The Indian vote and where will it go in GE-13

The Indian Vote, for decades, has belonged to the MIC. Not to be mistaken with the urban Indian vote, of course, which would not touch the MIC with a ten foot pole.

The urban Indian voter has little respect for the MIC and generally considers them to be a collection of bandits out for themselves. There is also peer pressure. Announce to your friends that you have joined the MIC, and you will be greeted with disbelief, derision and laughter. You will also become the butt of joke everytime that politics comes up during your teh-tarik session. And nowadays, politics is always part of the discussion. Where Samy Velu was feared by his MIC syncophants and some of the poor, he was treated as a clown by the urban Indian voter. Palanivel fares no better, he has been dismissed as a silent fool.

The MIC knows it; they waste no time on the urban Indian voter. They are, in any event, a minority. The MIC focuses on the estates and the rural poor. There they have the upper hand. The less educated Indian voters, with no access to information, and who live from hand-to-mouth are the MIC’s target. They are easier to convince, to frighten and too often, to outright buy during elections. And so the MIC survived, delivering the Indian vote to Barisan at every election, and reaping the benefits, mostly for themselves.

But there was a pent-up anger on the ground. The majority of the Indians were poor, they were desperate, and they had nowhere to turn. Many youth turned to crime and Indian gangsterism became a national problem. Their frustration was shared by the urban Indians, who could see the problem, but could not do anything about it.

The MIC held all the levers of power and they were sure they could continue in this way indefinitely. If you made enough noise, you might get thrown a few scraps, but other than that it was status quo. Why bother with genuine, holistic solutions for the Indians, when they would vote for you anyway. In this, the MIC fatally miscalculated, as did the Barisan.

Then came 2008

The MIC’s bubble burst dramatically in 2008. The Indians, by nature an emotional people, were enraged by the destruction of a long-standing temple. To add salt to the wound, the demolition was carried out during Deepavali. It was the spark that lit the fuse.

Hindraf, a fringe organization that fought against deaths-in-custody and the destruction of Hindu temples, found itself with hundreds of attentive listeners when they went to give a speech in Banting shortly after the destruction of the temple. This was a huge leap for Hindraf, which hitherto, on a good day, would gather 20 participants when they would protest at police stations.

Hindraf was different from most Indian NGOs, though, as they were led by a group of hardened lawyers and activists who were neither afraid nor could be bargained with. Desperate calls by Samy Vellu or his assistants to them, were ignored. They were not interested in talking to the MIC, they considered it a failure.

It all culminated in a massive rally of 30,000 Indians in Kuala Lumpur in December, 2007. The BN, led by an out-of-touch Abdullah Baddawi, proceeded to completely mishandle the situation. They used brute force to quell the demonstration, beating protestors and arresting them in the hundreds. Among the protestors, interestingly, were many MIC members.

The authorities even burst into the Batu Caves temple to arrest the demonstrators. Unusually and unexpectedly for what had hitherto been a timid community, the protestors fought back with whatever they could lay their hands on. They were defiant. Central KL became a battleground and tear gas hung on the streets like morning mist. Police shouted, protestors shouted, arrests were resisted, chase the protestors from a spot and they would take it right back when the police moved away.

All this was captured on camera, mostly cell-phone cameras. It was burned on CDs and would be distributed nationwide during the 2008 elections. Still using old tactics against a new reality, the AG threatened to charge some of the protestors with attempted murder for injuring a policemen with a stone. Some of those charged were students. The Indian Electorate turned into a furious mass. Released detainees became instant local heroes. Those who had been in the protests would tell their stories over and over again to admiring friends. Being arrested, from a mark of shame, became a badge of honour.

MIC officials learned to keep a low profile, Samy Velu became a most hated figure, and making negative comments against a Hindraf leader could result in assault. Some of the Hindraf leaders were arrested under the ISA, though a few of them had done little more than make a speech or two. More anger and outrage followed. Photos in wallets and prayers in temples became the order of the day. The MIC was unwelcome in most places. Samy Velu was accompanied by Rela and could not enter certain areas.

Pyschological breakthrough

Three months later, Abullah Baddawi called the 2008 General Elections. The MIC was decimated. They would only win 3 out their 9 parliament seats. Samy Velu was unceremoniously booted out of his own seat in Sungai Siput. Palanivel, the Deputy President, would also lose. The Indians, including MIC members, voted for the opposition everywhere. They would campaign for PAS, proudly carrying it’s flags, where once it would have been unthinkable for them to associate with PAS. Everything had changed.

The Barisan itself would suffer stunning reverses though this was not just because of the Indian vote. Discontent had also been brewing nationwide among all the other voters. And Pakatan offered by their alliance, for the first time, a real alternative to the BN. But where the Indians would have held the opposition back by steadfastly voting for the BN, they now empowered it by giving them their votes.

Fast forward to today and the urban Indian vote is still with the opposition. The MIC continues to hold no appeal for them. As for the rural and estate-based Indian vote, the MIC claims it is returning to them. This is, of course, what they would say. It is the only way for them to have any clout in Barisan. It is the only way they will continue to be the recipients of funds, positions or contracts.

Umno appears to be giving them the benefit of the doubt, though they hedge their bets by also supporting fledgling Indian-based parties which are pro-BN. The MIC’s functions and gatherings are poor indicators, as they invariably include the handing out of cheap sarees and other inducements, including food, for attendance. One cannot really know why the attendees are there. By-election results mean nothing as voters behave quite differently during General Elections.

What has definitely changed is that the MIC faces voters who have changed their stance, who have gone to the ballot box and crossed PKR or PAS or DAP instead of the BN. It is a psychological breakthrough. The Indian voter has tasted freedom of choice and it will not be easy to make them give it up.

Pakatan and HRP

Pakatan meanwhile has ramped up attention to the Indian voter. Penang has an Indian Deputy Chief Minister, a first. BN had never done this. Perak’s state government appointed an Indian Speaker, before they were overthrown. BN, when they took over Perak, also appointed an Indian Speaker; proof of the benefits of a two-party system. Selangor has appointed Indians to various posts.

There is, of course, the HRP. They are on their own. No national coalition can touch them, as it would antagonize the Malay vote-bank and many other voters. The HRP is viewed as a racist party by many. They deny this and say that they fighting for the Indians because they are the most marginalized. This if, of course, not strictly true. In terms of national percentage, it is the Malays who make up 70% or more of the poor. Though there is no doubt that the Indians are suffering, thanks to 50 years of neglect and mismanagement by the MIC. If HRP would take a multi-racial stand they may be able to better help their supporters, yet they continue to attempt to fight racism with racism.

They have stated that they will be standing in several seats, the latest that they will stand in 5 State and one Parliament seat in Kedah. It is not clear whether they say this because they plan to actually stand, or whether they state this as a bargaining position. Or whether they say this to keep their supporters spirits up. It doesn’t really matter, because no one will bargain with them.

If they do actually stand, their vote bank will be limited purely to the Indians. They will not be able to win a single seat and it will be an exercise in futility. Their voters will come from both the MIC and Pakatan camps, effectively cancelling each other out! So the HRP will make little difference to the final result. It is not too late for them to embrace multi-racial politics, of course, but they will have to remake themselves rather quickly.

The Indian voter will have to look at himself not in isolation but as a part of the whole. Pakatan has a solution in the MEA (Malaysian Economic Agenda) where all the poor will be helped. The Buku Jingga contains concrete and thought-out solutions to the economic problems that Malaysia faces today. Economic problems that the BN is clearly not competent to solve; as they seem to think rising prices can be combatted by raising prices! And Indian problems are largely economic. The best solution, for the Indians, would be to embrace multi-racial, transparent and democratic parties which will work for the good of all Malaysians.

If the Indians are to progress, with the rest of Malaysia, they will have to go with Pakatan in this coming General Election.

- Malaysia Chronicle