Mahathir's shadow looms large over ISA, Emergency law repeals

Statesmen never die, they merely fade away into the annals of history but ex-premier Mahathir Mohamad is an exception - he just keeps on talking and calling the shots. No surprise that in the weeks leading up to the ISA repeals proposed by Prime Minister Najib Razak, the grand old man of Malaysian politics was issuing statements right, front and centre.

History is repeating itself, for we all remember that Mahathir was highly vocal when the call came for Abdullah Badawi's ouster, to the point that Mahathir stated that he may have made a mistake in choosing Badawi as his successor. Would Mahathir say the same for Najib now?

Already Mahathir is of the opinion that a delay in the calling for GE-13 would be better for BN and would allow time for Najib to review his list of candidates. But many pundits say Najib’s problems have nothing to do with the candidates list and everything to do with his inability to be prime minister for all Malaysians.

Perhaps this is the crux of the problem. Najib is only prime minister of his UMNO party. He owes the premiership to the UMNO supreme council because he hasn't bothered to seek a mandate of his own despite taking over from Badawi since April 2009.

Currying favor after a plunge in popularity

Najib’s popularity now stands at 59 per cent, a leap away from his highest rating of 79 per cent in May 2010. And though the initial knee-jerk reaction from those around him was laughable, the slip in popularity was taken seriously by the ruling elite and further strengthens the idea that any call for election within the immediate time-frame would prove disastrous for Najib and BN. For Najib to remain as Prime Minister; he needs to win GE-13 and win big.

Thus, the call for reforms by Najib may merely be a move to curry favor from middle Malaysia, many of whom have decided that they should vote anything but UMNO in GE13.

The call to rid Malaysia of the Internal Security Act, the end of the 3 emergency declarations and the annulment of a key clause in the Publications and Printing Presses Act are all aimed to win back middle Malaysia and the intellectual youths. Yet, in doing away with all these things especially the ISA, Najib is sending a message to Mahathir - that he is the boss and Mahathir has to accept that.

The simplistic approach taken by Najib to publicly announce the end of the ISA is contrary to Mahathir's views. When asked recently, Mahathir said the ISA was still relevant. In September 2007, Mahathir had said that if the people felt that the ISA was no longer good and valid for Malaysia, then they should vote in parliamentarians who were against such laws. But until then, the ISA would stay. “Its up to the Government and the people to decide. This is a democratic country”.

Mahathir's remark still holds true, even with Najib’s promise to end the ISA. Parliamentarians still need to debate and approve the repeal of the ISA. Many BN parliamentarians have been staunch supporters of the ISA and may not support the abolishment unless they receive firm instruction to do so from their party heads. In the divided UMNO leadership, this means two contrasting sets of instructions may be issued to their MPs. The hardliners aligned to Mahathir may decide not to support Najib's repeal.

The same can be said about the 3 emergency declarations. Mahathir kept these 3 emergency declarations intact throughout his 22-year rule. Why would he wish to do away with them now, when he faces the strongest challenge to his power? Make no mistake, Mahathir may have retired in 2003 but he still calls the shots for many of the things that happen in Malaysia.

Another Najib fiasco

A state of emergency allows security forces to act against anyone they deem a threat to national security without the need to present them before a court of law. A case in hand was the detainment of the PSM 6 under the Emergency Ordinance. The 6 members have yet to stand within a proper court of law to address the charges against them. Under the guise of an Emergency Ordinance, BN has been able to maintain a firm grip on their opponents.

So one needs to wonder what Mahathir will whisper to his lieutenants in UMNO upon hearing that the very vehicle the party has used against its political rivals is to be removed.

No doubt about it, things are heating up in the background among the UMNO elites. Chances are high there may be a reversal of sorts when the party actually gets to grip with all the groundwork needed to implement Najib's promises. Mahathir's faction may not directly challenge the ISA's removal as that would make them look like extremists but they will ensure that the new replacement laws Najib also promised will give them the same protection.

So in the end, what has Najib done. He has tried to strike out on his own but did not dare to challenge Mahathir head on. Hence, the placatory replacement laws. Again, Najib's political honesty and sincerity is in doubt and Malaysians are beginning to demand that before any general election takes place, not only should the repeal leg of all the oppressive laws be completed, but also the replacements laws be made known and agreed upon. This is to ensure that a situation of falling from the frying pan into the fire does not occur. Again, is this feasible given the time that needs to be taken to draft the new laws.

It looks that the ISA reforms may fizzle out in the style of Najib's previous proposals such as the New Economic Model. Without political will and courage, it is really a waste of time to give the populace false hope.

For real change to happen in Malaysia, there must be real reform and this means a total removal of the current state of affairs. Simply making announcements would not do justice to those who have been fighting for years against the ISA and the Emergency laws.

- Malaysia Chronicle