MALACCA POLLS | Think tank Ilham Centre said BN appears to be ahead in the Malacca polls but there is potential for some surprises.
Based on a survey of 1,051 respondents from Oct 23 to Nov 15, it found BN to have the upper hand in 11 seats, namely Ayer Limau, Serkam, Taboh Naning, Ayer Molek, Sungai Rambai, Sungai Udang, Lendu, Kuala Linggi, Telok Mas, Merlimau and Rim.
Meanwhile, it said Harapan was ahead in seven constituencies - Bukit Katil, Paya Rumput, Duyong, Ayer Keroh, Kesidang, Kota Laksamana and Bandar Hilir.
The remaining 10 are toss ups: Asahan, Kelebang, Tanjung Bidara, Pantai Kundor, Durian Tunggal, Machap Jaya, Rembia, Pengkalan Batu, Bemban and Gadek.
"BN needs to win at least four of the 10 hot seats to secure a simple majority to lead in Malacca... Perikatan Nasional (PN), however, has a chance to pull off surprises in Tanjong Bidara, Rembia and Bemban," it said.
Ilham Centre said Harapan was facing a challenging situation.
It pointed out that despite several factors working in its favour in the last general election, it only managed to scrape through a simple majority, winning 15 out of 28 seats.
Election Commission targeting 70 percent turnout of voters
It noted some of those favourable factors at the time - a record high turnout of 84.7 percent in Malacca, a historic level of Chinese support of 89 percent and a Malay swing due to BN's kleptocratic scandals are not present in this election.
The Election Commission is targeting a turnout of 70 percent of the voters, but Ilham Centre said this could be lower due to a lack of interest as a result of overly-strict campaigning restrictions, concerns about the Covid-19 pandemic and disillusionment.
"If the turnout on Nov 20 is under 80 percent, it will be difficult for Harapan to maintain its stellar performance achieved in the 14th general election," it said.
Working to Harapan's advantage, Ilham Centre said, is its chief ministerial candidate's popularity.
Based on the survey, it said 57 percent of respondents preferred Adly Zahari's policies when he was the chief minister from 2018 to 2020, compared to his successor Sulaiman Md Ali (2020-incumbent), or predecessor Idris Haron (2013-2018).
However, it said a self-inflicted wound is Harapan's decision to field Umno defectors in the Malacca polls.
"Harapan had hoped that their influence, particularly Idris' who was the former chief minister and held various political and NGO positions, can boost Harapan's support in other areas (beyond its core support base).
"However, based on the field survey, it appears to have had the opposite effect... A total of 63 percent of respondents rejected Idris as Harapan's candidate," it said.
Under these circumstances, it said BN appears to have the advantage but PN, despite being the underdog, has put together a strong campaign and also made some symbolic moves, including nominating Mas Ermieyati Samsudin and the woman chief ministerial candidate for Malacca.
It said PN's battle against BN is mostly focused in areas with significant Malay majorities.
"But we see that the more PN wrests Malay support in these areas, the better chance Harapan stands of winning due to the three-cornered contests," it said, zooming in on Tanjong Bidara, Rembia and Bemban.
Ilham centre added that PN must secure at least 50 percent of Malay support to win, which is a tall order to break BN's dominance. - Mkini
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