Spring has not come for BN, nether has winter fallen on Pakatan

Tay Tian Yan

Has spring arrived for the Barisan Nasional (BN), while winter seems to be fast descending on the Pakatan Rakyat? OMG, I can hear such talk everywhere nowadays.

No, politics should not be interpreted in such a way.

Before we can analyse politics, we must first understand the difference between “partial” and “overall”, “phenomenon” and “trend”, as well as “local” and “nation”.

Yes, the BN has won both the Galas and Batu Sapi by-elections but these are partial victories, a kind of phenomenon and the key lies in the local factors.

On the contrary, they are not a victory of the BN as a whole. They do not fully reflect the political trend, and national issues were not playing a critical role in the two by-elections.

To put it simple, the BN has learned how to use the right campaign strategy in constituencies advantageous to it to gain victory in the by-elections that it is suppose to win.

In contrast, the Pakatan Rakyat still has not learned how to use effective strategy to fish for votes in constituencies disadvantageous to it. Therefore, it suffered great losses. That’s it.

Of course, I must explain further on the advantageous and disadvantageous constituencies, as well as right and wrong campaign strategies.

Many people know that the BN advantage is in remote semi-urban constituencies, but very few people learn about the political ecology and culture of these constituencies. True, they might not have a high culture, but they indeed have their own political culture.

These constituencies are located outside the influence of political and information centres while national and racial group issues are not even familiar within the scope of their experiences, not to mention to provoke their feelings.

When DAP parliamentary leader Lim Kit Siang and PKR advisor Datuk Seri Anwar Ibrahim visited these places, local people went to see these political celebrities out of curiosity.

For the local rural people, listening to Lim and Anwar was like listening to a kind of foreign language that they could not understand at all. These voters pay more attention to the concept of sensibility and their livelihood.

In Galas, Gua Musang MP Tengku Razaleigh Hamzah or Ku Li is the big guardian of the Malays, a loyal old friend of the Chinese and a Raja of the Orang Asli. There is no need for Ku Li to talk about any political issues. All he needs to do is go to the kampungs and shake hands with the people, and the votes are guaranteed.

As for the Bumiputera community in Batu Sapi, BN is the only government and the head of BN is the power holder. They should not offend the government and the power holder as their alms are very much needed.

Of course, candies and cakes must still be distributed.

Remember, never try to talk too much about politics and provoke racial sentiment in these places.

In the past by-elections, from Permatang Pauh, Kuala Terengganu, Bukit Gantang to Bukit Selambau, BN had played too much of politics, including smearing Anwar and highlighting racial issues. As a result, it backfired, causing disgust among old and young voters. It had also failed to please both Malay and non-Malay voters and ended up in a pathetic failure.

BN changed its strategy in Galas and Batu Sapi, this time by appearing as a welfare agency that brought harmony. The strategy worked.

BN has started to understand that, as a ruling party, it will only lead voters to think if it provokes sentiments and plays with certain issues. It is not a good thing for the ruling party if voters start to think.

The victories in Galas and Batu Sapi show that BN has found its advantages. But urban constituencies are still an advantage of the Pakatan Rakyat. The BN has not yet passed the test.

Spring is still a little bit further away. — mysinchew.com