Election in June?

If the public opinion is turning against the current PM, the ruling party will be expected to remove the incumbent leader.

COMMENT

The news is out that there might be a lengthy delay in the holding of the 13th general election. What will be the cost of further delays – beyond April 2013 – for Barisan Nasional, the country and the opposition?

Recently, several foreign newspapers and portals pinpointed on the difficulties faced by the ruling coalition to hold the polls.

Among the ruling coalition, there are fears of yet another setback, if the polls are held before April 2013.

Dr Mahathir Mohamad has periodically voiced his views that BN will be winning the next elections, but with a reduced majority. Lately, he suggested such a victory will render the regime destitute, or rather impotent.

In Malaysia, while most observers were adamant the polls will be held in 2012, they were dumbfounded by the prime minister’s hesitations.

With the month of January ducked, the month of February crossed-out, there is left the months of March, April or May.

Leadership crisis?

However, the month of June – as some observers are pointing out – could be the time for the elections.

Putrajaya seems emboldened by the calls from the Sabah State Reform Party (STAR) chairman Jeffrey Kitingan, to delay the Sabah polls.

This could be used to bolster plans to hold the 2013 polls, beyond the dissolution of the Parliament in April.

Nonetheless, there are talks in town within the local political cahoots, that elections may eventually be held in June this year.

The two weeks school holidays in May and June could be the appropriate time, it is said to hold the polls.

Beyond that period, there will be major Islamic events, that would render holding the polls a monumental task.

The reason for further delays? The massive crowd in Kuala Lumpur on Jan 12, supporting the opposition’s call for free and fair elections.

The backlash of the water crisis in Selangor is cited as one of the reasons for BN to seek a lengthy delay in calling for the elections.

The failure to dissipate the accusations against the prime minister by a former “friend” of the PM’s family, is another credible reason.

The negative predictions by a key analyst of Bank Islam, could yet be another probable reason for the possible delays.

Further delays, however, could spark a leadership crisis within Umno.

Leadership change?

Many would ask, what would the government gain in delaying the polls further still?

Mahathir’s comments, with regard to the leadership of Najib Tun Razak, says a lot about the mood in the ruling Umno.

If the public opinion is turning against the current PM, the ruling party will be expected to remove the incumbent leader. The possibility that a new leader with popular appeal could supercharge the BN, was not discounted by Pakatan Rakyat.

The opposition, crunching the scenarios, has already taken steps to stall any change of leadership within BN.

The portals supporting Pakatan have, since June last year, campaigned against the removal of Najib as PM. Opposition columnists alienated the PM’s deputy, Muhyiddin Yassin, as a ploy to divert attention.

Posters urging Muhyiddin to grab the Umno leadership appeared in Johor, in clear signs he had grassroots support.

PKR led a campaign, portraying Muhyiddin as a stooge of Mahathir.

The opposition, seeing Najib as weak, is aware of the impact of a new face on the BN posters.

Could this damage its chances among the Malay majority community? Malaysians are known to have, convulsively, a liking for new faces.

If that will be the case, there is little doubt that Umno will need time to remove a sitting PM, and to call for fresh polls.

Thus, the need for the strategists to ponder on the month of June or beyond. In this manner, Malaysia may dissolve its Parliament but the country could still be run by a “caretaker government”.

Hence the month of June, at least to some, is seen as the real date for the 13th general election in Malaysia.

KL-based Amir Ali works for an Indonesian NGO called the Warisan Melayu Riau, which is based in Bengkalis, Riau.