Polling day arrives for Batu Sapi, Galas: BN seen having the edge

Malaysia Chronicle

It is polling day for the people of Batu Sapi and Galas. The former is a parliamentary seat and the latter is a state assembly seat. But win or lose, the outcome will not change the existing power equation whether in the federal Parliament or the Kelantan state government.

Nevertheless, Malaysians from different corners of the country will be watching this contest – partly because there is no other major news event after U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton's high-profile visit earlier in the week, and mostly because the by-elections serve an indication of how the two main coalitions in Malaysia – BN and Pakatan Rakyat - are shaping up.

Polling will only begin at 8am and close at 5pm. The Meteorological Department has forecast clear weather in the morning and rain towards the evening for both constituencies. The Election Commission has said it expects to announce the results by 8pm.

In Batu Sapi, the most widely anticipated outcome is a BN win with PKR and SAPP close on its heels. In Galas, again the edge may lie with Umno rather than PAS. Both seats are traditional strongholds of the BN and a loss will be ominous for Prime Minister Najib Razak, who is trying to convince his Umno party to let him to hold snap national polls next year.

“For me, taking into account the local factors, I believe Batu Sapi will go to BN’s Linda Tsen. In Galas, the competition will be closer and there is a chance that PAS can pull through,” Dr Ong Kian Meng, professor at UCSI, told Malaysia Chronicle.

Strong campaigns from both Pakatan, BN

Batu Sapi in Sandakan is a three-cornered fight between Linda, a PBS candidate and the widow of the late rep Edmund Chong who died in a biking accident last month.

Although she obviously lacks experience compared to her two seasoned rivals – former Sabah chief minister Yong Teck Lee from SAPP and prominent lawyer Ansari Abdullah from PKR - she has carried herself well and is likely to cart away many sympathy votes.

Even so, BN’s winning margin is expected to be reduced compared to the 3,708-vote margin chalked by the late Edmund.

“To me, we are there based on the support that we have received in the past few days. I predict an upset by PKR because I am sure Sabahans will not want to let such an opportunity for real change slip past their hand once again,” Ansari told Malaysia Chronicle.

“It is true we started slowly but with the national leaders like Anwar Ibrahim and Lim Kit Siang showing up and working round the clock, the people here began to understand what Pakatan is about and what change for Malaysia and Sabah means.”

In Galas, Kelantan, which fell vacant after PAS assemblyman Chek Hashim Sulaima died from colon cancer last month, the contest is a straight fight between PAS’ Dr Zulkefli Mohamad and Umno’s Abdul Aziz Yusof.

Both are ‘local’ men with good personalities although constituents are likely to base their choice on the party the candidates represent.

Galas is part of the Gua Musang parliamentary constituency held by Umno veteran Tengku Razaleigh Hamzah, who has opted to go for a low-profile campaign compared to the usual high-cost productions favored by his party.

Despite tight campaigning by PAS, the chances are it may lose the state seat as many of the constituents may opt for Umno, knowing that such a decision will not upset the power equation in PAS-dominated Kelantan.

“We have our own confidence, so don’t write us off. We may not have enough ‘pitih’ (money) to offer multi-million ringgit projects but we don’t think the Kelantan people will desert us. Yes, I understand that usually in by-elections, they may vote for Umno especially when we have general elections coming soon where they can be more serious and vote back PAS, but we urge our supporters to stay with us,” Dr Dzulkefli toldMalaysia Chronicle.

Facts and figures

Batu Sapi - P185

Total number of voters: 25,582 comprising 24,047 ordinary and 1,535 postal voters (601 voters at Sandakan Naval Base, 271 at IPD Sandakan and 663 at PGA Sandakan) (Postal votes were cast on Nov 2)

Demographic profile: 13,835 (54.08 per cent) male voters and 11,747 (45.92 per cent) female voters

Ethnic composition: Muslim Bumiputra (59.02 per cent or 15,099) Chinese (38.06 per ent or 9,737), non-Muslim Bumiputra (2.69 per cent or 689) and Indian (0.22 per cent or 57 voters).

Nomination and vote-tallying centres: Sandakan Community Hall

Polling centres: 12 centres in 11 schools and a regional library, with a total of 45 polling streams

All 12 polling station open from 8am to 5pm, except SK Sigulud (closes at 4pm) and SK Pulau Timbang (closes at 3pm)

Returning officer: Hamsan Awang Supaian, Sandakan Municipal Council Secretary

Election workers: 405 staff
Size of the constituency : 560.9 sq km

March 2008 general election result: Datuk Edmund Chong (BN) polled 9,479 votes as against Dr Chung Kong Wing (Independent) 5,771 votes. Chong won with a 3,708-vote majority. The by-election is called following the death of Chong on Oct 9 in a motorbike accident.

Galas - N45

Candidates: Abdul Aziz Yusoff, 49, (BN), former Kesedar operations manager; Dr Zulkefli Mohamad, 44, (PAS) (medical practitioner)

Incumbent: Che Hashim Che Sulaima, 46, (PAS) (Che Hashim died on Sept 27 after suffering from colon cancer. He won the seat in 2008 general election after defeating BN's Mohamed Saufi Deraman by a 646-vote margin)

District: Gua Musang
Economic activities: Agriculture and business

Number of voters: 11,553 (127 postal voters)

Composition: Malay (7,125 or 61.7 per cent), Chinese (2,317 or 20.06 per cent), Indian (185), Orang Asli (1,889) and Siamese community (10).

Returning officer: Wan Mustapha Wan Abdul Hamid
Polling: Nov 4, 2010
Polling streams: 25
Polling centres: 13

Number of polling districts requiring helicopter service: four in Orang Asli area (Belatim, Balar, Bihai and Hau)

Vote-tallying centre: Dewan Pusat Sivik Gua Musang, Jalan Pesiaran Raya, Gua Musang.