The 75 Year Cripple's 25 Year Feud Which Will Finally Burn The House Down

 https://permadumalaysia.blogspot.com/2023/05/wasting-public-money-and-risky-move-to.html?m=1

Here is my view. This lets quit and stand again will not work when the party they are quitting from is strong. In Malaysia the party identity has always been the main factor that determines the outcome. A party that is strong will have a far higher chance of winning elections and a party that is seen as weak will not perform as well, no matter who is the candidate.

When the very popular Johorean Dato Onn bin Jaafar quit UMNO and set up multi-racial Parti Negara his party lost badly in 1959 (although Dato Onn did win (in Kuala Terengganu??) 

UMNO which was super strong at that time thrashed him soundly. Since then both his son (Hussein Onn) and grandson (H2O) joined and remained in UMNO.

In 2022 Tun Dr Mahathir broke off from Bersatu and stood under (which party ah - Petai or Getah?) He lost his deposit in Langkawi. In 1969 Dr M did not lose his deposit in Alor Setar possibly because enough Chinese voted for him. But in 2022 the two time former prime minister lost his deposit in Langkawi. 

As an example if any MP were to quit from the GPS (Sarawak) which is now super duper strong under Abang Johari and stand against GPS under another party, you can be sure the candidate will lose. The GPS is super strong in Sarawak.

Not the case when the party is weak.  In 1959 Parti Negara was weak. In 2022 Petai was weak. 

Beginning 1995 UMNO has been weakening. 

In 2008 Umno lost the 2/3 majority for the first time.

In 2013 Umno lost more of the 2/3 majority in Parliament.

In 2018 Umno lost the elections and was kicked out.

In 2022 Umno was almost completely wiped out, winning narrowly in only 26 seats.

Umno is a super weak party. If an MP leaves UMNO and stands in another party that is stronger than UMNO, the candidate will have a much better chance of winning. Staying with Umno is suicidal.

A good example of this are the winning candidates in Bersatu in 2018 and 2022. Brand new Bersatu's candidates were almost entirely graduates of UMNO. If they had remained in UMNO they too would have lost. But even a brand new party like Bersatu was seen by the voters as much better than Umno. Hence well regarded and strong candidates (ex Umno) won enough seats under Bersatu. 

In such a short existence Bersatu has contributed TWO prime ministers and has now become a permanent feature of the country's politics. In just seven years.

And any MP who leaves Bersatu now will be committing suicide, for example Dr Mahathir joining Petai.

So if (according to the video above) the 15 UMNO/BN MPs quit and stand for re-elections (by elections) under Bersatu (which is also supposedly multi racial)  they will have a higher chance of winning. Remaining inside UMNO/BN is suicidal.

If the elections in those SIX states come first we will see UMNO/BN being massacred in all SIX States. 

My reading is when (not if) the PH and UMNO/BN get mauled in the upcoming SIX State elections, there may not even be a need for the 15 UMNO/BN MPs to quit. The PH will break up. I believe the GPS will walk out first. The PH gomen will fall.

If the PH gomen falls either there will be a new round of minum teh at the Istana to pick a new prime minister (which could be Hamzah Zainuddin) or we will have early general elections again.

Of a certainty UMNO/BN is dead. They are only waiting to be cremated.

PH is approaching the edge of a cliff.

I thought the DAP would have more sense.

The views expressed are those of the writer and do not necessarily reflect those of MMKtT.