Balancing foreign defence purchases amid geopolitical shifts

 Experts say the South China Sea dispute has deterred Malaysia from procuring arms from China, while the Iran war may also impact purchases.

Malaysia is likely to incorporate more drone and anti-drone systems into the armed forces, given their widespread use in modern warfare. (Wikipedia pic)

PETALING JAYA:

 For smaller nations like Malaysia, where the domestic arms industry remains in its infancy, foreign defence procurements are vital to strengthening military preparedness.

But Putrajaya faces a delicate balancing act.

Procurement decisions are shaped not only by defence needs, but also by diplomatic ties, geopolitical realities, affordability, and technical requirements — factors that have grown more complex in today’s unstable global climate.

To understand Malaysia’s approach, FMT spoke with Universiti Malaya’s Lam Choong Wah and Thomas Daniel of the Institute of Strategic and International Studies.

Four main factors

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Lam said there were four main considerations at play in foreign arms procurement—diplomatic ties, geopolitical concerns, prices, and technicalities.

Most importantly, Lam said, countries typically do not cut arms deals with firms based in nations they have no diplomatic ties with. In Malaysia’s case, that rules out deals with Israel and North Korea.

He said the second factor — geopolitical concerns — is another major consideration, as assets could become compromised if tensions escalate into conflict.

Price, he said, relates to affordability and takes into account Malaysia’s small defence budget allocation, while technical considerations are crucial to ensure procurements meet the armed forces’ operational needs.

Daniel pointed out that neither the armed forces nor the defence ministry makes the final call on military procurements. Ultimately, purchases must be approved by the Treasury and Cabinet, he said, premised on political considerations and budgetary constraints.

Who Malaysia tends to deal with

Daniel said Malaysia typically purchases assets from the US and several European nations, including Belgium, France, Germany, Italy, Russia and the UK.

Lam said this was not only on account of shared military doctrines, but due also to the advanced capabilities offered by firms from these countries.

He said Turkey and South Korea have recently emerged as alternative suppliers to Malaysia, offering competitive prices and capabilities suited to the country’s defence needs.

“There’s a buffet line of countries. Sometimes it’s defence decisions, sometimes it’s political and economic. This is a snapshot of Malaysia’s defence procurements,” said Daniel.

“Our supply chain is extremely varied and diversified, which in itself brings about certain challenges,” he said, citing maintenance issues and the need for personnel to operate various different systems.

Influence of geopolitics

Daniel said geopolitics has long influenced Malaysia’s military procurement. Although Western firms once dominated as the country’s defence suppliers, Malaysia began to move away in the 1990s under Dr Mahathir Mohamad’s administration.

This was partly due to Mahathir’s long-held disdain for the West, scepticism about their military’s industrial complexes, and a desire to deepen relations with non-Western powers.

“One of the key things he did was to procure MiG-29 jets from Russia for the air force. That was a significantly dramatic shift,” he said, adding that the subsequent administrations of Abdullah Ahmad Badawi and Najib Razak also cut arms deals with Moscow.

The geopolitical considerations now

Daniel said any new arms deal with Russian firms would run the risk of US sanctions under Washington’s Countering America’s Adversaries Through Sanctions Act.

Closer to home, he said there was a lot of hesitation within the armed forces and government towards purchasing big ticket items from China, partly due to the South China Sea dispute.

Lam said although China has emerged as a major arms player with state-of-the-art weaponry, major deals with Beijing were not an option.

“It is impossible for us to buy sophisticated weapons from Beijing under this circumstance. This is to avoid our weapons being compromised in the event of both countries getting embroiled in a conflict,” he said.

The dispute over maritime areas in the South China Sea stems from China’s assertion of its controversial nine-dash line map and repeated encroachments into parts of Malaysia’s exclusive economic zones.

Does the Iran war change anything?

While Malaysia has criticised the US over the Iran war, and its support for Israeli aggression in Gaza, Daniel said it would it not be easy, although not entirely impossible, to move away from the US as a whole.

“If engaging with the US in a diplomatic, defence and political level seems untenable to the Malaysian officials and decisionmakers, then there would be a lot of hesitation (in procuring assets from US firms).

“But it is difficult because some of the assets we have that work are actually American. Our biggest foreign partner when it comes to military exercises are the Americans, for various reasons.

“So it’s balancing that domestic political imperative, foreign policy decisions, and pragmatism that our defence sector needs. It’s a difficult calculation for any government,” he said.

Lam also expects Malaysia to incorporate more drones as well as anti-drone assets and systems into the armed forces, given their widespread use in modern warfare. - FMT