NO WONDER RINGGIT IS PLUNGING: Ageing Pas ulama likely to strike deal with Umno - report

MALAYSIA’S opposition coalition, Pakatan Rakyat, came close to snatching power at the general election in 2013. But instead of regrouping for a fresh assault on the United Malays National Organisation (UMNO)—which has ruled the country, in a coalition it dominates, since independence in 1957—the three-party Pakatan partnership seems to have torn itself apart. On June 16th the Democratic Action Party (DAP), one of its components, declared that the coalition “effectively ceases to exist”. The following day leaders of the People’s Justice Party (PKR) agreed that Pakatan “no longer functions formally”.

Pakatan was founded by Anwar Ibrahim, a charismatic reformer and a turncoat from UMNO. It is anchored by PKR, his centre-left and multi-ethnic party. Yet the coalition’s survival has always depended on a truce between the DAP, a secular ethnic-Chinese outfit, and the Pan-Malaysian Islamic Party (PAS), a devout ethnic-Malay one. Their relationship has been battered by PAS’s determination to introduce hudud (harsh sharia punishments, such as stoning and amputations) in the northern state of Kelantan, its stronghold.

In March the DAP said that it was no longer willing to co-operate with Hadi Awang, the president of PAS and architect of its campaign to strengthen sharia. But at PAS’s conference this month the party faithful re-elected him in a landslide—and then passed a motion of their own cutting ties with the DAP.

The bust-up might have been better handled had Mr Anwar been around to manage things. But he was imprisoned in February on a sodomy charge—trumped up, it seems, to keep him from power. UMNO has been playing mischief too behind the scenes, quietly backing PAS’s sharia campaign.

Mischievous Mahathir

Dr M and Najib

Pakatan’s implosion could not come at a better time for Najib Razak, the prime minister. His government has lurched from crisis to crisis. He is currently fighting allegations of mismanagement at 1MDB, a state investment firm he helped create (it is struggling to service debts of more than $11 billion). Some of the fiercest criticism of Mr Najib has come from within his own party, in particular from Mahathir Mohamad, a mischievous former prime minister, and his allies. Dr Mahathir says that Mr Najib’s unpopularity could spell disaster for UMNO at the next general election in 2018. Last month Mr Najib pulled out of a forum which might have seen him forced to debate with the elder statesman, citing fears that crowds were planning to get rowdy.

Pasma

The coalition’s collapse could lead to complicated negotiations in Selangor, a rich state near Kuala Lumpur, the capital; it is currently governed with the support of all three Pakatan parties. In the longer term Malaysia’s opposition leaders must decide how (or whether) to regroup. The DAP and PKR will probably muddle along together. But without an Islamist partner they may struggle to gather support from across the electorate, which consists of a Malay Muslim majority with Chinese, Indian and Christian minorities. Some moderate members of PAS who have been isolated by the success of a conservative faction at last month’s party elections say they will break away to set up a less toxic Muslim party which could join DAP and PKR in a new coalition. If that plan comes off it may reinvigorate Pakatan’s appeal; many Malaysians have been put off by the strict Islamists lurking on its fringes.

Ulama may opt for Pas-Umno merger

Much hinges on how PAS’s dominant conservative wing chooses to proceed. The party’s ageing leaders seem to think that time is running out to introduce hudud in Kelantan and look willing to reach some form of accommodation with UMNO, despite a history of antagonism, in order to achieve it. Support from PAS, however tacit, would boost UMNO’s chances of stringing out its long reign. But it would also see Malaysia’s poisonous politics split more cleanly along ethnic lines—hardly a heartening thought. - http://www.economist.com/news/asia/21654621-malaysias-opposition-comes-unstuck-trouble-trebles