If Umno man becomes PM, many Bersatu reps may return to party, say analysts

 

All eyes will be on Sabah Umno chief Bung Moktar Radin (second from left) if the party is returned to power at the federal level, says an analyst.

KOTA KINABALU: Analysts believe many elected representatives from Bersatu could be returning to Umno after Muhyiddin Yassin resigned as prime minister, resulting in the party losing power at the federal level.

Oh Ei Sun.

Singapore Institute of International affairs senior fellow Oh Ei Sun contended that Bersatu MPs would be tempted to make the switch back to Umno, assuming it replaced Bersatu as the main driving force in the federal government.

“Bersatu never had any wide grassroots support in the first place. It won many of its seats because it was riding on the reform hurricane of Pakatan Harapan (in the last general election),” he told FMT.

“Then there were some Umno MPs crossing over to Bersatu. Therefore if it (Bersatu) is no longer in power, then yes, it is likely a lot of these MPs would return to Umno, assuming Umno is the one in power.”

Muhyiddin is now the caretaker prime minister after he stepped down on Monday with his entire Cabinet.

His successor has yet to be determined, and the appointment is the prerogative of the Yang di-Pertuan Agong, who has the power under the Constitution to select the person he believes is likely to command majority support in the Dewan Rakyat.

Universiti Malaysia Sabah senior lecturer Romzi Ationg also believes Bersatu MPs will cross over for the sake of their survival and to ensure they obtain continuous development funds for their constituencies.

“But some may not do so for various reasons, such as potential rejection from Umno and their own personal view over the possibility of building the party’s political strength.”

Romzi Ationg.

While Oh believed similar movements might take place in Sabah, where Umno is part of the Bersatu-led Gabungan Rakyat Sabah (GRS) state government, he said it would depend on state Umno chief Bung Moktar Radin.

“After the initial tussle (between Bersatu and Umno) and the state election, Bung has been keeping a rather low profile and did not try to shake the GRS leadership, as Umno had been doing at the federal level.

“So it really depends on Bung because Sabah Umno has a large degree of autonomy in that sense. It would appear that Bung is satisfied with what he has now,” he said.

But that stance could change overnight, he added, should someone from Umno be appointed prime minister.

“In that event, the Bersatu assemblymen and MPs might even make the switch to Umno on their own, without anyone instructing them to do so.

“And when Umno has many assemblymen (in Sabah), there might be sentiments among the Umno grassroots, urging Bung to make a move (for the chief minister’s seat).”

Oh pointed out that although Bung might not push for such a move, other Umno assemblymen could try to compel the Kinabatangan MP to do so, convinced that Umno should helm the chief minister’s seat by virtue of having the most representatives in the state assembly.

“Once Bersatu is out of power and out of the leadership position, I think it’s likely the party would eventually fizzle out or disintegrate because it doesn’t have a lot of base support,” he said.

Romzi disagreed with Oh’s view that Bersatu would fade away, including in Sabah, saying there were credible leaders in the party who could play significant roles to ensure its survival.

“In truth, many are hoping the GRS government will not be affected by federal politics,” he said.

Meanwhile, Universiti Malaya’s Awang Azman Pawi said even in the event of Umno taking the prime minister’s seat, the situation in Sabah would “remain status quo”.

Awang Azman believes that although some Bersatu assemblymen could return to Umno, there will not be any conflict between the two parties in Sabah.

“The Bersatu-Umno relations will remain harmonious as long as the general election is not held yet,” he said. - FMT