Sympathy votes for PH-BN seen keeping green wave at bay

 

Barisan Nasional voters will swing to Perikatan Nasional, say analysts, but sympathy votes and the voter breakdown may stem the decline.

PETALING JAYA: Sympathy votes and the voter breakdown in two by-elections in Johor may favour the Pakatan Harapan-Barisan Nasional alliance against the “green wave” of support for Perikatan Nasional, says an analyst.

Azmil Tayeb of Universiti Sains Malaysia said the PH-BN alliance will gain sympathy votes as Salahuddin Ayub was popular and well liked in Pulai and Simpang Jeram, which he represented in Parliament and the state assembly before he died last month.

“It is similar to the 2016 by-election in Kuala Kangsar, Perak, when the wife of the MP was elected after he died,” he told FMT.

Ads by Kiosked

By-elections for the Pulai parliamentary seat and Simpang Jeram state seat in Johor will be held on Sept 9, following Salahuddin’s death.

Azmil said “the hot streak” of support for PN would continue as in recent elections. However, the swing of Malay votes from BN supporters switching votes to PN “won’t have much impact since non-Malays constitute about half of the voters, provided that they come out to vote”.

However, he expected the alliance to suffer an erosion of their winning majorities.

Another analyst, Zaini Othman of Universiti Kebangsaan Malaysia, said PN would do better or “at least put up a strong fight” in the by-elections. He said the PAS rhetoric of “save Islam” does have “buyers”.

However, he expected the by-elections to be a test of PAS’s political maturity. The party must focus on what it can offer voters rather than engage in personal attacks.

He said the two by-elections would be a good testing ground to see how much ground the “green wave” had gained in Johor. - FMT