Stricter lockdown may be disastrous, warn experts

 

Stricter lockdown measures are likely to have an immeasurable impact on the economy and livelihoods, say experts.

PETALING JAYA: A think tank, an economist and an entrepreneur have warned against stricter lockdown measures, saying it will have an immeasurable impact on the economy and livelihoods.

The Galen Centre for Health and Social Policy; Geoffrey Williams, an economist at Malaysia University of Science and Technology; and Koay Chiew Guan, the immediate past president of the Small and Medium Enterprises Association of Malaysia (Sementa), said a full lockdown could be disastrous.

Azrul Mohd Khalib, chief executive of the Galen Centre for Health and Social Policy, said the sustained economic fallout from the Covid-19 pandemic meant that households, families and businesses were “a lot more fragile” than they were when the MCO was first implemented in March.

Speaking to FMT, Azrul stressed that the country’s current economic climate was not the same as it was during the first MCO last March.

Azrul Mohd Khalib.

“The problem right now is that a lot of people are looking at lockdowns as the solution,” he said.

In a recent Facebook post, former prime minister Najib Razak called for stricter restrictions on sectors such as manufacturing and construction – suggesting that “short term pain, long-term gain” would be better than repeatedly putting the country under a lockdown.

Azrul said: “Today, a lot of households, families and businesses don’t have enough resources to draw on – and many are on their last legs.

“Economies need to run and families need to have food on the table. A harsher lockdown would see a lot of mental health issues and, I’m sorry to say, suicide.”

In contrast to the first MCO last March, five essential economic sectors have been allowed to operate this time around – manufacturing, construction, services, trading and distribution, as well as plantations and commodities.

A spike in Covid-19 cases has seen the whole country, except for Sarawak, placed under a MCO which will end on Feb 4.

Azrul’s view was echoed by Williams. Calling lockdowns “a failed strategy” in Malaysia and the rest of the world, he said the evidence “is in front of us on a daily basis”.

Geoffrey Williams.

Malaysia recorded 2,226 new cases when Prime Minister Muhyiddin Yassin announced an MCO in five states and the federal territories of Kuala Lumpur, Labuan, and Putrajaya on Jan 11, but daily cases have been consistently above 3,000 since then, exceeding the 4,000 mark three times.

While Williams said a stricter but shorter lockdown would have been better at the start of the current MCO, he felt it would have minimal effect if enforced now.

“The first two-week period (of the MCO) is already over, and it has been extended to Feb 4,” he said.

“The impact (of a stricter lockdown) will be similar to last time, albeit from a much weaker base. The daily losses will be lower only because the economy is much weaker, and unemployment and damage to livelihoods will get worse.”

Warning that the country was now in a “survival trap”, Williams predicted that the tipping point would come in around six months, or near the end of the nationwide emergency, when all sectors ran out of reserves.

Warning that firms would be empty of stock and capital, consumers would face unemployment and would have depleted their savings, and the government would be short of revenue and borrowing options, Williams said the economy faced the risk of tipping into deeper recession or even a depression.

“So we need a new strategy now to avoid that foreseeable prospect,” he said.

Koay Chiew Guan.

Koay was just as pessimistic about the impact of stricter lockdown measures, stating that complacency with current SOPs might mean harsher restrictions will not have the desired effect on the population.

Instead, he called on the government to focus on preventing the spread of Covid-19 in certain hotspots.

“They should know where the bottleneck is … where the problem is from … and work on improving that – such as workers quarters,” he said.

“Everybody will suffer if there is another total lockdown. That is the problem. People will be in a dilemma and the whole economy will collapse.” - FMT