Game of PM numbers

 

In the game of political numbers, there is a possibility that no MP will be able to get the support of at least 111 parliamentarians to be prime minister.

On Tuesday, MPs were instructed to submit their vote in writing for their preferred candidate to become the next prime minister to Istana Negara by 4pm Wednesday.

One of the main contenders for the top post is Umno vice-president Datuk Seri Ismail Sabri Yaakob, who is said to have the support of 101 MPs (almost all with the Perikatan Nasional government).

The Bera MP needs the support of ten of the 15 Umno MPs who are aligned with party president, Datuk Seri Dr Ahmad Zahid Hamidi, and former prime minister, Datuk Seri Najib Razak. However, this faction is adamant in not supporting Ismail Sabri.

Umno is meeting at 8pm on Tuesday (Aug 17) to deliberate the party's sole choice to be prime minister.

If you crunch the numbers, though, it may not add up to 101.

For example, not all 31 Parti Pribumi Bersatu Malaysia MPs plus the four independents might support Ismail Sabri. Some prefer Bersatu president Tan Sri Muhyiddin Yassin to make a comeback as prime minister.

As such, the so-called Perikatan 2.0, consisting of parties such as Barisan Nasional (Umno, MCA, MIC and PBRS), Perikatan Nasional (Bersatu, PAS, Sabah STAR, and SAPP) and Gabungan Parti Sarawak, may not happen.

The other leading contender is Opposition leader and PKR president Datuk Seri Anwar Ibrahim.

His Pakatan Harapan, comprising DAP, PKR and Parti Amanah Negara, have 88 MPs. If Anwar gets the support of Warisan with eight MPs, he has 96 parliamentarians, which leaves him short of 15 MPs.

The Port Dickson MP could top up his support with a combination of MPs from small parties such as Upko (one), not-yet-registered Muda (one), Parti Sarawak Bersatu (two) and independents.

If he can get Zahid's 15 Umno MPs or GPS's 18 MPs, Anwar will be Malaysia's ninth prime minister. However, it is unlikely that Umno and GPS will support Anwar.

But, Perikatan 2.0 or Pakatan 2.0 might still happen, as politics is the art of the impossible.

What are the options if no politician can get the majority to be prime minister?

The option of a "new political landscape" emerged after political party leaders had a two-hour audience with Yang di-Pertuan Agong, Al-Sultan Abdullah Ri'ayatuddin Al-Mustafa Billah Shah.

After the meeting, Anwar told the media that the King specifically said there should not be any "sore losers" when a new prime minister is appointed.

"Everyone gave their views and it appeared that there was a consensus to put a stop to the old, boring ways of politics. The new political landscape must focus on development," Anwar said.

"The issue here is not the appointment of a new prime minister, but the King and the Deputy Yang di-Pertuan Agong want to form a new political landscape that is more peaceful and refreshing for Malaysians."

There is a possibility that a caretaker prime minister, who is not officially the ninth prime minister, could be appointed to unlock the political impasse if no MP gets the numbers.

The caretaker prime minister's job is to focus on overcoming the economic and health crisis caused by the Covid-19 pandemic.

There is a suggestion for Parliament to be dissolved so that the caretaker prime minister is not distracted by MPs who would be horse trading for power. Once the pandemic is under control, GE15 will be called.

Pejuang, led by its chairman Tun Dr Mahathir Mohamad, is favourable to the formation of a National Recovery Council (NRC) so that the focus is on addressing the Covid-19 pandemic rather than jostling for positions.

The candidate for the caretaker prime minister post needs to be a seasoned MP with experience and knowledge on the complex business of running a government.

The likely candidates for this post are Gua Musang MP Tengku Razeleigh Hamzah, Anwar and Najib.

Tengku Razaleigh is a frontrunner for such a move as he is seen as the politician with the least rejection rate. Most political leaders from the major parties are amiable to him. The Kelantan prince is also a former finance minister as well as trade and industry minister.

Anwar might be a divisive choice as the other side of the Pakatan political divide might now want to support him. Also, the PKR president has been away from power since 1998 after he was sacked as deputy prime minister and Umno deputy president.

Najib, who has the know-how to formulate a pandemic exit plan, can hit the ground running. If the country wants a quick solution during the crisis, it's Najib, who will be a controversial choice. But if amicability among the MPs is the priority, it is likely Razaleigh.

If a politician can't get the numbers by 4pm Wednesday, the appointment of a caretaker prime minister is a possibility. - Star