BN votes pushed PH past the post in Simpang Jeram, say analysts

 

Amanah’s Nazri Abdul Rahman won the Simpang Jeram by-election by an increased majority of 1,115 votes compared to his predecessor, the late Salahuddin Ayub. (Bernama pic)

PETALING JAYA: A vote transfer from Barisan Nasional to Pakatan Harapan helped the Anwar Ibrahim-led coalition secure a larger victory in the Simpang Jeram by-election than at the Johor state election last year, analysts said.

On Saturday, Amanah’s Nazri Abdul Rahman won the by-election by a majority of 3,514 votes. Nazri’s margin of victory was 1,115 votes more than the one secured by the late Salahuddin Ayub in 2022.

Mazlan Ali of Universiti Teknologi Malaysia and Awang Azman Pawi of Universiti Malaya said the increased margin “clearly showed and proved” the transferability of votes from BN to PH.

“It seems like the support given by Umno (to PH) in the Simpang Jeram by-election was more significant than in the previous six state elections.

“It might be due to a better understanding (between the coalitions) and Umno still enjoying huge support from its grassroots in Johor,” Mazlan told FMT.

Both analysts said the voting pattern dispelled any notion of Umno supporters boycotting the BN-PH partnership.

This is despite Umno voters previously deserting the unity coalition to throw their support in favour of Perikatan Nasional candidates at the six state elections on Aug 12.

“The notion that the (Umno) grassroots would reject the partnership is untrue in this context,” Awang Azman told FMT.

Both Mazlan and Awang Azman said the Simpang Jeram polls proved that the Umno leadership had to a certain extent been successful in explaining BN’s partnership with PH.

“However, there is a need for continuous efforts from both BN and PH to explain (working together) to their respective grassroots, multiply support and build more momentum for the unity government,” Awang Azman said.

Mazlan said support given by BN grassroots to PH in Simpang Jeram would provide the impetus for the two coalitions to work more closely together in the Pelangai by-election in Pahang next month.

However, Azmil Tayeb of Universiti Sains Malaysia said the low voter turnout in Simpang Jeram made it difficult to draw firm conclusions.

He said it was likely that BN supporters did not come out to vote.

“(The results) are a mix of Umno’s legacy in Johor and low turnout by BN supporters,” he told FMT.

Only 60.9% of eligible voters cast their ballots in Simpang Jeram on Saturday, according to the Election Commission.

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Azmil also said Umno still had work to do to convince its supporters, after the relatively high “no-show” number at the ballot box. - FMT