Until the Madani government collapses or ends its term, you will continuously hear new plots of Sheraton Move 2.0.
This is not just a prophecy for the opposition to preach. Such plots can also be the tool of some government MPs to extract resources. They can even be a useful tool to cause a stock market panic or crash.
The question is when not to believe it. This article will show why two conspiracy theories are not grounded and also suggest how Sheraton Move 2.0 may take shape months after the state elections.
No by-elections before state elections
The latest rumour is that Perikatan Nasional (PN) chairperson Muhyiddin Yassin is trying to persuade 15 parliamentarians to resign and re-contest. Who are these 15 parliamentarians?
The storyline is built on the five-month-old incident when 10 BN parliamentarians signed statutory declarations in support of Muhyiddin’s PM bid.
This was used to justify Umno president Ahmad Zahid Hamidi’s purging of dissidents before the party election, and is repeated now to underline how Anwar’s political survival depends on Zahid’s faction, and perhaps why Zahid and former prime minister Najib Abdul Razak walking free is politically a necessary evil.
The new additions to the old treachery claim are first - money from former prime minister Dr Mahathir Mohamad and Daim Zainuddin; second, two PKR parliamentarians also joining the game; and third, this is a loophole in the Anti-Hopping Law because the undemocratic “Shahrir Samad Clause” – Article 48(6) which prohibited resigned MPs from recontesting in five years has been repealed.
This psywar campaign would benefit at least two sides: first, certain allies of Anwar who try to extract more concessions or prevent certain reforms if the PM believes he is weak; second, PN and all of Anwar’s other political enemies who stand to gain if the instability anxiety persists.
Ultimately, it is just another attempt to keep Malaysia deeply divided on partisan lines and prevent a true multiparty democracy from emerging.
Why? Many Malaysian politicians thrive better in a dog-eat-dog world than in fair play. So, beware of their partisan mouthpieces.
Here’s why you should not take this story seriously.
First, even some of the 10 BN parliamentarians won’t sign up for a new PN government now. PBRS’ Arthur Joseph Kurup is now a deputy minister.
As much as the hardcore supporters of Pakatan Harapan hate MCA president Wee Ka Siong’s constant criticism of his successor, Transport Minister Anthony Loke, it would be suicidal for him as well as his MCA colleague Wee Jeck Seng and MIC’s M Saravanan to resign and contest under PN’s banner.
Even Umno parliamentarians like ex-menteri besar Hasni Mohammad may have had a brighter future in Anwar’s camp than in Muhyiddin’s camp if Zahid would not go all out to terminate his political career.
Second and most importantly, Muhyiddin and PN will not use this by-election card now. To have mass resignations now, by-elections would be held within 60 days, most likely in early June or late May.
As there is no major political issue for PN to attack the government, these by-elections would be easily framed as sabotaging economic stability. It is impossible for PN to win back 15 seats, certainly not those currently with MCA, MIC, and PKR.
Losing a few seats can’t bring down the Madani government, which has 36 seats in excess of a simple majority. Instead, it can be turned into a cause for government parties to close ranks and fight the state elections with extra vigour, and most of all, with public sympathy.
With a high turnout and public anger against political chaos, Harapan and BN will surely keep most of their seats in Selangor, Penang, and Negeri Sembilan. They may even recover some marginal seats in Kedah.
Do you think Muhyiddin is so stupid to not see what I see here? Why must he be so desperate now? If Bersatu and PN are running short of money even for the state elections, why waste the bullets?
The authors of these conspiracy theories either think that Muhyiddin or you are politically naïve, or they themselves are.
No GPS prime minister either
A few months back, there was another conspiracy theory that PN is trying to get Sarawak coalition GPS to ditch Anwar for a new coalition government. The prize for GPS’ switching side? GPS will have the first Sarawak PM.
Why would PAS with 43 seats and Bersatu with 31 seats accept the leadership of 23-seat GPS? As GPS is quite secular and would stand in the way of PAS’ hardline Islamisation, why would PAS supporters swallow this arrangement? Why would PAS risk an internal split over this?
This is the explanation offered by the conspiracy theory’s authors: PN is so desperate to be in power again, probably to stop the prosecution of Muhyiddin and other Bersatu leaders for corruption.
It has an ever bigger loophole. Unlike Sabah’s Shafie Apdal who dreams to be PM, Sarawak Premier Abang Johari Openg is more interested in building up Sarawak as an autonomous region. So much so that he did not contest the parliamentary election when he could keep his options open as an MP.
If GPS takes up the PM offer, one of the current deputy prime ministers Fadillah Yusof would be the man. Fadillah is only the senior vice president or No 4 in Abang Johari’s PBB. Now, tell me why would Abang Jo appoint his No 4 to be his federal boss?
So, this is clearly a Made-in-Malaya political fiction by creative writers who did not do their homework. Don’t fall for every conspiracy theory in town.
How Sheraton Move 2.0 may happen
I am not a Madani government or Harapan propagandist to tell you that Sheraton Move 2.0 would never happen.
Sheraton Move 2.0 may indeed happen but if unfortunately so, it would take months to unfold after the state elections. It would require a BN-Umno pull-out or an exodus of many Umno parliamentarians, which would result in by-elections.
Technically, even if the Madani government loses all BN’s 30 seats, it still has 118 seats, six seats more than a simple majority.
Such government however will not be viable because it would face further exodus or blackmail by the 36 MPs from non-Harapan Borneo parties – 23 from GPS, six from GRS, three from Warisan, one each from PBM and KDM, and two independents. It would be in paralysis that by the time GE16 is called, Harapan and its allies would lose flatly.
So, how can PN trigger an Umno walkout of the Madani government? No, it is not by sending Zahid to jail as some propagandists want you to believe.
Whoever the Umno president, whether it is Mohamad Hasan, Khaled Nordin, Johari Abdul Ghani, or even for argument’s sake, in an impossible scenario, Hasni Mohammad or Hishamuddin Hussein, they would keep Umno in the Madani government as they would then be a deputy prime minister.
If they want to be PM again, being DPM is the best position, instead of taking Umno to join PN to become the little brother of PAS and Bersatu.
What will get Umno out of the Madani government is a panic that Umno would be wiped out in GE16 due to its association with Harapan. So, if Umno gets wiped out in Penang and Selangor and badly damaged in Negeri Sembilan in the upcoming state election, the panic would kick in.
They won’t call for Zahid’s resignation as the party is controlled by him. Rather, Zahid’s boys would demand the government to outdo PN by manifesting Malay and Islam dominance.
When PN attacked DAP MP Hannah Yeoh for the church visit in the Jom Ziarah programme in March, newly elected Umno Youth chief Muhammad Akmal Saleh warned that he “would not hesitate” to stop the event if it was not cancelled.
If Umno does badly in the state elections, PN would harp on whatever issues to show that Malays and Islam are under threat, and the likes of Akmal would try outdoing PN as the Malay and Islam champion.
Soon, the Madani government would be torn into two, between those who want to make it more Muslim nationalist than PN and those who want to keep it Madani. Many Malaysians would simply be fed up with politics and vow not to vote again. That would be the best time for PN to orchestrate by-elections.
Bersatu sunk into that panic mood after losing the Tanjung Piai by-election. Three months later, the Sheraton Move took place. So, if Umno suffers a shocking defeat in the state elections, the fallout would roll out in months into 2024.
Is the Madani government then doomed? No, Anwar can do three things to prevent Sheraton Move 2.0. Stay tuned for my next column. - Mkini
WONG CHIN HUAT is an Essex-trained political scientist at Sunway University. He is a professor at the university’s Sustainable Development Solutions Network (SDSN) Asia. Mindful of humans’ self-interest motivation while pursuing a better world, he is a principled opportunist.
The views expressed here are those of the author/contributor and do not necessarily represent the views of MMKtT.
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