In Negri, Pakatan eyes vote swing in four seats

Pakatan Rakyat (PR) believes a marginal five per cent vote swing in four key seats in Negri Sembilan will be enough to topple the Barisan Nasional state government.

State PR leaders told The Malaysian Insider that a win in the Pilah, Kelawang, Lenggeng, and Linggi state seats where BN won by wafer-thin majorities in Election 2008 would secure the coalition a simple majority in the 36-member state legislative assembly.

BN won Pilah by 1,258 votes, Kelawang by 1,167 votes, Lenggeng (1,285) and Linggi (1,575). BN won 52.6 per cent (178,048) of the state’s popular votes, while PR won 47.4 per cent (160,504) back then.

The ruling coalition currently controls the state government with 21 state assemblymen (Umno-19, MCA-1, MIC-1) while PR has 15 assemblymen (DAP-10, PKR-4, PAS-1). Should PR retain its current seats and win over four BN state seats, it would mean that PR would be able to control the state assembly with a 19-17 simple majority.

“These are the couple of seats where BN won by a small margin. We believe that we can win these seats if we can at least a five per cent swing, especially from the rural Malay votes in these areas,” state opposition chief Anthony Loke(picture) told The Malaysian Insider.

Negri Sembilan PR leaders have been ramping up efforts in recent months by organising talks and ceramahs in the Umno stronghold, and will focus on winning over rural Malay voters in the state, many of whom are traditional Umno supporters. PR bigwigs such as Datuk Seri Anwar Ibrahim and PKR vice-president Nurul Izzah Anwar have been making frequent rounds in ceramah circuits across the state in recent months, although the state election will most likely be called simultaneously with the general election.

The state has an estimated population of 1.012 million people, with 56.6 per cent in the urban areas, while the rest are considered rural folk. A total of 57.9 per cent of the state’s population are Bumiputeras, 25.6 per cent Chinese and 16 per cent Indians.

Loke, who is Lobak state assemblyman, said all three PR parties will be divying up the seat allocation equally — each party will get to contest 12 seats.

It is understood that a few key issues are likely to be used in PR’s campaign in Negri Sembilan — further subsidy cuts, high cost of living, the state’s under-development as well as issues concerning Mentri Besar Datuk Seri Utama Mohamad Hassan.

“We are going to focus on bread-and-butter issues... the issue of higher cost of living, impactof inflation and further subsidy cuts and how all these affect constituents, especially in semi-rural areas… as examples of PR’s ability to govern, we have good examples like the Penang and Selangor governments,” said Loke.

With the national subsidy bill expected to top RM20 billion this year, opposition leaders are already bracing for polls before the ruling BN makes inevitable cuts that could prove unpopular among voters.

“The MB has also got issues of his own, he has his fair share of controversies... the RM10 million in cash to United Kingdom through money changers, that issue has not been resolved. We will not hesitate to use this issue if we have to... ultimately we want a clean government,” said Loke.

Negri Sembilan Umno warlords have previously used allegations of an illegal money transfer to unseat the unpopular Mohamad, whose aides have denied the mentri besar was under a central bank probe. Mohamad, who became mentri besar in 2004, is currently under Bank Negara Malaysia probe for allegedly transferring funds amounting to RM10 million to London through a money changer, Salamath Ali.

PR’s Batu MP Chua Tian Chang revealed the matter in 2009 after the central bank said Salamath Ali Money Changer had contravened section 30 of the Money Changing Act 1998 and its licence was revoked on October 26.

PAS state commissioner Zulkefly Mohamed Omar charged that there have been fewer job opportunities in the state and that many youths had migrated to neighbouring states like Selangor to find better prospects.

“There’s been an increase in migration to other states and Negri is underdeveloped. The roads are bad, business is at a standstill and the state’s budget deficit has increased from RM2.1 billion to RM2.4 billion this year,” Zulkefly told The Malaysian Insider.