Umno and PH cannot afford a break-up, says analyst

 

Umno president Ahmad Zahid Hamidi (left) joined forces with Pakatan Harapan chairman Anwar Ibrahim to form a government after an inconclusive general election in November.

PETALING JAYA: Neither Umno nor Pakatan Harapan can afford a break-up of their partnership in the unity government as they need each other to stay in power, says a political analyst.

Azmil Tayeb of Universiti Sains Malaysia (USM) said PH needed Umno in order to form a stable government, while Umno needed to be in government with PH to access ministries and GLCs.

“For Umno, allying with PH is better than with Perikatan Nasional since it will become the ‘third-ranking member’ in the coalition, where it has to compete for the same seats and resources with the more dominant PAS and Bersatu,” he told FMT.

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PAS and Bersatu, who are partners in PN, won 74 seats in the last general election while Umno only managed 26.

Last week, former Umno vice-president Ismail Sabri Yaakob had given warning of cracks in the “forced marriage” with PH after Umno leaders had clashed openly with DAP.

Umno and DAP leaders have butted heads over Umno’s standing with Malay voters and over its support of a royal pardon for former prime minister Najib Razak, who is serving a jail term for corruption.

Azmil said the unity government would last a full term as long as Umno president Ahmad Zahid Hamidi was able to maintain his grip on the party.

Another political analyst, Azeem Fazwan Ahmad Farouk of USM’s Centre for Policy Research and International Studies, said there might be some truth to Ismail’s “forced marriage” analogy given the long-time animosity between Umno and DAP.

The survival of the unity government would depend on whether Umno would win seats in the state assembly elections in six states soon. Should the party win seats, then it would stick with the unity government.

“However, if they were wiped out (in those state elections), then they might want to adopt other strategies.”

Azeem said Umno would be at the losing end should it pull out from the unity government. “But they might want to reconsider their alliance with (DAP and PH) at the state or federal level during the next national general election.” - FMT