PAS should focus on Umno-held seats in Negeri Sembilan, says analyst

 Azmi Hassan says many BN victories in the 2023 state election were secured by narrow margins.

DAP secretary-general Loke Siew Fook said the party would defend all 11 of its state seats in Negeri Sembilan. (File pic)

PETALING JAYA:

PAS would stand a better chance of making gains in Negeri Sembilan if it focused on Umno-held seats rather than attempting to break into DAP strongholds, according to an analyst.

Azmi Hassan of Akademi Nusantara said many Barisan Nasional victories in the 2023 state election were secured by narrow margins.

Azmi Hassan.

He said the situation was markedly different in DAP-held constituencies, where the party recorded convincing wins across most seats.

“If PAS intends to contest all Umno-held seats, there is some logic to that because Umno’s margins of victory in the last state election were very slim.

“But for DAP’s 11 seats, even the smallest majority exceeded 2,000 votes. The rest were won with healthy and comfortable margins,” he told FMT.

Azmi was commenting on remarks by Negeri Sembilan PAS chief Fairuz Isa, who did not rule out the possibility of the party contesting several constituencies traditionally held by DAP.

Fairuz said PAS aimed to contest more than 10 state seats, similar to its showing in the 2023 election, including defending the three seats it currently holds.

However, he said the final decision would depend on seat negotiations, should PAS enter into cooperation with other parties.

In the 2023 election in Negeri Sembilan, Perikatan Nasional (PN) won five of the state’s 36 seats. PAS captured Paroi, Serting, and Bagan Pinang, while Bersatu won Labu and Gemencheh.

On June 7, DAP secretary-general Loke Siew Fook said the party would defend all 11 of its state seats in Negeri Sembilan.

Mazlan Ali.

Universiti Teknologi Malaysia analyst Mazlan Ali said PAS’s move reflected the party’s strong determination, but that the path to victory remained difficult.

He said the split between PAS and Bersatu could divide the Malay vote that previously backed PN, potentially weakening the Islamic party’s prospects, particularly in mixed constituencies and areas with large non-Malay electorates.

“When the Malay vote is split, DAP still has a chance of winning. Even in constituencies with around 40% Malay voters, some Malays who support PH, PKR, and Amanah will continue to vote for DAP candidates,” he said.

Mazlan said PAS’s prospects improved significantly only in constituencies where Malays make up more than 70% of the electorate.

He added that Negeri Sembilan’s political landscape differed from that of northern states and the east coast, where PAS traditionally benefits from stronger Malay support.

“I respect PAS’s determination, but I believe it will be difficult for the party to achieve its target in the Negeri Sembilan state election,” he said. - FMT