Negeri Sembilan may be a bridge too far for PN

 

Negeri Sembilan is a very diverse state. It has industrial and oil palm estates, cement quarries, tourist precincts and a wide spread of villages in rural areas.

It has a population of 1.1 million, of whom about 720,000 are eligible to vote in the coming state assembly elections. It is ethnically diverse with 56.6% of the population Malay, 23.1% Chinese and 14% Indian.

These groups are not uniformly dispersed throughout the state, however, thus influencing election outcomes.

Pakatan Harapan has held power in the state since 2008 but for the forthcoming elections, it will run alongside Barisan Nasional, its ally in the federal government, although some media reports claim that each will run their respective candidates according to the seats they won in the 2018 state assembly elections.

The now resurgent Perikatan Nasional (PN), on the other hand, didn’t win any federal seats in Negeri Sembilan in the last general election, nor does it come into the elections with any state seats. Although the PN leadership has pledged to capture the state in the coming state election, this objective might just prove a bridge too far.

For example, PH boasts the reasonably popular transport minister Loke Siew Fook, who holds the state seat of Chennah, and former menteri besar Mohamad Hasan in the Rantau seat, both formidable adversaries.

PN isn’t dead in the water however. PAS has long nurtured rural communities all over the central, south west, and south of the state, and PN support in Malay-majority seats like Sungai Lui, Seri Menanti or Senaling cannot be ignored.

But even if PN performs above expectations, this would give them around 11 seats, I believe, well short of the 19 needed to form government. Nevertheless, even this would embarrass the PH-BN coalition.

The most likely result sees PN picking up a handful of seats in Negeri Sembilan but remaining isolated in the state assembly.

It will be very difficult for PN to pick up non-Malay votes given the amount of religious ranting coming from PAS of late. While PN could run some candidates from the multiracial Gerakan in Chinese-majority seats, Gerakan has never been strong in Negeri Sembilan.

The biggest sticking points for PH and BN election campaigns are the rising cost of living and the work carried out by the parties to address social welfare, given the large pockets of relative poverty in some areas of the state, particularly affecting Indian communities.

How BN will tap into its traditional Malay base while working alongside DAP will also be a major factor. The alliance could set Umno back against Bersatu and PAS among Malay voters. Thus, seat allocations between PH and BN components will be critical.

It will also be interesting to monitor the impact of the corruption charges facing Bersatu’s president Muhyiddin Yassin as this will be our first chance to see if his pending prosecution plays any role in polling.

On the topic of corruption charges, there could also be huge repercussions if the movement supporting Najib Razak’s royal pardon gains steam.

So while we can certainly expect votes to swing away from PH-BN, all-in-all it won’t be enough for PN to steal more than a couple seats. - FMT

The views expressed are those of the writer and do not necessarily reflect those of MMKtT.