Tsunami in Tunisia

Tunisia’s Revolution has a familiar ring to it, not unlike of Malaysia’s 2008 Political Tsunami

One of the top news websites in the United States referred to Tunisia’s revolution as a “tsunami” (read here). Sounds familiar? Which means we can likely expect chaos, disunity and a long road ahead for democracy activists in Tunisia.

I also came across the following analysis of Gordon Tullock, a professor of Law and Economics and a respected public choice theorist in the United States:

“Any one person’s decision to participate in a revolution does not much affect the probability that the revolution will succeed. Therefore, when each person considers participating in the revolution, the expected benefits that he takes account of that are generated by the revolution are not much affected by his own decision to participate. This is true, noted Tullock, even for the most visible and influential participants. On the other hand, noted Tullock, a nasty government can individualize the costs very effectively by heavily punishing those who participate in a revolution. So anyone contemplating participating in a revolution will be comparing heavy individual costs and small benefits that are simply his pro rata share of the overall benefits. Therefore, argued Tullock, for people to participate, they must expect some benefits that are tied to their own participation, such as a job in the new government or whatever. Tullock noted that, in fact, the typical revolution involves many of the people who are actually in the government they are revolting against. This is evidence for his model, Tullock said, because such people are particularly well situated to replace the incumbent office-holders.”

It should therefore not be a surprise when we find ex-UMNO types in Pakatan Rakyat, importing their culture. Nor should we be surprised when/if a PR government takes power, that there were be many shades of grey in how the opposition functions once in government.

Political transitions are complicated and messy processes. Ultimately the most important thing is to ensure strength in institutions of the free press, judiciary and electoral system so that there is adequate protection from tyranny and freedom to elect new leaders.

However, the road to Putrajaya is full of challenges. It is not going to be a walkover. I am less optimistic. The rate at which things are happening in Parti Keadilan Rakyat, the anchor in the Pakatan Rakyat coalition, the chances of gaining control of Putrajaya are increasingly remote.

The other side, UMNO-BN, will not hand over power that easily. Under Prime Minister Najib, UMNO-BN is reinventing and reimaging itself. 1Malaysia resonates with most Malaysians. There is new leadership in MIC and MCA. On the civil society front, we see the emergence of Malaysian Civil Liberties Movement (MCLM) and splinter parties like KITA led by Zaid Ibrahim and the divisions within PKR, Sabah and the departure of Jeffery Kitigan to lead his own East Malaysia centric movement for change.

Bloggers who were once in full support of Pakatan Rakyat (in 2008) have become disillusioned. UMNO-BN have also their own cadre of bloggers and cybertroopers, having learned the art of combat in cyberspace. The game will be different in 2011.–Din Merican