MALACCA POLLS | Curtains on the 12-day campaign for the Malacca polls are set to come down at midnight and Malaccans will elect their new government tomorrow.
As the clock ticks, the three major coalitions contesting for seats in the state legislative assembly - BN, PN and Pakatan Harapan - are making a final push.
Perikatan Nasional, for example, took a page out of the opposition's playbook of making symbolic moves aimed at building hype in the face of a formidable BN machinery, announcing its Tanjung Bidara candidate Mas Ermieyati Samsudin as its chief ministerial candidate just two days before polling day.
If PN wins, that would make her the first female head of government in a state.
Meanwhile, Harapan, which started off on a shaky foot trying to placate grassroots unhappiness over the fielding of Umno defectors in the polls, appears to have gained some confidence as the coalition set sights beyond their core voter base.
Harapan has leveraged the popularity of its chief ministerial candidate Adly Zahari and on Wednesday, organised an online dialogue between Adly and DAP secretary-general Lim Guan Eng, in which the two addressed the racial attacks against the coalition.
"We must give confidence to the people that change must be based on issues affecting their livelihoods," Adly said, adding that people sometimes even forget about their empty stomach when sentiments are played up.
Despite Adly's popularity, racial politics remains a potent force, even within his own constituency of Bukit Katil, where he is seeking a second term.
"Adly is good," said 35-year-old apam balik seller Mohd Afifi, who is a BN supporter. "But the people under him... you know their attitude," he added in reference to DAP.
On the flip side, there were also many voters who said they will continue to back Adly. He won the seat with a 3,159 vote-majority in the 14th general election.
Racial voting
However, racial voting could play a more significant role in some battleground constituencies.
PN has used such sentiments to their advantage by fielding a Malay candidate in Malay-majority seats where a non-Malay is representing both Harapan and MCA.
This is seen in Gadek, Kelebang and Bemban, all of which are Harapan-held seats.
PN chairperson Muhyiddin Yassin acknowledged that this was part of the coalition's strategy when asked about PN putting Dr Yadzil Yaakub, a Malay candidate, in Bemban.
Yadzil is facing Harapan's Tey Kok Kiew who is the state DAP chairperson, BN's Koh Chin Han who is from MCA and independent candidates Azmi Kamis and Ng Choon Koon.
Another seat seeing such tactic is Gadek, where PN fielded Bersatu's Mohd Amir Fitri Muharam against BN's VP Shanmugam, who is from MIC, and Harapan incumbent G Saminathan, who is from DAP.
"Of course, I will vote for a Malay candidate. Because the country's administration was in good hands when Abah (Muhyiddin Yassin) was in charge," said a 25-year-old shop assistant in Gadek who gave her name as Raihan.
"I used to support BN, but then there was no other choice. Now we have another Malay-based party to choose," Raihan added.
Apart from Gadek, Kelebang and Bemban, MCA has surrendered Duyong to Umno, which has fielded Mohd Noor Helmy against Harapan incumbent Damien Yeo. The PN candidate is the state PAS chief, Kamarudin Sidek.
These seats are Malay-majority zones but also have substantial non-Malay voters.
Sentiment-based voting is also seen in the Chinese community, particularly Machap Jaya, where some voters who spoke to Malaysiakini said they won't back PN's Tai Siong Jiul, who last month joined Bersatu.
They cited his cosiness with the Malay-based party and also the bid by PAS to ban lottery shops and liquor. PAS is a coalition partner with Bersatu in PN.
Turnout is key
This is despite many voters expressing disappointment that PKR had dropped its Harapan incumbent Ginie Lim. Those who are still upset said they would consider BN over PN.
"Ginie did a lot of work here... She participated in local events and even lives here. During the vaccination programme, she booked a bus every day to ferry us to get vaccinated.
"But now I think maybe BN is more suitable. Their team is more experienced and efficient in providing local services," said a 60-year-old local voter who did not want to be named.
Harapan is fielding Law Bing Haw while BN has put up MCA's Ngwe Hee Sem.
But many Harapan voters still see "the bigger picture" and despite their disappointment over the dropping of Lim or the collapse of the Harapan-led federal government in 2020, they remain supportive of the coalition.
The issue, however, is whether they are willing to overcome their disillusionment and head to the polls amid the Covid-19 pandemic.
A 38-year-old local voter in a Machap Jaya Chinese village said it was a small village. There were only about 80 students from two classes at the local SJK(C) school in his graduation year and they have kept in touch.
"There are only around 10 left in the village, all others are based in Singapore, Kuala Lumpur and Johor, doing business. Most of them have said they're not coming back to vote," said the shopkeeper who gave his name as Ah Boon.
Ah Boon also expressed disappointment at Harapan but said he'll stick with the coalition, praising its chief ministerial candidate Adly.
Think tank Merdeka Center programmes director Ibrahim Suffian said of the 28 seats in the Malacca state election, eight are too difficult to call while 10 seats are leaning towards BN and Harapan.
"There are eight seats that are too close and none appears to have a major advantage," he said. Turnout for either coalition, he said, is key.
Harapan has, towards the end of the campaign, pushed hard to convince state voters to return home to vote. The coalition tends to rely on younger voters, many of whom reside outstation.
While Harapan tries to hold on to its battleground seats, BN is also facing challenges in some of its traditional constituencies.
PN, for example, has fielded Bersatu heavyweight Mas Ermieyati in Tanjung Bidara against BN's Ab Rauf Yusoh, who is the state Umno chief. Harapan's Zainal Hassan is also contesting.
BN's incumbent chief minister Sulaiman Md Ali has also seen the majority in his state seat in Lendu dwindling from 2,503 in 2013 to 627 in 2018.
Meanwhile, Harapan is banking on former Umno leaders Idris Haron and Nor Azman Hassan to deliver Asahan and Pantai Kundor respectively.
Risky gambits
The attempts to open new fronts against BN come at significant risks for both the Harapan and PN leadership.
Harapan chairperson Anwar Ibrahim, for example, has taken much political risk to defend the unpopular decision of fielding former Umno leaders in the Malacca polls.
Harapan's support base may overlook the controversial decision if it pays off but failure could further erode Anwar's credibility, which has already been dented from his repeated claims of commanding a majority at the federal level but not delivering.
Meanwhile, PAS president Abdul Hadi Awang, who is also PN's deputy chairperson, has gone against popular sentiment within the party to cooperate with BN's Umno and has instead sided with Bersatu.
Those who had criticised Hadi's decision were also purged in the PAS leadership election early this month.
If PN fails to make substantial headway against BN, it could further fuel internal discontent against Hadi.
PN does not need to win a majority but at the very least, it will need to win enough seats and deny BN a majority and force Umno back to the negotiation table with Bersatu.
Umno president Ahmad Zahid Hamidi has refused to work with PN as he seeks to put an end to its splinter party Bersatu.
Zahid is also seeking a big win in order to silence internal rivals who have been lobbying for a grand coalition with PN, thereby giving Bersatu a lifeline.
A hung state assembly would mean...
Merdeka Center's Ibrahim said it is possible that the outcome of the polls could be similar to that of GE14 in 2018, where even if a coalition wins a majority, it would be very slim.
Should there be a hung state assembly, he said, it was likely that BN would be forced to cooperate with PN again, considering that they are already in an alliance with the federal government, despite the tensions between them.
This would mean Harapan could be at a disadvantage in the event of a hung state assembly and must therefore secure a majority on its own if it hopes to return to power.
An exception is if Harapan and BN win an equal amount of seats while PN comes up with nothing.
Moving forward, Ibrahim said the Malacca polls is a litmus test for the PN's viability, a gauge if BN has regained its support and how it will define the future relationships of the major coalitions.
Malaccans will elect 28 representatives to the state assembly tomorrow. The winning of a minimum number of 15 seats is required to achieve a simple majority by any one coalition. - Mkini
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