Covid-19 infectivity still high as MCO 2.0 gets extended

 

COVID-19 | Covid-19's infectivity in Malaysia has remained mostly unchanged over the pass fortnight, as the government reintroduces the movement control order in several states tomorrow and extends it for other states.

According to data from the Health Ministry's National Institute of Health (NIH), the diseases' infectivity (as measured by its effective reproduction number; R_t) has been hovering above 1.10.

The latest estimate showed that the figure is 1.14 as of yesterday, meaning that on average, every 100 Covid-19 patient was infecting 114 others in each cycle of disease transmission.

Any number higher than 1.00 indicates a growing outbreak.

Earlier this week, Health Ministry director-general Dr Noor Hisham Abdullah had predicted it would take a while before the MCO succeeds in bringing down the number of Covid-19 cases due to the disease's 14-day incubation period.

For comparison, previous studies have estimated Covid-19's Rt to be around 3.6 if no measures are taken to contain it.

The National Security Council (NSC) has expanded the MCO to all states except Sarawak, though some parts of Sarawak are also under MCO. The expanded scope of the MCO comes into effect tomorrow.

Earlier today, it also extended the MCO already in place in Selangor, Kuala Lumpur, Putrajaya, Penang, Malacca, Johor, Kelantan, Sabah and Labuan to Feb 4.

High infectivity in Sarawak raises concern

Meanwhile, Noor Hisham who presented the Rt estimates at his press conference in Putrajaya today expressed concern over the Rt for Sarawak.

"What we are worried about is Sarawak, where the infection has already begun and we see a high infectivity of 1.50," he said.

Also showing a high infectivity is Perlis, with an Rt of 1.43.

However, it should be noted that Perlis has a relatively small outbreak of only 55 in the past 14 days, compared to 1,231 in Sarawak.

All other states and territories also showed an Rt above 1.00, except for Labuan.

According to the NIH data presented, the Rt in Labuan is 0.88. This indicates a shrinking outbreak where every 100 Covid-19 patients are infecting only 88 others.

The island has recorded 140 cases in the past 14 days. - Mkini