Seat talks: Little room for Bersatu as Umno lays ground rules

As Perikatan Nasional (PN) ties become increasingly complicated, a new dimension in Umno and Bersatu's relationship has emerged which might muddy the ties further.

The Umno supreme council recently decided on the ground rules for seat negotiations with Muafakat Nasional allies PAS and Bersatu.

Councilmember Zahidi Zainul Abidin told reporters last Wednesday that BN, a coalition which Umno leads, will field candidates for every seat it won in 2018, including the seats currently held by some Bersatu MPs.

When contacted for clarification, Zahidi explained that the ground rules set by Umno's supreme council for seat negotiations - only in Peninsular Malaysia - are as follows:

- BN must field candidates for all 51 seats which it won in 2018;

- BN will not field candidates for 13 seats which Bersatu won in 2018; and

- BN will field candidates for any seats which PKR, DAP and Amanah won in 2018 where BN came in second.

This starting position by Umno for seat negotiations poses two major problems for its ally Bersatu.

Firstly, of Bersatu's 31 current MPs, 15 won their seats on a BN ticket before defecting between 2018 and 2019.

Secondly, of Bersatu's 31 MPs, 10 won their seats on a PKR ticket where the BN candidate placed second.

In other words, Umno wants BN to field candidates for 25 seats currently held by Bersatu.

However, Umno's position that BN will not contest seats where it did not place first or second in 2018 does offer some opportunities for Bersatu.

In the 2018 general election, BN did not place first or second for only 12 seats. However, PAS won one of those 12 seats and was the runner-up for the other 10.

The only other remaining seat is Keningau in Sabah, which Bersatu is unlikely to claim where its PN allies PBS have a much more prominent history.

Should Umno and BN be unwilling to budge from its present position, it would mean that there will be very little room left for Bersatu in Peninsular Malaysia.

According to sources close to Bersatu who are familiar with its seat negotiation strategy, the party will attempt to eke out enough opportunities to win in order not to be subservient to Umno in the event of a PN victory.

Apart from getting Umno to concede, one option is for Bersatu to negotiate with PAS for a slice of the 12 seats where BN came in second.

Another option is for Bersatu to venture into more mixed-ethnicity constituencies which Umno and PAS are traditionally weaker in.

An obvious target for Bersatu would thus be PKR, which currently has 34 MPs in Peninsular Malaysia who mostly represent well-mixed constituencies with significant Malay presence.

If this strategy were to be taken up, then Bersatu would be conducting a major shift from 2018, which saw them fielding 54 candidates, exclusively in Peninsular Malaysia, for seats that had a Malay-majority electorate.

But as Umno and PAS leaders continue to sound the war drums for snap elections, the time is running out for Bersatu to stake its claim beyond the 13 seats it won in 2018. - Mkini