COVID-19 | Covid-19 infectivity remained high as the second movement control order (MCO 2.0) was extended for the second time.
According to the Health Ministry’s National Institute of Health (NIH), the estimated national infectivity rate was 1.15 as of yesterday.
The infectivity rate is measured by its effective reproduction number or Rt. Any number higher than 1.00 indicates a growing outbreak. An Rt of 1.15 means that on average, every 100 Covid-19 patients are infecting 115 others in each cycle of disease transmission.
NIH data showed that Covid-19 infectivity on Feb 1 was higher than on Jan 13 - the date MCO began in several states and territories. The estimated Rt then was 1.13.
MCO 2.0 was first imposed in five states (Johor, Sabah, Selangor, Penang, Malacca) and three territories (Kuala Lumpur, Putrajaya, Labuan).
It was later expanded to include six other states (Pahang, Perlis, Perak, Negeri Sembilan, Kedah, Terengganu, Kelantan).
It was extended for the first time on Jan 21, while the second extension came today.
MCO 2.0 will now be in effect until Feb 18 in all parts of the country except Sarawak.
Moving forward, Defence Minister Ismail Sabri Yaakob said stricter standard operating procedures (SOPs) will be imposed but did not provide any details during his announcement this afternoon.
Johor has highest infectivity
Despite being under MCO since Jan 13, Johor recorded an Rt of 1.2 yesterday marking the highest infectivity rate among all states and territories.
Twenty days of MCO has also failed to bring Rt below 1.00 in Kuala Lumpur (1.19) and Selangor (1.16), Malacca (1.05) and Labuan (1.03).
High infectivity rates were further seen in Terengganu (1.18), Sarawak (1.11) and Perak (1.08).
Health Ministry director-general Dr Noor Hisham Abdullah shared these figures on his Facebook page today.
Pandemic forecast to worsen
The NIH also revised its pandemic projections and predicted daily new cases will spike in the next month.
In its Feb 1 projection, it forecasted Malaysia will record 8,000 daily new cases by the first week of March with an estimated Rt of 1.2.
The country is forecasted to record 10,000 daily new cases by the second week of March.
This is higher than NIH’s previous projection where it forecasted 5,000 daily new cases by the third week of February and 8,000 new cases by the third week of March. - Mkini
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