Arresting Anwar, crackdown will turn S'wak sentiment against BN

Arresting Opposition Leader Anwar Ibrahim or ordering any form of crackdown will be counter-productive for the BN ahead of the Sarawak state election on Saturday as it will only compound the public perception that Prime Minister Najib Razak and his administration is desperate, experts told Malaysia Chronicle on Friday.

"It would be best to let the situation roll. Voters should be allowed to vote in peaceful, calm and quiet surroundings without any pressure on them. Any move that distracts voters will be seen as a negative act on the part of the government," Ramon Navaratnam, chairman of the Centre for Public Policy Studies told Malaysia Chronicle.

"Instances such as the sudden appearance of blogger Raja Petra Kamaruddin has also caused public confusion. But with the elections so near, it is a double-edged sword that can cut both ways. It can take votes from the BN and impair Raja Petra's credibility."

Historical election

Sarawakians are due to vote in an election that experts predict will have far-reaching implications for Malaysian politics - both in Sarawak and in the peninsula.

Not only does controversial Chief Minister Taib Mahmud stand to lose the seat he has held for 30 years, a better than expected performance by Anwar's Pakatan Rakyat can pave the way for Najib's ouster from Umno, the dominant partner in the ruling BN coalition.

Alnd this may be why in the past weeks, a series of concerted attacks have been directed at Anwar, regarded by many to be the lynchpin and the glue that holds the Pakatan together.

A sex video scandal implicating him was released by a group of Umno leaders with links to Najib and other powerful party figures. But it failed to rake up public sentiment against Anwar. Instead it backfired and tarnished Umno, of which Najib is the president.

The most recent incident involved Raja Petra, formerly a staunch supporter of Anwar's who on national TV on Wednesday and Thursday made a U-turn criticising Anwar as a bad leader, while apparently clearing Najib and his wife Rosmah Mansor of being involved in the Altantuya murder and corruption case.

Again, it had little impact and did more to deepen the outrage Malaysians feel towards Najib and his ways of clinging to power. These political misjudgments have not gone unnoticed by powerful warlords at Umno, who are already raring for an opportunity to toss him out.

Nevertheless, Najib has persisted and the aggression with which his government has gone after Anwar has sparked talk that he may be arrested and a crackdown launched on other Pakatan leaders.

"I don't think many Malaysians believe in what they read or hear from the government media anymore," political analyst Ong Kian Ming told Malaysia Chronicle.

"It won't be the first time Anwar has been arrested and in 1999, it did not stop the voters from coming out. Neither did it stop Anwar from becoming the Opposition Leader. So I wouldn't bet much on the effectivenes of it being a scare factor but if anything, it may spark a wave of pro-Pakatan sentiment amongst the Sarawakian voters."

Sarawakians urged to watch out for electoral fraud

71 state seats are up for grabs on Saturday. Pakatan will contest for 69, with PKR going for 49, DAP 15 and PAS 5.

So far, response towards the Pakatan team has been unprcedented, bolstered by a stunning 10-points manifesto and a soft-toy mascot Ubah the Hornbill. In the manifesto, the Pakatan promised to raise petroleum royalty to 20 per cent from the existing 5 percent.

Other key highlights are a guarantee of freedom of religion, free WiFi to move Sarawak into a knowledge-state, a Competency, Accountability and Transparency system of governance, respecting the 18-points agreement and a promise to investigate allegations of the ill-gotten wealth of BN leaders and their cronies.

Of the three parties, PKR will be the one to take Taib head-on in his stronghold in the interior recesses of the state. According to PKR leaders, the response from the longhouses have been unprecedented exceeding even the crowds that greeted them in the kampungs in the peninsula in the 2008 genmeral election.

However, they are keeping their cards close to their chest, pointing out that huge electoral fraud was the greatest obstacle now, not the people's trust.

"We are on the alert but Najib and Taib have control of the government machinery and they can use it against us in the worse way. So while we are confident of a superb performance, we won't make any forecasts until tomorrow," PKR director of strategy Rafizi Ramli told Malaysia Chronicle.

Cash offers of RM1,000 have been tossed around the state the past week in exchange for votes by workers connected to the BN campaign. Development projects and various small gifts worth a total of RM500 million have been promised by BN leaders.

Two activists for free and fair elections, former Bar Council president Ambiga Sreenevasan and Wong Chin Huat have been barred from entering the state.

All eyes are on Taib and Najib and what sort of hand they will deal in the hours ahead. But most Malaysians are already betting on the worst sort of behavior from the two men and their parties as the struggle for Sarawak reaches its crescendo tomorrow. - Malaysia Chronicle