For Perikatan To Survive, Umno Has To Get What It Wants: Analysts

Any hope of keeping the Umno, Bersatu and PAS alliance alive, which will be key to Perikatan Nasional (PN) retaining federal power, will hinge on whether the former’s demands on seat allocation are met, said political observers. 

(MalaysiaNow) –  They said Umno is unlikely to buckle unless it gets what it wants, with the party seemingly on the cusp of resorting to pulling out support from the coalition, having previously said it will contest no less than 96 seats, including the 54 it won in 2018. 

 
But whether Bersatu and PAS will allow the largest Malay-based party in the country to have everything its way is yet to be seen.
 
As it stands, Bersatu and PAS are stuck in a conundrum – whether to give in to Umno’s demands and have a higher chance of remaining in Putrajaya, or to stake their claim on seats they believe are theirs, in defiance of Umno.  
 
Universiti Malaya academician Prof Awang Azman Awang Pawi said this will be the pact’s biggest sore point and challenge heading into the 15th general election (GE15). 
 
“Bersatu and PAS must give in to Umno to stay in power. Umno has said it wants to contest 90-plus seats, including seats it won in the last election and whose MPs later defected. If it is given only 60 or 70, certainly, it will not agree.

Universiti Malaya academician Prof Awang Azman Awang Pawi says Umno, Bersatu and PAS’ similar support base – rural and suburban Malays – will only compound matters in the run-up to GE15. – File pic, February 8, 2021

“But if this is the case, the other two parties will not have many seats left, especially Bersatu. The prime minister, being from Bersatu, surely won’t allow this to happen,” he told The Vibes today.
 
Awang Azman was commenting on Tun Dr Mahathir Mohamad’s recent claim that a formalised coalition comprising Bersatu, Umno and PAS is a recipe for disaster as their agendas diverge too drastically.

Similar support base
 
Speaking to FMT, Mahathir had said the current ties between the three are merely for “political expediency”. 
 
Awang Azman said the support base all three parties bank on – rural and suburban Malays – will only compound matters, as the parties lack any sort of magnetism that could allow them to contest elsewhere. 
 
He said this similarity, and not their differing agendas, as suggested by Mahathir, is what will determine whether they can succeed in the next general election. 

Tan Sri Muhyiddin Yassin will likely retain Pagoh in GE15, but it is doubtful Bersatu will win many other seats, says one analyst. – File pic, February 8, 2021

“The cooperation between Umno, Bersatu and PAS was ideal at first, as they are Malay-Muslim-centric. But what brought them together before is now breaking them apart. 
 
“All three parties want to hold on to power through the same Malay market. And, Umno will feel most hard done by if its seats are taken away, knowing it won the most number of constituencies the last time out.” 
 
Yesterday, at a press conference in Kota Baru, Kelantan, Ketereh MP Tan Sri Annuar Musa had brushed off Mahathir’s claim, saying Umno and PAS share a stable understanding, although there are some complications with Bersatu.
 
However, the Umno man said he is confident his party will be able to manage any differences of opinion and find a formula and strategy to win the next nationwide election together. 

Sacrificing seats
 
Like Awang Azman, independent political analyst Khoo Kay Peng said that rather than the issue of contradicting agendas, seat allocation will be the main point of contention for the three parties, which were fierce competitors in the last general election. 

Independent political analyst Khoo Kay Peng says if Bersatu sacrifices seats it wants to contest in GE15, it will be left with nothing. – Khoo Kay Peng Facebook pic, February 8, 2021

Khoo said Umno is unlikely to give up any of its traditional seats, especially to Bersatu, which it sees as its fiercest rival, and it is also doubtful the latter will compromise on seat distribution either. 
 
“Umno wants to be the dominant party once more. But if Bersatu sacrifices seats it wants to contest, it will be left with nothing. Maybe Tan Sri Muhyiddin Yassin will retain Pagoh, but I don’t see it winning many other seats,” he said.
 
Khoo said that should Umno pull out of PN, it could spell the end for Bersatu, as any multi-cornered fight in GE15 will most certainly not swing in Bersatu’s favour. 
 
“Muhyiddin knows his days are numbered. After being prime minister, he can’t rejoin Umno and accept a ministerial position; it would be a downgrade. He will probably be looking at retirement after the next general election. 
 
“The only way for Bersatu to maintain its position in the government is for Umno and PAS to agree to allocate winnable seats and to support (Bersatu) candidates, which is very unlikely on Umno’s part.” – The Vibes