THE POWER AND WEALTH EQUATION IN MAHATHIR’S POLITICS

So this is currently what it is all about. It is not about save Umno. It is not about save 1MDB. It is not about save Malaysia. Hell, it is not even about save Boboi. It is about save as much of that RM100 billion as possible since the entire RM100 billion cannot be saved unless Mukhriz becomes Prime Minister and the Mahathir dynasty emerges. And this must be done before the proxies realise that the lice are leaping off from Mahathir’s body and the rats are moving in to nibble at the carcass.

THE CORRIDORS OF POWER

Raja Petra Kamarudin

Yesterday, in the article ‘How Najib defeated Mahathir by doing nothing’, we spoke about the real reason why Tun Dr Mahathir Mohamad wants to oust Prime Minister Najib Tun Razak. And we mentioned in that article it is because Najib did not help Mahathir in his attempt to build his political dynasty.

In 2009, Mukhriz was supposed to become the Umno Youth Leader (to replace Khairy Jamaluddin who belonged to the ousted Tun Abdullah Ahmad Badawi family and therefore should have also been ousted) and in 2013 Mukhriz was supposed to become one of the three Umno Vice Presidents.

On both attempts Mukhriz failed and hence the Mahathir dynasty did not come into being. And Mahathir blames Najib for that — who could have and should have told Khairy and Hishammuddin Hussein to stand down and allow Mukhriz to win. It was after that second failed attempt in 2013 that Mahathir decided that the only way he is going to build his dynasty would be to first oust Najib from office.

That is the long and short of it all. Najib is an obstacle to his son’s rise to power and if his son cannot rise up the ranks then the Mahathir dynasty will not come into being.

In fact, in 2009 most people did not expect Khairy to win considering that his father-in-law had been given an unceremonious exit from Putrajaya. So when Mukhriz failed to oust Khairy it was a shock to most people, Mahathir in particular, and Mahathir believed that Najib intentionally plotted Mukhriz’s loss.

Political dynasties are important when you have so much to protect and so much to lose if you lose power. Even in America you see the emergence of political dynasties, as you do in many Asian countries. And are not Najib, Hishammuddin, Nur Jazlan Mohamed, Lim Guan Eng, Gobind Singh Deo, Nurul Izzah Anwar, etc., also second-generation political leaders and members of a political dynasty?

Others were able to do it but Mahathir could not. And this is what upset him terribly and is why he can never forgive Najib who he blames for this failure. But Khairy and the many others did not receive Najib’s help. They did it all on their own. So why should Mahathir expect Najib to help bring his son up? Would that not just mean that his son does not deserve to win if he needs it to be served the win on a silver platter?

But then Mahathir’s situation is not quite like the others and should not be compared to the others. The others may want to win but they have nothing to lose if they do not. Mahathir, however, cannot afford to lose because he has so much to lose if he fails to build his dynasty. And what he has to lose is the RM100 billion (some say more than that) which he has parked in the names of proxies and nominees.

Mahathir says he is just trying to save Umno. At least that was what he first said in 2013. Mahathir accused Najib of pampering the Chinese and of neglecting the Malays. In fact, in the run-up to the May 2013 general election, Mahathir whacked Lim Kit Siang and DAP and called them racists, which you can see in the video below. Hence Mahathir was pissed that Najib gave too much face to the Chinese, who still did not vote for Barisan Nasional.

Then Mahathir whacked Najib for giving too much face to Singapore (also Chinese) and for listening or kowtowing to Singapore by not building the Crooked Bridge. But Mahathir realised that this racial and anti-Singapore stance was not strong enough to oust Najib and that he needed something stronger. And that was when Muhyiddin Yassin brought the 1MDB issue to Mahathir and suggested that this be the platform to oust Najib.

But first 1MDB needed to fail so they sabotaged the IPO and blocked all loans to 1MDB to bring it to its knees. And then they embarked on a smear campaign and bribed journalists and bloggers in Malaysia, the UK, the US, Australia, and so on, to write negative reports about 1MDB.

So now it is about saving 1MDB and no longer about the Chinese or Singapore.

When Najib failed to be ousted in July 2015 as planned, Mahathir, again, moved the goalposts and said this is about saving Malaysia. So he launched his Save Malaysia campaign and the Citizens’ Declarationand so on. Mahathir realised that the 1MDB issue was not strong enough and he needed a broader ‘reform’ platform to appeal to Malaysians. So Mahathir copied or ciplak what the Reformasi movement did in 1998 and started talking about saving Malaysia and the Citizens’ Declaration and so on.

All this and more were aimed at only one thing, which is to oust Najib so that he can build his dynasty. And unless he can build his dynasty then Mukhriz can never become Prime Minister and if the Mahathir dynasty does not materialise that will put the RM100 billion at jeopardy.

So this is no longer about saving Umno or saving 1MDB or saving Malaysia. That is all history. It is not even really about saving Boboi because Mukhriz is no longer in Umno or the Menteri Besar of Kedah, which means his career in Umno is totally finished. This is just about saving the RM100 billion the best way he can given the circumstances he is now in, which at the moment is not a very bright circumstance.

Mahathir knows it is game over for Mukhriz. When he was sacked as the Menteri Besar of Kedah and later as an Umno member it was already game over. And as the Deputy of the new all-Malay party, Pribumi, that is not going to make Mukhriz the Prime Minister or see the birth of a Mahathir dynasty.

In fact, to be realistic, it was also game over for Mahathir himself when his July 2015 coup collapsed and instead the coup leaders got beheaded. For all intents and purposes that was the beginning of the end and further nails were hammered into Mahathir’s coffin when his October 2015 vote of no confidence in Parliament did not happen and the December 2015 putsch at the Umno general assembly also did not take off.

Mahathir was hoping that Muhyiddin, as the Deputy to Najib, would be his inside man to deliver the goods. But then Muhyiddin is not the brightest bulb in the chandelier and when he was removed as Deputy Prime Minister in July 2015 and later sacked from the party, Mahathir more or less lost his Trojan horse.

The masterminds of the plot to replace Umno with Pribumi

There is no longer any doubt in anyone’s mind that Pribumi is not really going to do the trick. Mahathir is offering Pribumi as the replacement to Umno and the party that is going to oust Umno and take over Putrajaya. You might as well say that DAP is going to take over Kelantan on the back of its Ali Baba party, PAN.

Actually Pribumi died even before it could be born. When Mahathir failed to oust Barisan Nasional in the recent Sarawak state elections and in the twin by-elections in Sungai Besar and Kuala Kangsar, Pribumi was more or less a still birth and it does not matter whether the RoS approves that party or not.

Umno knows Pribumi is a non-starter, as do PKR, DAP, PAS, PAN and everyone. In fact, Mahathir himself knows this. But he cannot admit this although he has privately told his inner circle that hoping for Pribumi to oust Umno is a pie in the sky.

The fact that Muhyiddin is embroiled in a sex scandal and that there is an ongoing court case regarding this matter does not help matters much. But at least Pribumi has one thing in common with PKR, DAP and PAN, which is all their leaders are or were involved in sex scandals.

I was told that one of Mahathir’s proxies, who were supposed to contribute to Mahathir’s RM5 billion political fund, has decided to back down. Citing ‘personal reasons’, this crony told Mahathir he could no longer afford the RM1 billion that was promised.

This reminds me of a book I once read regarding WWI. The worst thing about that war, which was fought in trenches, was the rats and lice that the soldiers had to endure. When a soldier dies (and more than 10 million did) the lice would leave the dead body and jump onto a live soldier (and these buggers can sure leap, trust me on that). Lice never feed on corpses. And then the rats would come in and make a meal out of the corpse, which they could not remove until there was a lull in the shooting.

Removing the lice

And the rats

So that is what happens when you die on you are on the verge of death. You see the lice that have been sucking your blood abandon you while the rats move in to feast on you. And this is precisely what Mahathir is currently experiencing.

I recently met up with a Chinese businessman friend who I have known since the 1980s and he told me that he knows of many tycoons who would not shed any tears if Mahathir dies, both figure of speech as well as literally. These are tycoons who are acting as Mahathir’s proxies and have billions parked under their care.

This is similar to a chettiar who so many owe money to. If he were to expire then everyone would be free of debt because dead men cannot collect their debts. And Mahathir is akin to this chettiar. If he were to die and were to leave no political heirs then all his proxies would own whatever they are holding under their names.

So, for Mahathir it is important that his dynasty happens. If he were to die and his son takes over as the new political master then his proxies would not dare run off. But if he were to die and leave no dynasty, then he might as well kiss his RM100 billion goodbye.

So Mahathir needs to give an impression that he has not lost yet even though many may doubt whether he can still make it. As they say, a politician is not finished until he is dead and buried. As long as he is still breathing there is always a chance he can still make a comeback like the way Tun Ghafar Baba and Tun Abdullah Ahmad Badawi did.

Ghafar and Abdullah both lost their friends when they were in the political wilderness. They used to complain that no one visits them any more or even bothers to take their phone calls. Then suddenly they both bounced back and became Deputy Prime Ministers (and Abdullah later became Prime Minister).

So you never know. Mahathir might even call a truce and make a deal with Najib and part of that peace treaty would involve appointing Mukhriz as the new Deputy Prime Minister. If it can happen to Ghafar and Abdullah why can’t it happen to Mukhriz?

So Mahathir needs to continue to attack and continue to fight to create the impression that he is still in the game and is not yet finished even though it is already game over and his chances are zero. Then no proxy would dare abandon him and run off in case Mahathir comes back to life, like Ghafar and Abdullah did.

Mahathir cannot afford to wait until the next general election in 2018. Not only does he not have the advantage of age but Pribumi is going to get wiped out and will be buried for good. Then it would really be game over whatever perception Mahathir would like to create.

The political game is already over. Mahathir knows this. And delaying until the 2018 general election would be just delaying the inevitable. Mahathir needs to act now before people realise that he is just creating a smokescreen of success whereas in reality he has lost.

Mahathir knows he cannot possibly get back the entire RM100 billion, not unless his son becomes Prime Minister. But he can at least try to get back as much as he can even if it is just a portion of that RM100 billion. And Mahathir’s target is RM5 billion, which he is squeezing from his proxies on the excuse that he needs that money to oust Umno and allow the DAP-led Pakatan Harapan to take over Putrajaya.

But Mahathir does not really care about Pakatan Harapan or Putrajaya. Mahathir may be silly but he is not dumb. He knows when it is game over and it is already game over. The ship is sinking — there are no two ways about it. And when the ship sinks you abandon ship and try to salvage as much as you can.

So this is currently what it is all about. It is not about save Umno. It is not about save 1MDB. It is not about save Malaysia. Hell, it is not even about save Boboi. It is about save as much of that RM100 billion as possible since the entire RM100 billion cannot be saved unless Mukhriz becomes Prime Minister and the Mahathir dynasty emerges. And this must be done before the proxies realise that the lice are leaping off from Mahathir’s body and the rats are moving in to nibble at the carcass.