Anwar's second crack at a majority could make or break his political career

 

When PKR president Anwar Ibrahim announced on Sept 23, exactly a week after Malaysia Day, that he had secured the backing of enough MPs to form the new government, it rekindled memories of a similar attempt by him 12 years ago.

On the eve of Malaysia Day in 2008, Anwar declared to tens of thousands of supporters at the Kelana Jaya Stadium in Petaling Jaya that Pakatan Rakyat, the predecessor of Pakatan Harapan, had secured enough numbers to form the new government.

"Tomorrow is D-Day. We are ready to form the government. We have the numbers and we are ready to announce tomorrow.

"Tomorrow, we are ready. But the best time (for the takeover), I tell you, is when we meet the prime minister (Abdullah Ahmad Badawi)," he had said.

Anwar had been alluding to the takeover since a month before and it rattled Abdullah, who on Sept 8 shipped 49 BN MPs to Taiwan on a purported "study tour".

The fact that Abdullah was rattled suggested there was indeed discontent among at least some BN MPs who were considering to defect, but Anwar's very public gambit also meant the then prime minister took active efforts to block him.

Anwar had, at the time, claimed he had the support of at least 31 BN MPs in addition to the 81 Pakatan Rakyat MPs, giving him just enough to scrape through a majority in the 222-member House.

However, Sept 16, 2008, came and all there was, was a statement by Anwar seeking to meet Abdullah on the transition of power. Many more months followed but nothing materialised.

Anwar may have been on to something but his failure to deliver demoralised his supporters and the shadow of his Sept 16 gambit has followed him ever since.

So, it was no surprise that the 2008 incident was raised again when Anwar made his latest announcement at Le Meridien Hotel in Kuala Lumpur on Wednesday.

Former prime minister Dr Mahathir Mohamad, who himself has been trying to regain a majority after losing power in the Sheraton Move but with limited success, was among those who raised the incident that occurred 12 years ago when expressing his scepticism.

Better chances, higher stakes

Compared to 2008, Anwar is on a stronger footing to secure enough defectors for a takeover.

In 2008, Abdullah had a 29-seat majority. Muhyiddin has three in the current Dewan Rakyat. In 2008, Pakatan Rakyat had 81 MPs. Today Harapan has 91 in the Dewan Rakyat with another 12 from Warisan, Upko and PSB who may need some convincing.

But Anwar's Sept 23 announcement has sparked a witch-hunt for the possible would-be defectors, with several Umno MPs being forced to deny that they are part of the scheme.

While the current circumstances mean it is less challenging for Anwar to pull off a takeover, the stakes are also higher.

Anwar's failure or success could make or break his political career.

For decades, Anwar has played a significant role in Malaysian politics.

From his days as a student activist to his incarceration under the Internal Security Act, from his rise to deputy prime minister to his fall from grace and rise again as the opposition leader, Anwar has proven himself to be a resilient politician.

Success would finally see Anwar, 73, achieve his goal of becoming prime minister, a dream which has eluded him several times for decades.

In late February, shortly after the collapse of the Harapan government, Anwar had also convinced his allies to back him as the prime ministerial candidate over Mahathir.

This was after Mahathir wanted a government that did not follow party lines and not bound by the 14th general election manifesto if he returned to power.

Failure not an option

Believing that Anwar could make up for the shortfall of MPs, Harapan backed him over Mahathir. 

Ultimately, Bersatu president Muhyiddin Yassin was sworn in as the new Perikatan Nasional government's prime minister after outdoing Anwar and Mahathir.

That was a period of political vacuum and jostling.

However, Anwar's Sept 23 announcement will be his second attempt at bringing down a sitting government through defections since 2008.

Anwar argued that, this time, it is to restore the people's mandate as it was Harapan that won the 14th general election but was toppled by Muhyiddin and his allies.

But another failure could be fatal as Anwar may not come back from it this time.

Like the boy who cried wolf would testify, no one would believe him after crying wolf twice when there wasn't one.

Anwar's move in the next days and weeks will be closely watched. - Mkini