given up on him as being too cowardly to go to the ballot boxes until his mandate expires next year.

Meeting to counter Najib's 'surprise'

Pundits point to former prime minister Mahathir Mohamad's recent meeting with Perkasa and several Umno veterans, including Perak chief cleric Harussani Zakaria, to ostensibly talk about Malay rights as a sign that Mahathir too had caught a whiff of the winds of change blowing through the Najib camp and wanted to forestall his latest tactics.

It is believed that the Mahathir-Perkasa meeting focused on how to further split the Malays from the non-Malays and to continue demonizing the Christians, so as to galvanize Malay support for the Umno right-wing. A plot similar to the May 13, 1969 racial riots is believed to be their back-up plan.

"You must bear in mind that the GE-13 date is watched for very closely by Umno members as well as the opposition. To the Umno warlords, it signifies a lot of things. Once it is announced, that means all the top power brokers have come to an agreement on how to share the spoils. Of course, BN can lose GE-13 but this is what always happens in an election year. Negotiations for their own interests always comes first. The main dispute will be who and 'whose who' will get what," the Umno watcher said.

According to him, the 86-year-old Mahathir is worried that Najib will resist him as far as possible, and this means his son Mukhriz will have no chance to become the prime minister within his life time.

Banking on his own popularity and ditching Umno, MCA and Gerakan

While fearful of Mahathir's widespread influence, Najib is banking on his personal popularity to pull him through. From his actions especially in the RM250mil NFC debacle, he appears ready to smear and even break apart Umno to stay on as prime minister. Such a hope is not impossible given that Umno has become as bad a brand name as MCA, Gerakan and MIC. In fact 'Anything But Umno' has become a clarion cry for many Malaysians including a large section of Malays.

If Najib is able to win on his own steam, this will also mean he will not have to dump his cousin Hishammuddin Hussein, who as Home Minister is next in line to take over the deputy prime minister's post from Muhyiddin Yassin. There is pressure from the Mahathir camp for Najib to sacrifice Hisham so that Mukhriz can be rotated into the DPM's slot earlier.

The Umno grapevine is also abuzz with speculation as to why Najib has not announced when the Umno general assembly and party elections will be held later this year. Already, he has announced that the annual meeting for all Umno branches will be held between 1st April and 15th June, while the divisions will be held from 1st July to 15th September. The annual celebration for the formation of Umno will be held on 11th May 2012.

But two key dates Najib has not announced is when the party election will take place and when will the Umno general assembly will be held? This omission is quite telling and hints of a 'Works-In-Progress'.

'Winnable' candidates to control divisions and branches ahead of Umno polls

Nonetheless, going by the announced timeline, it would extremely tough for Najib to call for GE-13 in May or June as he is widely expected to. Even so, unless GE-13 is to be held in November or next year, Najib will have dissolve Parliament midway through the meetings. This means the various annual branches' and divisional meetings will begin as announced, but not all will get to meet.

Halfway through, Najib is expected to announce the BN's winnable candidates for GE-13, after which, there would be little time for the warlords to complain. Happy or not, they would have to grin and bear with it. Umno has to put on a show of unity if it is to beat Opposition Leader Anwar's Pakatan Rakyat coaltiion.

Then once GE-13 is over, Najib's chosen candidates who win their seats will take over the Umno division and branch meetings, replace office bearers with their own stalwarts and prepare for the party election, where they can be expected to vote in Najib with an overwhelming majority. This way, Najib reckons he can finally be a strong Umno president, without having to kow-tow to Mahathir. With his men in place, Najib would be able to fill the party's supreme council with those who support him.

Mahathir won't be sitting still

Of course, Umno-BN may not win GE-13, in which case he would be Umno president and Opposition Leader rather than Umno president and Prime Minister. Nonetheless, he seems confident he can beat off a challenge from arch rival Anwar ibrahim.

Additionally, whether or not Najib can push through his plan smoothly depends on what cards Mahathir will play to counter the possibility of a Najib 'coup'. At 86, Mahathir is still a wily politician and can always be counted on to spring a surprise.

Currently, Najib is going all out to appear to be 100% behind Mahathri. But both men know things are not always what they seem.

Pundits warn that Najib could at any time pull away his support and leave Mahathir to face prosecution over the mountain of allegations that the ex-PM had abused his power, and had corruptly helped his cronies and family to amass huge wealth.

Yet Mahathir too is rumored to have his own hold over other BN leaders, including the scandal-tainted Najib.

"Najib is trying to show he and Mahathir are close. He is trying to signal it is him who is shielding Mahathir from all past scandals like the MAS and the Tajudin Ramli debacle, Air Asia, Proton," said the Umno watcher.

"But that is what appears on the surface. In realty, we haven't see Najib showing he has enough of the courage required to stand up to Mahathir or to play him out. And Mahathir is not a bowling skittle, he is bound to react. Chances are Najib won't dare to make a break from Mahathir and his gang.""

Malaysia Chronicle