‘BN’s Johor fortress can be broken’

According to Bukit Bendera MP Liew Chin Tong, this was possible if Pakatan Rakyat secures the support of 35% Malay, 80% Chinese and 50% Indian voters.

GEORGE TOWN: About 20 of 26 parliamentary seats in Johor, considered the last bastion of Barisan Nasional, can fall like dominoes in the 13th general election, said a DAP MP.

According to Bukit Bendera MP Liew Chin Tong’s calculations, this was possible if Pakatan Rakyat can secure the support of 35% Malay, 80% Chinese and 50% Indian voters.

Hence, he said Pakatan could secure the much-needed 112-seat threshold to form the next federal government with just seats from Peninsular Malaysia.

Only eight Johor parliamentary constituencies have more than 60% Malay votes, which he considered were harder to win with the current level of support for Pakatan.

In his latest article in DAP mouthpiece, The Rocket, he noted that no Johor seat had more than 60% Chinese voters.

Johor has 56 state seats.

He said in the last two rounds of seat re-delineation exercises in 1994 and 2003, many multi-ethnic mixed seats were created for BN to maximise its appeal and make the most out of the opposition’s inability to win across ethnic boundaries.

He said PAS was made to be seen by the BN-controlled media to non-Malays as anathema to their interests while DAP as a threat to the Malays.

“Before 2008, PAS supporters rarely voted for DAP and vice versa,” said Liew.

But, it all changed in the last 2008 general election when PAS benefited from Chinese and Indian support for the “anything but Umno” call while some urban Malays voted for DAP for the first time.

Consequently, he said many multi-ethnic seats in the states north of Negeri Sembilan on the west coast of the Peninsula fell to the opposition.

For the coming election, he picked Sabah and Johor as the two most crucial battlefields.

While Sabah is attracting substantial attention, he said it could be hampered by seat negotiation and cooperation among various opposition groups.

“Johor is where BN may fall like dominoes,” claimed Liew, targeting some 20 mostly ethnically-mixed parliamentary constituencies.

However, he cautioned that without 25% Malay support and even with a huge non-Malay swing to Pakatan, the whole momentum could just fizzle out with very few seats gained.

Indian support consistent

He recalled that Pakatan received only about 20% Malay support in Johor during the 2008 general election.

But, if 35% of the Malay voters backed Pakatan in the forthcoming election, he said “anything could happen. It is tough to get 35% Malay support, but it is not impossible”.

He cited a recent opinion poll showing that Malay support for Pakatan in Johor has exceeded 30% though it varies among parties.

According to opinion polls, Malay backing for PAS was higher and for DAP, it was lower than average.

Chinese support for Pakatan was estimated at 70%, with support for DAP exceeding while PAS lower than average.

Indian support was constant at 50%.

Liew believes greater cooperation among Pakatan partners can improve all-round support from various communities.

“As election approaches, I believe the gaps will narrow if PAS and DAP, with the help of PKR, manage to convince supporters to vote for each other in the context of the coalition,” he said.

From purely mathematics simulations, Liew listed several possible post-election scenarios in Johor, assuming Indian support for Pakatan is constant:

• Malay support at 25%, Chinese support at 65%, Pakatan will win just one parliamentary seat in Johor;

• Malay support at 30%, Chinese support at 70%, Pakatan will win six seats;

• Malay support at 30%, Chinese support at 75%, Pakatan will win 12 seats;

• Malay support at 35%, Chinese support at 75%, Pakatan will win 16 seats;

• Malay support at 35%, Chinese support at 80%, Pakatan will win 20 seats.

Although his forecast was just simulations on paper, Liew said it showed optimism that BN’s Johor fortress can crumble in a perfect storm.

He said it would signal a fresh tsunami alert from Johoreans to a government that refused reforms.

“Johor is BN last bastion but the next election could just turn its fortress into a mere sand castle,” predicted Liew.