BN-PN pact could shake PH’s grip on Selangor, say analysts

 Lau Zhe Wei and Azmi Hassan say the BN-PN alliance would have a shot in marginal or mixed seats won by PH in the 2023 state polls.

Ex-Umno Youth chief Khairy Jamaluddin suggested that Selangor could be retaken if Malay votes were no longer split, hinting at another possible tie-up between BN and PN.

PETALING JAYA:

Analysts do not discount the possibility that a Barisan Nasional-Perikatan Nasional alliance could help the two coalitions make inroads into Selangor on the back of a united Malay vote.

Lau Zhe Wei of the International Islamic University Malaysia told FMT that despite Pakatan Harapan winning 32 of the 56 seats in the 2023 state election, a BN-PN alliance could still realistically chip away at the coalition’s modest majority.

“If we look at what happened in Johor, a high percentage of PN, especially PAS, supporters are willing to transfer their vote to BN,” he said, adding that such an outcome could be replicated in Selangor.

Backed by PAS, BN stormed to victory in Johor, winning 48 of the state’s 56 seats in the July 11 election, up from 40 in 2022.

PH is backed by two BN assemblymen and an independent in forming the Selangor government. PN forms the opposition with its 21 seats.

Lau also said BN-PN would have a shot at marginal or mixed seats won by PH in the last state polls, adding that “whenever there are factors that affect vote shifts, it can happen”.

He was commenting on ex-Umno Youth chief Khairy Jamaluddin’s claim on July 20 that Selangor could be recaptured if Malay votes were no longer split, hinting at another possible tie-up between BN and PN.

Khairy said Selangor’s voter profile and demographics closely mirrored those of Negeri Sembilan, making the outcome of the upcoming state election there a useful gauge for future political strategies.

The non-Malay factor

Lau also said that issues such as the ban on pig farming in Selangor and the state’s new guidelines on houses of worship might cause non-Muslims to think twice about voting for PH, but whether that would translate into votes for PN remains difficult to say.

But BN might be a suitable alternative for such voters, Lau said, adding that the coalition, when it was in power at the federal level, appeared to be more “accommodating” in such situations.

“So as long as BN can gain, not a lot, but just a portion of the non-Malay and non-Muslim vote, it stands a high chance of winning seats, especially those in mixed areas,” he said.

Lau said one of the key reasons PH was able to win federal power in 2018 was the first-past-the-post electoral system. It only took a small swing in the Malay vote, combined with overwhelming support from non-Malay voters, for PH to secure victory.

“In Selangor, if PH loses even a small fraction of its non-Malay support, many of those mixed seats could fall, and it risks losing power,” he said.

Look at the popular vote

Azmi Hassan of Akademi Nusantara recalled that in the 2023 state election, the Malay votes were split among BN, PN and PH.

He also said that based on the 2023 results, PN and BN would need a combined swing of about 7,000 votes to wrest Selangor from PH.

“I don’t think we should focus solely on the number of seats. We should also look at the popular vote. There are indications that a BN-PN alliance could pose a serious challenge to PH in Selangor,” he said.

Azmi said a BN-PN alliance could wrest some mixed seats in northern Selangor, including Sekinchan and Kuala Kubu Baharu, from PH.

PH’s Ng Suee Lim won Sekinchan in 2023 with a 4,018-vote majority in a straight fight against PN’s Goh Gaik Meng. Kuala Kubu Baharu, on the other hand, was won by PH’s Pang Sock Tao in a four-cornered fight in the 2024 by-election, with a 3,869-vote majority.

Selangor’s next state election is due by Nov 18, 2028, unless the state assembly is dissolved earlier. - FMT