BN may win with ‘carpet bombing’

Analysts remain cautious over opposition's chances of breaking BN's two-thirds majority hold in the Sarawak State Legislative Assembly.

KUALA LUMPUR: Sarawak goes to the polls tomorrow and most analysts believe Barisan Nasional (BN) is on track to win the 10th state election.

However, they are cautious about the chances of the opposition derailing BN’s dream of maintaining a two-thirds majority in the 71-seat State Legislative Assembly.

Political analyst James Chin said that while it was clear that the state BN would win the election, the question of whether the BN could hold on to a two-thirds majority could only be answered on the eve of the election.

This is because the BN had a “track record of carpet bombing” (a term used to describe showering of gifts on voters) and this tactic could turn the tide against the opposition.

“I suspect the BN would start giving out goodies, including cash, right up to the eve of polling and this would have a big impact in rural areas, ” said Chin, a lecturer at Monash University.

He predicted that the opposition could capture between 12 and 27 seats.

“In the best-case scenario, the opposition could win 27 to 28 seats and in the worst-case, 10 to 14 seats,” he said.

At the last state election in 2006, the BN managed to win 63 seats while the DAP mustered only six. Sarawak National Party (SNAP) and PKR won one seat each.

This was a far cry from the BN’s record at the 2001 Sarawak state election, which saw the ruling coalition win 60 out of the 62 seats in the assembly. The number of state seats was increased due to an electoral boundary redelineation exercise.

Big, black hole

Chin said urban seats may contribute up to 14 seats for the opposition while the rest could come from rural and mixed seats.

The opposition would need to win more than 24 seats to deny the BN a two-thirds majority.

Another political analyst, Ooi Kee Beng, is more optimistic about the chances of the opposition.

He predicted that Pakatan Rakyat may win up to 20 seats.

“I do not want to play bomoh. Twenty seats are quite believable but beyond that is a big, black hole,” said Ooi, the coordinator of the Malaysian Studies Programme at the Southeast Asian Studies Institute.

He noted that Pakatan, while being able to make an impact in urban constituencies, was unable to touch base in rural seats.

This may work in favour of the BN since there are some 45 rural constituencies in the state.

Chin meanwhile said among the hotly contested urban seats were Kuching, Kota Sentosa, Pandungan, Sibu and Piasau where Sarawak United People’s Party (SUPP) president George Chan Hong Nam is contesting.

“It looks like the SUPP president is in deep trouble because local Chinese tycoons are against him. There is also a general sentiment that he had over-stayed his welcome and is closely associated with Taib.”

Towkay class

Chin added that based on SUPP’s track record, there was no reason for the Chinese in Sarawak to support the party as it only represented the interest of the “towkay class rather than the ordinary Chinese”.

He said that there were 10 hotly contested seats in the rural areas including Pelaga, Pelagus, and Batang Ai where the opposition’s chances were good and the margin of victory would be close.

However, as to whether the opposition can capture any of these seats, he said that it was too close to call.

Ooi also expressed surprise over Prime Minister Najib Tun Razak’s statement yesterday that attaining a two-thirds majority would be a bonus for the BN.

He said that usually those in power would always play up their attributes, but Najib’s statement seemed to be sending out the wrong signals.

“(I read it as) a signal aimed at BN supporters, a signal to mobilise as BN is feeling the heat of losing a two-thirds majority. Maybe it is too hard for them to call as well.”

Najib said on Wednesday that the BN was only looking to form a government where a simple majority was sufficient and a two-thirds majority would be a bonus.

He, however, clarified yesterday that he was misquoted and believed that the BN can retain a two-thirds majority.

“I wish to stress that BN can achieve a two-thirds majority in this election although it is harder fought than in the previous polls,” he was quoted as saying by Bernama.