Trust regained = monumental shift.

For UMNO, its Malay trust that is.

First some clarifications are in order. Maybe some people misread my criticisms on my own party. I saw my article being uploaded by Anwar Ibrahim ( Zaman kebangkitan?). Another article was uploaded by Lim Kit Siang. (Momentum yes…). The main purpose of these two articles is to provide a reality check on UMNO's exuberance. They are not written to push forward the agenda of parties opposed to UMNO.

I have said it many times, I believe in UMNO being the safest bet for the Malays and Malaysians in general.

Because, the bedrock of UMNO has always been moderation and pragmatism. For example, some people may say cooperation with non-Malays is tantamount to selling out Malay interests. The truer interpretation is that UMNO is pragmatic enough to acknowledge that this country needs the participation of all Malaysians. 1 Malaysia as a concept of inclusiveness is workable provided the big idea percolates down wards. It can become an operational concept provided, I believe, if that idea becomes a shared ideal.

At the same time, the UMNO leadership must be realistic enough to admit it cant shed its ethnicity and the responsibilities entrusted upon it as a result of that identity.

Unfortunately as I see it, the idea is not being sold down the line. It then becomes non-operational and the PM is looked upon as being disconnected. That portion of connectivity and making the concept operational, I have criticized extensively.

I have called it as it is. During the recent UMNO General Assembly, if delegates and UMNO people are honest enough, they will have to come to terms that delegates in general rejected the big ideas of Najib. They didn't want 1 Malaysia- they wanted Malay first. They didn't want the New Economic Model- they insisted on NEP like policies. In the end, Najib has to defend himself by declaring the fact that he is Tun Razak's son.

I bring the same attitude when assessing what happened in the recent by elections. People forget that I was rooting in for an UMNO win in Galas. But then I see something wrong in the extrapolations after Galas.

Some people are irked that I said the wins in Galas and Batu Sapi created a momentum but they haven't reached the level of a monumental shift.

The Batu Sapi's majority is marred by a mathematical error. Indeed, the BN candidate won but not by the majority of 6000 plus. The majority should be the difference between her votes and the combined votes of the opposition. It's not the difference between her and her nearest rival.

When seen in the proper way, she got a marginal increase over that achieved by her late husband. It's a win in any case of course. We must be honest in our analysis if we were to make meaningful responses.

The opposition says BN spent a lot of money. That's not true. The projects brought by BN will be enjoyed by both who voted and those who didn't vote for BN. in any case, haven't we heard the opposition parties saying that politics of selling development don't work anymore?

But in terms of a quantum leap? She only got 620 votes more than her late husband did. This is not a monumental shift.

In Galas, we shouldn't uncork the non-alcoholic sparkling drink yet. UMNO won by a majority of 1190 votes. That's true. But where does the majority come from?

The increase in Malay votes for UMNO was around 4 percentage points. This is hardly a monumental shift. UMNO got more votes from the orang Asli and gained some 200 votes from the Chinese.

The only possible explanation that I could come up with, the bulk of UMNO's support came from 'repenting' UMNO votes. PAS won the last time because a sizeable number of UMNO people voted for them. From those who didn't like the UMNO candidate then- Saufi Deraman. They have now come back.

So in terms of Malay votes, there is only a perceptible change in status quo. I would say, Malay supporters of UMNO and PAS are about even.

The people who hold the balance are the Chinese and the orang Aslis. I am sorry to say, these are fickle minded supporters. They flow with the tide of fortune. They may go the other way around.

So, in order to say that we have created a monumental shift, a lot more work has to be done in the Malay heartland.

So before UMNO people start accusing me of riding rough shod over UMNO's sensitivities, please think again. I believe UMNO is the safest bet for Malays and Malaysians.

But UMNO must first of all recapture that trust among Malays first. In Galas, if it could only take away 4% of Malay votes from PAS, I can't support the opinion that says it's a monumental shift. It's even more ridiculous if I am forced to interpret this marginal shift as indicative of the general acceptance of 1 Malaysia, ETP, GTP etc.

I am not saying I am right, but unless you can come up with a more convincing argument beyond mere invectives saying that I am double faced and serves me right for being dropped as candidate in 2008, I will be inclined to say you are a fool.

I want UMNO to win with substance and secure that victory on conviction.

So think about this. In 2008, UMNO candidates got only about 2 million votes from 5.7 million Malay votes. I will concede, we have made a monumental shift, if we can recapture the bulk of the 5.7 million Malay voters. Now, that is a tectonic shift.

As for me, let's just say I am UMNO's early warning siren. Does not matter if it's self-appointed.

courtesy of sakmongkol AK47