PAS' decision to abandon its six-year political cooperation with Bersatu is expected to hit the latter hard, especially in facing the upcoming Johor and Negeri Sembilan state elections, according to political observers.
Pointing to Bersatu's weakened state caused by a recent power tussle between its president Muhyiddin Yassin and his former deputy, Hamzah Zainudin, several analysts believe it is vital for Bersatu to explore a new political pact with another strong ally for its political survival.
"This decision (by PAS) would have a big impact on Bersatu as it had been dependent on PAS’ machinery for its activities and campaign works.
"Bersatu does not have a strong capability to carry out election campaigns by itself, especially after the recent internal split.
"Without joining forces with other major political parties, I think it would be very difficult for Bersatu to maintain its electoral performance as it did in the 15th general election," said Azmil Tayeb from Universiti Sains Malaysia.
Recently, PAS president Abdul Hadi Awang announced the party's central leadership had decided to terminate its political ties with Bersatu, a decision supposedly taken for the interest of ummah unity.
The decision came at the peak of a simmering tension between both parties following a political manoeuvre in Perlis last year, which resulted in the Islamist party losing the menteri besar post to Bersatu.
PAS, however, was silent on whether it would withdraw from the Perikatan Nasional coalition or seek Bersatu's ejection.
"I think this is a blow for Bersatu, although Bersatu should have seen this coming a long time ago.
“PAS has vastly more seats than Bersatu, and the latter is plagued with an internal power struggle that progressively decimates the party," said Pacific Research Center Malaysia principal adviser Oh Ei Sun.
New political alignments
Analysts who spoke to Malaysiakini believe PAS’ decision could also reshape political alignments ahead of the upcoming elections, although they differ on what the new landscape might look like.
Azmi Hassan of the Nusantara Strategic Research Academy opined that Bersatu might regroup with Pakatan Harapan, which could use the former's influence to recoup the support of Malay voters against Umno and PAS' clout within the community.
It also opens the opportunity for PAS to revive its relationship with Umno, he said, pointing to the parties' Muafakat Nasional pact that crumbled in 2022 due to PAS' insistence on bringing Bersatu on board.
However, Azmi said this would depend on Umno's readiness to amend the ties, as the party is already in a comfortable zone.
"But the fact remains that this (decision) opens an opportunity (for PAS) to cooperate with Umno.
"In Bersatu's case, they also cannot stand alone. Even if PAS exits PN and leaves its helm to Bersatu, this would not help Bersatu.
"(The decision) basically opens the same opportunity for Bersatu, where it is now free to explore cooperation with Harapan because the latter needs Malay support, which Bersatu can help deliver," Azmi added.
Azmil, however, does not foresee PAS and Umno reconciling due to their troubled past.
Besides the parties' history of clashes, the academic believed seat negotiation would be another sore point for both parties.
Azmil predicted that PAS might instead choose to lead a new coalition with Hamzah's Reset team, where "PAS can be the big brother".
Bersatu’s lack of appeal
On the other hand, Oh is sceptical about Bersatu's marketability and appeal to other well-established parties.
He said PN, which also consists of Gerakan and MIPP, might have a better chance in the polls if it continues to be led by PAS.
"PN could still survive if, henceforth, it is unequivocally PAS-led. Otherwise, it will also fade away.
"It would appear that nowadays very few political entities would like to work with what is left of an almost empty political shell that is Bersatu," Oh added.
Boon to Harapan, Umno
Universiti Teknologi Malaysia Kuala Lumpur Faculty of Social Sciences and Humanities director Mazlan Ali expects PN’s split to benefit Harapan and Umno.
He said the coalition had strong support from voters in previous elections due to the mixture of PAS' machinery strength and Bersatu's image as a nationalist party.
“Their united front presented a formula that was good enough to challenge the coalition government.
"However, after this split, PAS and Bersatu will go their own ways," Mazlan said.
Asked to comment on PN's situation, Mazlan said PAS may leave the coalition instead of Bersatu, adding the latter holds significant influence with Gerakan and MIPP.
Instead, Mazlan believed that PAS would create a new political alignment with Hamzah's team and, at the same time, try to rope in Umno and the Rafizi Ramli-led Parti Bersama Malaysia.
"So, there will be two political alignments. One is from PAS, and the other is a realigned PN led by Muhyiddin," he said. - Mkini
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