Prepare for crash landing, BN warned

Salleh Keruak says an economic crisis may be coming and it could threaten BN's hold on power.

KUALA LUMPUR: Malaysia has to brace itself against a repeat of the 1997 financial crisis due to the falling prices of gold and oil and the decline of the ringgit, Sabah State Assembly Speaker Salleh Keruak Said has warned.

Such a crisis could threaten Barisan Nasional’s continued hold on power, he said in his latest blog entry.

“There is talk that the oil prices may fall even lower, possibly even below US$60 a barrel,” he said. “If this happens, many countries are going to get hit, Malaysia included.”

He said Malaysia was especially vulnerable because the recently approved national budget was pegged to a higher contribution from Petronas.

Quoting political analysts, he said Barisan Nasional would need at least 40% of the popular votes to stay in power while the opposition needed 55% to take over. He attributed this to gerrymandering, which he said was not illegal.

“Hence there is only a 2% or so gap to see a change in federal government, not a very large gap indeed,” he said.

“Barisan Nasional has to take cognisance of this fact. Changes in government happen when the rakyat are facing an economic crisis.

“In the 1988 and 1997 crises it was not so crucial. The opposition made some gains in the 1990 and 1999 general elections that followed but not enough for a change of federal government, mainly because the gap was quite wide.

“This time, however, the gap is very narrow.”

The former Sabah Chief Minister urged Barisan National to prepare for a “crash landing” and ensure that it survives it.

“This should be Barisan Nasional’s focus in the 12 months to come, unless by the grace of Allah the price of oil goes back up to US$80 a barrel or higher.”